What does it say when we have to go to him for optimism? Yet, while Bush was certainly one of my least favorite President's ever, he does have a pretty admirable record on immigration reform.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/07/this-would-be-good-time-for-gop-to.html
Right now the conventional wisdom is that immigration reform is DOA in the House. As Greg Sargent notes, Politico had a piece predicting that while trying to seem against conventional wisdom. Yet conventional wisdom believes it's DOA so it's not clear how their piece bucks cw. To the contrary, the Politico piece is the conventional wisdom.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/10/the-morning-plum-house-gop-stares-into-abyss-on-immigration/
Yet, the former President thinks we can get it done as long as we maintain a benevolent spirit.
"In brief remarks at a naturalization ceremony at his presidential library in Dallas, Bush avoided wading into the merits of specific legislation pending in Congress, but said it was important for lawmakers to recognize the benefits of immigration to the nation’s future. While he didn’t directly endorse a Senate-approved plan his comments suggested the need for Republicans to deal with immigration reform in a broad way."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/07/this-would-be-good-time-for-gop-to.html
Right now the conventional wisdom is that immigration reform is DOA in the House. As Greg Sargent notes, Politico had a piece predicting that while trying to seem against conventional wisdom. Yet conventional wisdom believes it's DOA so it's not clear how their piece bucks cw. To the contrary, the Politico piece is the conventional wisdom.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/07/10/the-morning-plum-house-gop-stares-into-abyss-on-immigration/
Yet, the former President thinks we can get it done as long as we maintain a benevolent spirit.
"In brief remarks at a naturalization ceremony at his presidential library in Dallas, Bush avoided wading into the merits of specific legislation pending in Congress, but said it was important for lawmakers to recognize the benefits of immigration to the nation’s future. While he didn’t directly endorse a Senate-approved plan his comments suggested the need for Republicans to deal with immigration reform in a broad way."
“I don’t intend to get involved in the politics or the specifics of policy, but I do hope there’s a positive resolution to the debate,” he said. “And I hope, during the debate, we keep a benevolent spirit in mind, and we understand the contributions immigrants make to our country.”
The only thing we have to do now is find out where this benevolent spirit resides in the House and focus there. This shouldn't be hard to find. Oh, wait.
The GOP is meeting today to figure out what their strategy is going to be. However, it seems what quite likely to happen is the House GOP offers piecemeal reform. As Chuck Schumer says there are 5 options for the House GOP.
“[D]oing nothing; opting for a piecemeal approach of several separate but related immigration bills; passing a comprehensive bill that does not include a path to citizenship; passing a comprehensive bill that does include a path to citizenship that is different, and likely stricter, than the one offered in the Senate bill; or taking up the legislation that has passed the Senate.”
The most likely choices will focus on piecemeal reform and even more draconian demands for securing the border-with it being declared absolutely safe before we even begin to start talking about the path to citizenship kicking in. Schumer has been very clear that it's a waste of time for the GOP House to bring a bill to conference without a path to citizenship.
As we noted yesterday morning, if immigration reform has a pulse, it’s very weak. Shortly afterward, it became undetectable. The key moment came when Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) — the leading Democratic author of the Senate’s immigration bill — laid things out for House Speaker John Boehner.
“Without a path to citizenship, there is not going to be a bill,” he said. “There can’t be a bill.”
Nancy Pelosi in theory is going along with Boehner's song and dance about the need for the House to come up with its own bill. She also says she has no problem with a piecemeal approach.
She does make clear however, that this piecemeal approach can only work if certain important core elements are included in any immigration bill. In a letter to Boehner today she writes:
"House Democrats’ priorities for immigration reform are the principles laid out by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, with commitments to secure our borders, protect our workers, unite our families, and provide an earned pathway to citizenship. Each of these elements has bipartisan support. [...]"
"Mr. Speaker: if you decide to take up various elements of comprehensive immigration reform under separate votes, it is essential to remember that those key elements are interconnected and necessary for reform."
What this really comes down to is what it's always come down to: will Boehner flout the Hastert Rule or not. That's the question. Whatever would be needed to get the majority of House Republicnas likely wouldn't include the path to citizenship and will also likely demand even more draconian border security measures than in the Senate bill-which went quite far in this regard itself.
Despite the pessimism of conventional wisdom right now I still think ultimately Boehner lets it come to a vote. As Sargent argues, what it comes down to is how many House Republicans behind the scenes give their permission to Boehner to let it come up. In the end if they let this die the GOP has literally learned nothing. I don't think they've learned much but I think the House leadership-Boehner, Cantor, Ryan are too sane to let this go down.
I don't have much faith in the GOP being too sane. However. I to think the establishment is too sane to let this one go down. I think that they know the belief that there are these 'downscale whites' on the sidelines in 2012 that will come back in 2016 is simply bunk.
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