There's clearly some disagreement as to whether this was a good vote for the Republican Senator from New Hampshire or not. The NRA believes so:
"The National Rifle Association and the National Shooting Sports Foundation each began running radio ads Monday in New Hampshire commending and thanking Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) for her opposition to legislation that would have expanded background checks on gun buyers, the Washington Post reported."
"In the NRA's spot, Ayotte is hailed as someone who "cares about protecting our kids."
“She knows the only way to prevent tragedies like Sandy Hook is to fix our broken mental health system," the ad's narrator said. "That’s why Kelly Ayotte brought Republicans and Democrats together on a bipartisan solution. And it’s why Kelly had the courage to oppose misguided gun-control laws that would not have prevented Sandy Hook.”
"What’s more, note the NRA’s call for constituents to continue flooding Baucus’ office with calls. This morning Politico published an interview with Heidi Heitkamp in which she confirmed she voted against Toomey-Manchin because more calls were coming into her office against it than for it. The NRA has long excelled at mobilizing an impassioned minority to cow lawmakers. And with gun control and liberal groups currently running ads hammering red state Dems over their vote, the NRA evidently recognizes the need to maintain the intensity gap in its favor going forward."
"The National Rifle Association and the National Shooting Sports Foundation each began running radio ads Monday in New Hampshire commending and thanking Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) for her opposition to legislation that would have expanded background checks on gun buyers, the Washington Post reported."
"In the NRA's spot, Ayotte is hailed as someone who "cares about protecting our kids."
“She knows the only way to prevent tragedies like Sandy Hook is to fix our broken mental health system," the ad's narrator said. "That’s why Kelly Ayotte brought Republicans and Democrats together on a bipartisan solution. And it’s why Kelly had the courage to oppose misguided gun-control laws that would not have prevented Sandy Hook.”
So the NRA thinks this is something that Ayotte benefits from bragging about. It also took a shot at Mayor Bloomberg for being a 'big city Mayor who thinks he knows what's best for the rest of us.'
"The ad from NSSF, a national trade association for the firearms industry, took a thinly veiled shot at New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I), whose group "Mayors Against Illegal Guns" had pressured Ayotte to vote in favor of the gun bill that fizzled in the Senate earlier this month."
"Thank you for standing up to political pressure from a big city mayor who thinks he knows what’s best for the rest of us,” the ad's narrator said. “Thank you for protecting the rights of gun owners, hunters and all who cherish the freedoms of our Second Amendment.”
Of course, Bloomberg's group thinks this hurts Ayotte and has already started running anti Ayotte ads in NH. Early poll numbers suggest it may actually be hurting her.
"A survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released last week indicated that Ayotte had suffered a significant backlash in New Hampshire for her opposition to the background checks legislation, with half of her constituents saying they are now less likely to back her for re-election. On Monday, another PPP survey showed that five other senators who voted "no" were also taking heat from their constituents. "
There are a few caveats with that poll; it does show that her approval rating has dropped a lot, but, the previous poll was last December so we can't know for sure how much of it is due to this vote. It's true that those other Senators mentioned were also hurt, however, I don't know that any of them can give you their numbers just prior to the vote till just after it.
However, a Gallup poll clearly shows that Americans wanted that bill passed by a 65%-29% margin. Democrats favored it by a 86%-12%, Independents by a 64%-30% margin; what's interesting is that while you would expect Republicans to support it's failure they do so only by a 50%-45% margin.
If the NRA wants to really help Ayotte are they doing it by continuing to remind people of this unpopular vote?
The counter theory that the NRA takes comfort in is that supposedly even if those who opposed background checks are in the minority there's overall they gun rights side has more passion an intensity on it's side. What this argument amounts to is the hope that the tail can continue to wag the dog in perpetuity.
That the minority will keep getting it's way as it wants it more strongly than the majority does. Yet, Mayor Bloomberg's group and others suggests this may be changing. I do think that Newtown was a game changer and that there is now a lot of intensity on the gun control side; more than we've seen in many years.
My guess is that the NRA may be ready to suffer for hubris soon. It's good for it if others fear it as much as some clearly do-the great NRA lobby which gave the Republicans Congress in 1994, as President Clinton himself believed.
At this point, however, maybe they're beginning to believe their own press even tough there's plenty of reason to believe that they're far from invincible-a number in Congress won while defying them in 2012.
Those who think this last vote shows that the NRA lobby is invincible after all, are buying into the hype. After all, 55 Senators supported the bill-which in anything but a totally dysfunctional body like the Senate is an impressive majority; Reagan had 54% of the vote in 1980 and that was a landslide.
Everything points to the fact that this was just the first round; as we've seen in previous posts, gun control usually passes only with a lag-even President Kennedy's assassination wasn't enough to get gun control measures passed; this required the assassination of his brother Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, to boot.
Clearly, the NRA knows this isn't the last gasp with it's new aggressive ad defending a Democrat, something it doesn't do too often. The Democrat in question is also interesting: Max Baucus of Montana who's retiring. The ad urges people to call his office and thank him for his no vote-suggesting his vote could be reachable in the future:
"This is noteworthy, beyond the fact that the NRA — which usually reserves most of its firepower for use on behalf of Republicans — is aggressively propping up a Democrat. It suggests the NRA may still believe Baucus is gettable as a vote for Manchin-Toomey. Buzzfeed’s Ben Smith yesterday laid out an unlikely but possible scenario in which Baucus, who is retiring, gets won over after sustained pressure and flips a few red state Dems and even a Republican or two with him. As Smith puts it, “he has nothing to lose.”
"What’s more, note the NRA’s call for constituents to continue flooding Baucus’ office with calls. This morning Politico published an interview with Heidi Heitkamp in which she confirmed she voted against Toomey-Manchin because more calls were coming into her office against it than for it. The NRA has long excelled at mobilizing an impassioned minority to cow lawmakers. And with gun control and liberal groups currently running ads hammering red state Dems over their vote, the NRA evidently recognizes the need to maintain the intensity gap in its favor going forward."
Today Chuck Schumer predicted that Manchin-Toomey will get another vote, and John McCain agreed with him.
“I think we’re going to bring this bill back before the end of the year and I think you may find some changes,” said Schumer. “I think you may find some changes out there in the public. Lots of senators who thought it was safe to vote against it because of the intensity are not so sure anymore.” Added McCain: “I do agree with Chuck that I think the issue is going to come back.”
"Schumer’s quote strongly suggests negotiations are ongoing among Senators, which dovetails with what I’ve heard, too, and McCain remaining engaged is also key."
Still, Sargent thinks gun control in this session is a long shot and the burden of proof is on advocates to prove they have the firepower.
"None of this is to say that the odds don’t remain very long against anything happening. Indeed, all of this suggests that it’s really on the gun control groups to prove, right now, that a real political price can be extracted from Senators for their No vote.
P.S. The caveat is that Heitkamp got more anti background check calls than for. If you want this bill call your Senator-particularly if you're Senator is Hieitkamp. Baucus, or another Red State Dem or Purple State Repub.
P.S. The caveat is that Heitkamp got more anti background check calls than for. If you want this bill call your Senator-particularly if you're Senator is Hieitkamp. Baucus, or another Red State Dem or Purple State Repub.
"while you would expect Republicans to support it's failure they do so only by a 50%-45% margin."
ReplyDelete... and probably most of those who "supported failure" did so just because they're ALWAYS want to stick it to the half-breed Marxist Kenyan with the foreign sounding "Muslim" name in the White House! Doesn't matter what that subject is! Obama could come out "for prosperity," and they'd oppose it for the same reason.