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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

If You Want Gun Control Call Your Senator

     Particularly if he or she is one of the 5 Democrats who voted against or the Purple State Repubs like Ayotte, Jeff Flake,Lisa Murkoski and Dean Heller. There are some signs that those who voted against Manchin-Toomey are being hurt in the polls. A Gallup poll shows that Americans wanted that bill to pass by a 65%-29% margin.

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-nra-posts-ads-praising-kelly.html

     Still, there's no room for complacency. Greg Sargent is right that it's still a longshot-at least during this term.

     "All of this said, there are no indications that these Senators are prepared to change their votes, and there is not another vote on Manchin-Toomey scheduled for anytime soon. Such a vote won’t happen until there are genuine signs that one or two or three Senators are prepared to flip. While I’m told that there are still multiple conversations underway, there’s no sign that this is imminent."

    "It’s good that gun control advocates are beginning to bring pressure to bear that shows that a political price will perhaps be paid for this vote. That’s crucial, and it cuts a bit against the conventional wisdom which held that the effort would die completely after Manchin-Toomey’s defeat. That said, it’s still unclear whether any of it will end up mattering."
    My sense is that it will definitely end up mattering but the question is when? It may not break through during this term of Congress. The hope is we can get another vote on Manchin-Toomey at some point. The question is how quickly will it matter? The answer it's up to us-particularly if you're Senator is one of those who voted against it last time but is movable. 
    On the one hand, what we have here is the classic moment of the tail wagging the dog. The majority of Americans want commonsense gun control laws. A small minority are scorched earth opposition to any measures; my sense is they labor under the slippery slope theory. 
    Surely the minority can't continue to thwart the majority's will forever? This question applies not just to gun control but in general. After all, it's via two things that the GOP which represents a minority of citizens is able to frustrate the expressed desire of a majority of citizens:
   1. The Gerrymander
   2. The Filibuster
    Surely this can't go on forever? No it won't. However, the question is when. There's a case to be made that the gun lobby for example can hold out for a long time. What the NRA hangs its hat on is the idea that gun control opponents have the intensity and passion on their side. This view is not insubstantial. Heidi Heitkamp has revealed that the reason she voted against background checks is that she got more callers telling her to than urging her to vote for it:
    "Heidi Heitkamp’s office was flooded with calls from North Dakotans in the run-up to last week’s high-profile vote to expand background checks on gun purchasers."
    "The overwhelming consensus: Vote no."

     "In an interview in her office this week, the freshman Democrat defended the biggest vote of her young Senate career, when she joined with three other Democrats and most Senate Republicans to oppose expanding background checks during commercial gun sales."

  “I think I always had a reputation as somebody who will listen, somebody who is pretty independent-minded but also believes that at the end of the day, you got to listen to your constituents,” Heitkamp said. “In this office, the calls literally were before the last day at least 7 to 1 against that bill. This was after a series of very extensive ad campaigns done in my state saying call me and tell me to support it.”

    "Heitkamp’s opposition came after intense lobbying by President Barack Obama’s chief of staff, former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and her husband, Mark Kelly — and families of the victims from the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School last year. The vote turned Heitkamp from an unexpected victor of a 2012 Senate race to a liberal punching bag, fielding a sharp jab from Obama’s former chief of staff, Bill Daley, who demanded a refund of his campaign donation."

     http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=011FF2E5-EBB6-45E1-BF96-D466750B215A

     This would seem to be validation of the intensity gap theory. Until gun control advocates can at least go toe to toe on calls to Senators it won't get done. 

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