It's apparently dart board season as everyone is treating Carroll's ass like a dart board. I have a friend who loves Seattle, loves Russell Wilson, loves Marshawn Lynch, etc. but hates Pete Carroll and will tell you to a man that the Seahawks should have won in 2012 as well but Pete Carroll blew that 2 round game to Atlanta, as he twice elected not to kick field goals that if he had kicked would have won Seattle the game.
I point out that even if this was true and they won the game they would still have had 2 games to play-against the 49ers who went on to lose the Super Bowl to the Ravens and then the Ravens. Yet, he's totally convinced that Seattle would have won both these games.
For me, I'm much less certain about that. One thing that impresses me when looking at economics is how difficult it is to prove a counterfactual to do more than point out a correlation that proves your point-those aren't so hard to find-but really to establish correlation.
To me, you just never know what might have happened if what did in fact happen hadn't happened. Maybe this is part of what Hegel meant when he said 'The real is the rational and the rational is the real.'
It's not clear at all to me that Seattle would have definitely beaten either Baltimore or San Francisco back in 2012, it's not even certain to me that they would have beaten Atllanta had they gone for the field goals. Maybe something else would have happened. Maybe they got a field goal but then on the kick off Atlanta had a return TD or maybe the field goal would have been blocked, or maybe if Seattle got the FG, Atlanta is forced to score again. I mean you don't know what would have happened.
Still, not many sound like me right now. My friend is loving all the criticism that Carroll is getting as he thinks it shows the world has finally figured out that he's right. How many really notable Hall of Fame QBs and players and coaches have declared that this was the worst call in Super Bowl history.
Mike Lupica checked in today to say that Russell Wilson deserves just as much blame as Carroll and offensive coordinator Darell Bevell,
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/lupica-give-russell-wilson-pass-super-bowl-int-article-1.2102516
I don't really understand his reasoning. He admits that it wasn't Wilson's call but argues that the QB should have at least executed it better-maybe that's true; maybe he could have thrown it lower and not in the middle of the end zone.
It seems to me that Bevell may even have a point that Ricardo Lockette at 6 foot 2 211 pounds didn't do much of a job fighting for the ball against the 5 foot 11 190 pound safety, Malcolm Butler. Still overall I just feel the blame game kind of misses the point. I don;t see how it's constructive for one thing. If you're Seattle you don't want to start cannibalizing yourself over this.
As for fans and pundits, obviously this is what it's about-we want to analyze and moon over what we saw and who did it right and and who did it wrong. I just really am skeptical that the blame game gets us closer to really understanding what happened here.
Nobody seems intersted in giving the Pats-who were so maligned over deflategate-any credit for the win but just blame the Hawks for losing. More generally as I said, whether in football, econoimcs, politics. business or life, counterfactuals are very hard to prove.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/01/a-market-monetarist-counterfactual.html
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/02/sumner-will-do-anything-to-protect.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29
What all these Carroll bashers aound like who think he's the worst coach ever and should be fired is Sumner when he brags that he beat Krugman in a bet in 2013-just terribly overstating things.
As Daneil Kuehn puts it regarding Sumner's big claims for austerity in 2013, such weak counterfactuals shouldn't lead to such bold claims. I think something like that is happening here regarding Super Bowl 49.
What I'm certainly coninced of in football is this
1. It never comes down to just 1 play
2. No decent coach would ever let his team chalk up a loss to just 1 play.
Seattle didn't deserve to win this game long before the Butler INT. They played very poorly with that 24-14 lead in the 4th quarter. The defense was cut to ribbons by Brady. The offense did nothing to help by going 3 and out repeatedly. In a way, had the Hawks not had that pick, had Marshawn Lynch run for that TD everyone just knows he would have run for even though he was just 1 for 5 this year in similar situations I think it would be fair to say the Pats stole 1, basically backed into 1 as they sure didn't play well down the stretch. If Jermaine Kearse's unbelievable catch had carried the day it would have really been luck for the Pats as the fortuitous way Kearse was able to come up with the ball would cover up how bad they played in the 4th.
