We discussed the emerging Compromise Caucus among a-perhaps significant-minority among Senate Republicans. The CC has people like McCain, Lindsey Graham (SC), and Bob Corker (Ten). What's notable is that they have reputations as being moderates-as moderate as GOPers get in 2013 which is not very-and also military hawks which makes them all the more eager to sit down with Democrats and come up with a replacement for the sequester.
The thought has been that the CC is going to come up logger heads with McConnell;s faction. McConnell has since 2009 been very successful in enforcing party discipline and getting the members of his party to follow him lockstep-which has made the Senate a 60 vote super-majority body even for what had always been routine and small matters.
However, it's very interesting who has said they don't support using the debt ceiling to force through spending cuts or to end Obamacare. Roy Blunt-the Senate minority whip and someone who is close to McConnell. If he won't support debt ceiling chicken this would seem to bode very well that the Senate at least will be able to raise the debt ceiling and send it over to the House-totally putting Boehner on the hot seat again.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/roy-blunt-no-debt-ceiling-hostage-taking-over?ref=fpb
Boehner is increasingly in the hot seat. He is damned if he does or if he doesn't. He knows very well that he has to raise the debt ceiling that not doing so is not an option-which means it's not leverage. However, the Tea Party House Republicans are adamant about not raising the debt ceiling without all the hostages.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/07/today-in.html
The Speaker is truly between a rock and a hard place. It's suggested that it will be very hard to keep this job for the full term.
"Every time this happens, the next betrayal gets trickier. The fall will bring a quick succession of events — a possible government shutdown and a debt ceiling fight — merely to avoid calamity. If Boehner gets through those events, plus stiffing conservatives on the Benghazi investigation, he’ll be facing a potential open rebellion even before he tries to cut some kind of deal on immigration. If Boehner holds on to his job through the next election I’ll be surprised and impressed. The walls are closing in on him."
Well, he himself said after being confirmed again for Speaker in January that he needs this job like a hole in the head. Regarding Blunt:
"GOP Senator Roy Blunt is not normally thought of as a “maverick” in the mold of John McCain. But this morning, Blunt came out and broke with GOP plans to stage a confrontation over the debt ceiling — which will also include a push to defund Obamacare, if Tea Party lawmakers get their way — putting Blunt at least partly in McCain’s new Compromise Caucus."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/24/another-gop-senator-breaks-with-debt-ceiling-hostage-strategy/
While he of course reiterates that he hates Obamacare he admits that using the debt ceiling to re-litigate this is not the way to go and that tying it to 'any specific thing' is not the way to go. He also admits that the better hope for Republicans getting a deal with the Dems is entitlement cuts rather than discretionary cuts. I don't like entitlement cuts either as is true of many liberals.
The difference is that Obama and the Dems have at least left that door open-chained CPI, raising the Medicare age. If Senate Republicans go this way then at least they're in the posture of negotiations rather than making huge categorical demands that they aren't ever going to get. At a minimum Senate Republicans are rethinking the McConnell Rules. As Sargent says, this may really force Boehner's hand.
"All of this will continue to feed optimism among Democrats that a sizable bloc of Republican Senators has had it with the current GOP scorched earth obstructionism and hostility to basic governing compromises. (As I noted the other day, keep an eye on the transportation bill for more clues.) The question here is really whether yet another round of confrontation around the debt limit and funding the government will leave this growing bloc no alternative but to publicly break with the leadership/Tea Party alliance, which could conceivably end up helping to force the House GOP to cave."
The thought has been that the CC is going to come up logger heads with McConnell;s faction. McConnell has since 2009 been very successful in enforcing party discipline and getting the members of his party to follow him lockstep-which has made the Senate a 60 vote super-majority body even for what had always been routine and small matters.
However, it's very interesting who has said they don't support using the debt ceiling to force through spending cuts or to end Obamacare. Roy Blunt-the Senate minority whip and someone who is close to McConnell. If he won't support debt ceiling chicken this would seem to bode very well that the Senate at least will be able to raise the debt ceiling and send it over to the House-totally putting Boehner on the hot seat again.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/roy-blunt-no-debt-ceiling-hostage-taking-over?ref=fpb
Boehner is increasingly in the hot seat. He is damned if he does or if he doesn't. He knows very well that he has to raise the debt ceiling that not doing so is not an option-which means it's not leverage. However, the Tea Party House Republicans are adamant about not raising the debt ceiling without all the hostages.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/07/today-in.html
The Speaker is truly between a rock and a hard place. It's suggested that it will be very hard to keep this job for the full term.
"Every time this happens, the next betrayal gets trickier. The fall will bring a quick succession of events — a possible government shutdown and a debt ceiling fight — merely to avoid calamity. If Boehner gets through those events, plus stiffing conservatives on the Benghazi investigation, he’ll be facing a potential open rebellion even before he tries to cut some kind of deal on immigration. If Boehner holds on to his job through the next election I’ll be surprised and impressed. The walls are closing in on him."
Well, he himself said after being confirmed again for Speaker in January that he needs this job like a hole in the head. Regarding Blunt:
"GOP Senator Roy Blunt is not normally thought of as a “maverick” in the mold of John McCain. But this morning, Blunt came out and broke with GOP plans to stage a confrontation over the debt ceiling — which will also include a push to defund Obamacare, if Tea Party lawmakers get their way — putting Blunt at least partly in McCain’s new Compromise Caucus."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/24/another-gop-senator-breaks-with-debt-ceiling-hostage-strategy/
While he of course reiterates that he hates Obamacare he admits that using the debt ceiling to re-litigate this is not the way to go and that tying it to 'any specific thing' is not the way to go. He also admits that the better hope for Republicans getting a deal with the Dems is entitlement cuts rather than discretionary cuts. I don't like entitlement cuts either as is true of many liberals.
The difference is that Obama and the Dems have at least left that door open-chained CPI, raising the Medicare age. If Senate Republicans go this way then at least they're in the posture of negotiations rather than making huge categorical demands that they aren't ever going to get. At a minimum Senate Republicans are rethinking the McConnell Rules. As Sargent says, this may really force Boehner's hand.
"All of this will continue to feed optimism among Democrats that a sizable bloc of Republican Senators has had it with the current GOP scorched earth obstructionism and hostility to basic governing compromises. (As I noted the other day, keep an eye on the transportation bill for more clues.) The question here is really whether yet another round of confrontation around the debt limit and funding the government will leave this growing bloc no alternative but to publicly break with the leadership/Tea Party alliance, which could conceivably end up helping to force the House GOP to cave."
"If there is anything that can deepen this schism, you’d think it would be another debt ceiling confrontation. The House GOP’s leadership’s position — yes, we caved last time, and yes, we know the debt ceiling must be raised to avoid wrecking the economy, but all of Washington must pretend the debt limit gives us leverage anyway, because the Tea Partyers want another confrontation — is so obviously ludicrous that it’s become impossible to ignore. Beyond this, what remains to be seen is whether enough Republican Senators are coming around to the position that the GOP’s overall posture is not tenable over the long term, and if so, what they are prepared to do about it."
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