"Sen. Chuck Schumer said Sunday he’s hoping for a bipartisan deal by the end of this week on a sweeping immigration bill to secure the border and allow eventual citizenship to the estimated 11 million people living here illegally.
“All of us have said that there will be no agreement until the eight of us agree to a big, specific bill, but hopefully we can get that done by the end of the week,” said Schumer, D-N.Y., who’s leading efforts by eight senators to craft the legislation. “That’s what we’re on track to do.”
Lindsay Graham for his part insists that any deal will fail if it doesn't include border security. This is in principle a point of contention as the White House doesn't agree that this needs to be part of a deal, however, the devils in the details, and it seems quite possible that language will be included in a bipartisan agreement that pleases Republicans but doesn't basically take a path citizenship out of reach for many of the current illegal immigrants. Overall, Graham sounds pretty bullish about the chances of legislation passing in the Senate:
"Graham sounded optimistic overall, predicting the bill would pass the 100-member Senate with 70 votes in favor. Senators believe an overwhelming bipartisan vote is needed in the Democratic-led Senate to ensure a chance of success in the Republican-controlled House. Floor action could start in the Senate in May, Schumer said."
McCain, appeared with Schumer and is another member of the Gang of Eight. He seemed to accentuating the roadblocks that still exist for a deal:
"There will be a great deal of unhappiness about this proposal because everybody didn’t get what they wanted,” McCain said. “There are entrenched positions on both sides of this issue as far as business and labor.”
It's not clear why he makes it sound like there are intractable divisions between labor and business as the two groups actually got together recently and came to a rather shocking consensus on a deal. Graham initially waffled but later said he supports the agreement between labor and business:
"Graham also suggested that disagreement over a new low-skilled worker program could still be hanging up an overall immigration deal — even after an agreement a week ago between the AFL-CIO and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce."
The hard-won deal between labor and business would ultimately allow up to 200,000 workers a year into the U.S. to fill jobs in construction, hospitality, nursing homes and other areas where employers now say they have a difficult time hiring Americans or legally bringing in foreign workers. Even after the deal was struck, some industries, such as construction, continued to voice complaints about the terms.
Without offering details, Graham said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that negotiators were revisiting the low-skilled worker deal. But he issued a statement a short time later saying he was confident the agreement would hold.
Overall, it would seem to auger quite well for a deal. Is there a fly in the ointment? Josh Marshall is concerned there maybe. He notes that some Republicans have now been suggesting it's possible a deal doesn't have to happen or is not in their best interests. What you are hearing a lot of is the idea that this process must not be rushed, that everyone needs lots and lots and lots of time to offer amendments and have their say.
Earlier I noted that for the first time since the November election I’ve seen Republicans openly questioning whether they really need to get behind immigration reform. Or, to put it more concretely, whether the politics dictates that they need it to pass. But there’s something else going on too: Senate Democrats need to start seriously considering whether they’re getting played by the Gang of 8 charade.
This morning Sen. Schumer (D-NY) said we should expect to see a bill unveiled this week. But Senator Graham says more like “in the next couple of weeks.” And the crowd around Rubio is chattering that it may well take longer, even as Rubio said a few days ago that the bill itself will only be the ‘starting point’ of the debate.
You start to see what at least some folks are trying to do here. Drag this out, drag this out, drag this out. So as the thing gets bogged down you get the sand kicked in the eyes of the public about who’s on which side and who’s trying to prevent anything from happening. It starts looking a lot like other pieces of legislation that have twirled into the black hole of Senate ‘gangs’ and opaque negotiations so all the public sees is a Senate unable to act.
What dragging this out does besides muddying the waters and frustrating the public is give time for a group of anti immigrant supporters to kill the bill-a coup. Does Marshall see this as likely? Not exactly; at the end of the day he agrees that the GOP probably can't kill this. Still, the Dems should maybe consider speeding the process up:
"There’s limited utility trying to negotiate a bipartisan compromise with folks who are trying to scuttle a bill while the legislation itself enjoys broad public. I don’t think this is going to end up happening. The political pressure for action is simply too great. And there are a number of Senate Republicans who genuinely do want legislation. But most want to slow it down as much as possible to see if some opportunity arises to kill it."
"Much more of this and it would be silly for Senate Dems and the White House not to just introduce a bill and let the public see who’s for it and against it."
Of course, Rubio and company could use such a Dem move as an excuse: Aha! They're rushing this. And we said this is the biggest enemy of true reform! Now we're not going to do any deal, cause no fair!
Still, I'm inclined to agree with Marshall, and don't see the GOP threats as very credible. Marshall argued in his other piece about Republicans now questioning the politics of the deal that the Democrats will be in good shape with Latinos whether there's a deal or not. While the Republicans, on the other hand, will still trail largely among Latinos there's big difference between losing the vote 40-60 and 20-80.
I suspect the GOP leadership knows this. If the GOP insists on feet dragging the Dems should consider putting out their own bill or at least letting the GOP know they will if need be.
P.S. While many Republicans may be trying to drag their feet in giving opponents time to kill the bill, it's also true that to maintain credibility among the base they have to do at least a certain amount of hand wringing. The key then is trying to fetter out the difference between theatrics not meant to be serious and a real attempt at a last hour coup.
It's hard to believe that Rubio is in this latter camp. As a 2016 hopeful, his credibility in particular is shot with no deal, even more so if it's suspected that he had a part in killing the deal.
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