Another piece by Politico today prominently at the top of the page declares Gun Control Bill in Peril. For all this, it may not be as definitive as the headline suggests.
“The game hasn’t even started yet, let alone over,” said Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., who reached a background check compromise last week with Sen. Patrick Toomey, R-Pa., on which the Senate was preparing to vote."
"In one sign of the bargaining underway, Manchin and Toomey seemed willing to consider a change to their deal that would exempt gun buyers from background checks who live hundreds of miles from licensed firearms dealers, said one Senate aide."
"The change might help win support from senators from Alaska and perhaps North Dakota, said the aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe private discussions."
See also the Politico piece
At the present the threat to the bill seems to be the Red State Dems.
" During his State of the Union address, President Obama repeated — again and again — that the families of Newtown, and other communities torn apart by gun violence, ”deserve a vote.” It was the most powerful passage in his speech, and it resulted in a standing ovation among many members of both parties, with some gazing up at the families themselves, who were seated in the balcony. You can watch this stirring moment right here."
"It’s a safe bet that Senators Mark Begich, Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, Heidi Heitkamp, Max Baucus, and Joe Donnelly – who remain undecided on the Manchin-Toomey compromise on background checks — were among those applauding. So now we’re going to find out: Are these Senators going to make good on that applause?"
"Because right now, the current situation really appears to be that the fate of the proposal rests in the hands of red state Dems. It would be one thing if it were earning enough GOP support to pass without most of them; in that case, Harry Reid might tacitly indicate that he were okay with a No vote. But right now, the only Republicans supporting the bill are Toomey, John McCain, Susan Collins, and Mark Kirk. The only two Republicans who still appear gettable are Dean Heller and Kelly Ayotte. Even with a total of six Republicans, you’d still need virtually all the red state Dems to break the GOP filibuster."
"Senate aides are currently mulling a tweak to the Manchin-Toomey compromise that would exempt certain far flung rural communities in Alaska and North Dakota from some background check requirements. That could win over Heitkamp and Begich. It could also win over another Republican — Lisa Murkowski — which would give Dems a bit more flexibility."
"But all of these details aside, it needs to be restated that these Senators have the option of voting Yes on breaking the filibuster, while voting No on the final vote. In that scenario, the proposal would likely pass with a simple majority. And so, if these Senators continue to hold out, they need to be pressed on whether they really think a proposal that has the support of eight in 10 Americans doesn’t deserve a straight up or down vote, at a time when the Newtown slayings have focused public attention on a problem that continues to claim the lives of thousands of Americans per year. Whatever their final vote, there’s no excuse for them to enable and participate in GOP obstructionism of a proposal with near universal public support."
This is underscored by the fact that the Republican Senate leaders are not trying to "whip" their members against the bill.
"And GOP leaders are not whipping against Manchin-Toomey: An important bit of reporting from Dan Friedman:
Senate Republican leaders will not push their members to vote against a background check compromise, GOP senators said, in a sign party leaders will duck a public fight against the popular plan and the high-profile gun violence victims supporting it.
"So perhaps Senators Heller and Ayotte remain gettable."
Even with Heller and Ayotte you need virtually all the Dems to support it. So in a meaningful way the Red State Dems have the ability to kill this bill. There are different ways to to look at this in political terms. While the public clearly supports this, many GOP Reps come from very Red districts and may feel safer voting against it-to avoid a primary from the Right. Still, as Sargent has pointed out before, there are a number of House GOPers from suburban districts that want some level of sensible gun reform. Some Red State Dems worry about being targeted in 2014. Nationally on the other hand it could give the Democrats a potent political weapon.
"Failure to pass a gun bill could present a political opportunity for Obama and the Democrats. They can use the issue to run against GOP obstructionism in 2014. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and other gun-control groups have dumped tens of millions of dollars in to the fight, and Democrats to appeal to them to give heavily to their incumbents — and Democratic super PACs — next year."
"Republicans, for their part, will use any vote for more gun-control laws to target red state Democrats up this cycle. With control of the Senate at stake, and a map that is favorable for the GOP, the National Rifle Association and other gun-rights groups will play heavily in battleground states."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/gun-control-bill-in-peril-90117_Page3.html#ixzz2Qe1OSrRS
If we aren't able to get any gun control measures in the wake of 20 kids being mowed down in their classrooms it's a big failure indeed.
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