The game was lost for more than just that 1 play though that's not what anyone wants to say right now.
I point out that even if this was true and they won the game they would still have had 2 games to play-against the 49ers who went on to lose the Super Bowl to the Ravens and then the Ravens. Yet, he's totally convinced that Seattle would have won both these games.
For me, I'm much less certain about that. One thing that impresses me when looking at economics is how difficult it is to prove a counterfactual to do more than point out a correlation that proves your point-those aren't so hard to find-but really to establish correlation.
To me, you just never know what might have happened if what did in fact happen hadn't happened. Maybe this is part of what Hegel meant when he said 'The real is the rational and the rational is the real.'
It's not clear at all to me that Seattle would have definitely beaten either Baltimore or San Francisco back in 2012, it's not even certain to me that they would have beaten Atllanta had they gone for the field goals. Maybe something else would have happened. Maybe they got a field goal but then on the kick off Atlanta had a return TD or maybe the field goal would have been blocked, or maybe if Seattle got the FG, Atlanta is forced to score again. I mean you don't know what would have happened.
Still, not many sound like me right now. My friend is loving all the criticism that Carroll is getting as he thinks it shows the world has finally figured out that he's right. How many really notable Hall of Fame QBs and players and coaches have declared that this was the worst call in Super Bowl history.
Mike Lupica checked in today to say that Russell Wilson deserves just as much blame as Carroll and offensive coordinator Darell Bevell,
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/lupica-give-russell-wilson-pass-super-bowl-int-article-1.2102516
I don't really understand his reasoning. He admits that it wasn't Wilson's call but argues that the QB should have at least executed it better-maybe that's true; maybe he could have thrown it lower and not in the middle of the end zone.
It seems to me that Bevell may even have a point that Ricardo Lockette at 6 foot 2 211 pounds didn't do much of a job fighting for the ball against the 5 foot 11 190 pound safety, Malcolm Butler. Still overall I just feel the blame game kind of misses the point. I don;t see how it's constructive for one thing. If you're Seattle you don't want to start cannibalizing yourself over this.
As for fans and pundits, obviously this is what it's about-we want to analyze and moon over what we saw and who did it right and and who did it wrong. I just really am skeptical that the blame game gets us closer to really understanding what happened here.
Nobody seems intersted in giving the Pats-who were so maligned over deflategate-any credit for the win but just blame the Hawks for losing. More generally as I said, whether in football, econoimcs, politics. business or life, counterfactuals are very hard to prove.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/01/a-market-monetarist-counterfactual.html
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/02/sumner-will-do-anything-to-protect.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29
What all these Carroll bashers aound like who think he's the worst coach ever and should be fired is Sumner when he brags that he beat Krugman in a bet in 2013-just terribly overstating things.
As Daneil Kuehn puts it regarding Sumner's big claims for austerity in 2013, such weak counterfactuals shouldn't lead to such bold claims. I think something like that is happening here regarding Super Bowl 49.
What I'm certainly coninced of in football is this
1. It never comes down to just 1 play
2. No decent coach would ever let his team chalk up a loss to just 1 play.
Seattle didn't deserve to win this game long before the Butler INT. They played very poorly with that 24-14 lead in the 4th quarter. The defense was cut to ribbons by Brady. The offense did nothing to help by going 3 and out repeatedly. In a way, had the Hawks not had that pick, had Marshawn Lynch run for that TD everyone just knows he would have run for even though he was just 1 for 5 this year in similar situations I think it would be fair to say the Pats stole 1, basically backed into 1 as they sure didn't play well down the stretch. If Jermaine Kearse's unbelievable catch had carried the day it would have really been luck for the Pats as the fortuitous way Kearse was able to come up with the ball would cover up how bad they played in the 4th.
The game was lost for more than just that 1 play though that's not what anyone wants to say right now.
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