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Monday, July 22, 2013

Was Last Week's Reid-McCain Filibuster Deal Just the Beginning?

       There's been a fair amount of speculation that last week's deal where Reid and the Senate Democrats got a deal on the filibuster and the executive nominee by working around Mitch McConnell may betray a larger rupture where many moderate Republicans have had enough of McConnell's scorched earth obstruction on all matters great or small; it's not just moderates vs. hardliners but also perhaps military hawks vs.fiscal hawks, or so Dems hope. If this is where the fault-lines reside then maybe a deal with two Senate Repubs who are both often on the moderate side but also very much military hawks-McCain himself and South Carolina's Lindsay Graham.

     "In particular, the fact that John McCain and other Republicans seemed impatient with the overall oppositional posture driving GOP filibustering — and their use of obstructionist tactics explicitly to render government dysfunctional for political and ideological reasons — has caught Democrats’ attention. For instance, check out what Lindsey Graham had to say about GOP opposition to Richard Cordray, Obama’s pick to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau:

“Cordray was being filibustered because we don’t like the law” that created the consumer agency, said Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina. “That’s not a reason to deny someone their appointment. We were wrong.”
   
       "The fact that Republicans were opposing Cordray out of ideological hostility to the agency itself, and not because of the nominee, was a key distinction Dems tried to draw as justification for threatening to change the rules by simple majority. Here is a GOP Senator on record confirming the Dem argument."

   
     In this same vein see also

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/18/is-mitch-mcconnell-losing-control-of-his-caucus/

     We are already seeing the outline of a 'compromise caucus.' The CC-McCain, Graham, Bob Corker-want to negotiate a deal with the Dems on the budget. The obstructionist caucus-OC- wants more hostage situations.


     "This quote from Senator John Cornyn — a member of the intransigent bloc — perfectly captures the fault line between these two groups:
Already, the fault lines are showing. McCain and Sen. Lindsey Graham — more focused on the Pentagon’s needs — are open to Democratic demands for new tax revenues if they get a deal to shut off the automatic spending cuts known as the sequester. Cornyn flatly rejected that idea on Thursday.
“We’d all love to have a grand bargain, but not on the president’s terms – which is more taxes after a $600 billion tax increase in January,” Cornyn said.    
     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/19/the-morning-plum-among-senate-republicans-a-new-compromise-caucus-emerges/

       As Sargent says, this is what the Dems face and teh question is whether there are enough Senate Republicans tired of this posture. The latest comments from McCain suggests that there's reason for hope.

    "... it is noteworthy that in an interview, McCain has now said the American people will not put up with another round of GOP debt limit and government shutdown “shenanigans.” McCain also bluntly warned House Republicans against using the debt limit fight to gain the repeal of Obamacare, which he said “is not going to happen.”
     
      "McCain made the claims in an interview with radio host Michael Medved late Friday (audio was sent my way by his show). Asked for his take on the coming debt limit battle, McCain said:
“Some of my Republican colleagues are already saying we won’t raise the debt limit unless there’s repeal of Obamacare. I’d love to repeal Obamacare, but I promise you that’s not going to happen on the debt limit. So some would like to set up another one of these shutdown-the-government threats. And most Americans are really tired of those kinds of shenanigans here in Washington.”
     "Asked if he would demand any concessions in exchange for a debt limit hike, McCain continued:
“What I would like to see is serious negotiations to eliminate the sequester, and progress on facing up to this deficit that is sooner or later going to harm our children and our grandchildren.”

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/22/mccain-to-republicans-forget-about-any-more-crazy-debt-ceiling-hostage-taking/
     
    This certainly gives reason for optimism. Yes, technically speaking, we have seem a lot of deficit reduction already-so if all that matters is deficit reduction our grandchildren are well taken care of-the question is are we going to survive long enough to conceive them..\
    
     Nevertheless, this shows that McCain wants to negotiate and understands that the debt ceiling is not the way to achieve policy objectives. Again, it doesn't hurt that he's a hawk and so surely wants to mitigate the deep Pentagon cuts.  At the end of the day, the GOP doesn't have any more 'leverage' to use the debt ceiling now than they did in February. The question is whether we can actually get a deal on the budget. At least, McCain and friends sound like they want one-and decidedly don't want anymore debt ceiling chicken. 

    

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