Polls: Obama Catches Up With Romney on Job Creation

      There have been many attempts to minimize it-today it was to focus like a laser on the one poll from ABC and the Washington Post that showed Obama only up by 49-48; ignoring others like CNN and Gallup which both show him up by 6-and at or above 50%.

      Nothing brings home his bounce more, however, that he's now tied or leading even in job creation-the one area that Romney has typically led by about 6 points. Of course, time will tell, but in the short term at least, Obama caught Romney on the one area he had an advantage.

      "Obama is more trusted than Romney on job creation — according to Rasmussen! This comes after CNN and the Post both found them tied on the economy, so it’s fair to ask if Obama is successfully neutralizing Romney’s main advantage."

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line

      Incidentally, it's now being suggested that the huge spike on Gallup's consumer confidence survey was driven by the DNC convention. If that's so, then Obama and the Dems were more successful than their wildest dreams in turning around this narrative. I've never got why Romney was favored on the economy anyway. But the Dems found a way to turn it around at least in the short term.

      CNN's numbers also vouchsafe with Gallup's in finding the President's approval numbers spiked as well, CNN shows him at 51%, Gallup shows him at 50 with 43% disapproving.

     Indeed, of course we don't know yet if Obama's bounce will hold, however, it's really notable that it's shown up in Rasmussen and Gallup-both which have had a Republican bias all year-Rasmussen by design, no doubt, but Gallup noticeably has as well. The move he's seen in Gallup is very notable and certainly means this could be a qualitative change in the race.

    As it has been noted, this race has been similar to 2004 in many ways, and it was after Kerry like Romney actually lost a point and Bush gained from his convention that he started to pull away. We'll see if we get the same here.

   I wonder why they claim Obama only got a 3 point bounce-they only look at his own number which went from 47 to 50 on Gallup. But the leave out that Romney lost 2  points himself. From that angle, Obama in truth has gained 5 points until now. As Romney actually lost a point in his, Obama has actually gained 6 points cumulatively.

   I would say that until now, Romney has actually been weaker than Kerry who did lead throughout much of the Summer.

   In some ways 2012 has been more like 1996-though everyone thinks the opposite. Just like in 1996-or for that matter 1972-Obama has led throughout, albeit by much smaller margins than 1996-to say nothing of Nixon's landslide over McGovern.

   I've said it before, but you have to appreciate how rare it is for incumbents to lose-provided they are not primaried by their own party.

   Herbert Hoover is the only exception since 1900-previous to the 20th century, incumbents lost much more often.

   And no, for the record. Obama is not Herbert Hoover, George W. Bush is-as the polls bare out, Americans fault him for this recession not Obama.