He had demanded big concessions in February and the President refused to offer anything and then he allowed the debt ceiling to be raised with nothing to show for it. For some reason he seems to think that just because Obama wouldn't negotiate on a debt ceiling hike last time, this time he will offer to repeal Obamacare, along with many billions of dollars of other cuts. So Boehner claims to think in any case:
"House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Tuesday that the House would not vote to raise the debt ceiling without spending cuts, setting up a potential fight with President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats."
"House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Tuesday that the House would not vote to raise the debt ceiling without spending cuts, setting up a potential fight with President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats."
"We're not going to raise the debt ceiling without real cuts in spending. It's as simple as that," he said at a press conference.
"I believe the so-called Boehner Rule is the right formula for getting that done," he said, referring to the notion that any increase in the statutory debt limit should be accompanied by an equivalent amount of spending cuts.
So what's changed that means that now holding his breath till he turns blue works?
"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) rejected the idea on Tuesday. "We are not negotiating on the debt ceiling," he said. "I don't know how many more times we need to say that."
So it could be that we have something of an impasse here. Boehner is on record acknowledging that failing to raise the debt ceiling is unthinkable. Yet here is is yet again threatening the unthinkable. One reason for this is that the Tea Party base in the House feels it's owed this.
"His leadership team backed down earlier this year in the face of Democrats’ insistence that they won’t negotiate on the debt ceiling, convincing members to vote to increase temporarily the limit in exchange for forcing Senate Democrats to pass a budget. He now faces a conference full of vocal lawmakers who are demanding actual spending cuts and insist they won’t settle for anything less. Already aggrieved by the possibility of leadership violating the majority-of-the-majority principle on matters like immigration reform and the farm bill, they’re working to back Boehner into a corner."
Yet at the end of the day, what's changed? Isn't the calculus the same as it was in February? Back then, Boehner admitted there's no way the debt ceiling doesn't get raised. Now he's claiming there is a chance he won't allow it to?
Meanwhile, we talked about the emerging Compromise Caucus in the Senate. These Republican Senators are tired of gridlock and not getting anything done. Last week they agreed to allow Obama's 7 executive nominees to get a vote. They also don't want another game of debt ceiling chicken.
The CC is composed of more moderate Republican Senators but also often more hawkish as well-and so anxious to get a deal to replace the sequester that has cut so deeply into the Pentagon.
Meanwhile, a significant faction of more moderate Senate Republicans, tired of going alongwith routine obstruction, are rising up against tea party conservatives and pushing for more cooperation with Democrats, be it on the budget, immigration or presidential nominees.
“I do think that some folks are starting to re-evaluate the consequence of giving a handful of very junior, very ideological Senators the unfettered ability to drive our side,” said an aide to a veteran Republican senator, speaking on condition of anonymity. “I think we may have learned in the recent crisis that having the sheer volume of objections at the same time is not in our interests. It makes it harder to argue the high ground.”
As for Boehner, I think a good guess is that he's bluffing. However, if he's not it's not going to work anymore than it did in February.
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