On Background Checks 90% of Public Support May Not Be Enough

     The consensus view at this point seems to be that the Manchin-Toomey bill for expanded background checks doesn't have the votes and is headed for defeat today. Manchin himself is quoted by Christine O'Donnell as having conceded the point:

     "West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin told a reporter Wednesday that a proposal to expand background checks he crafted with Pennsylvania GOP Sen. Pat Toomey doesn’t yet have enough support to pass."

    “We will not get the votes today,” Manchin told NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, according to a message she posted on Twitter.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/joe-manchin-pat-toomey-gun-control-background-checks-bill-90199.html#ixzz2QjFQ5Zmc

     He did try to sound more optimistic a little later on Joe Scarborough on MSNBC this morning. Here he took the glass is half full view:

     “We hope so,” Manchin said when asked if they had the votes, adding: “We have over 90 percent of the Senate Democrats that will vote affirmative. If we just had 20 percent of our Republican colleagues — that’s not a heavy ask, it’s not a heavy lift, only 20 percent, that’s nine members, nine members — this thing would be home.”

     And in response to the NBC report, a Manchin spokesman said the proposal was still alive.

    “Senator Manchin remains optimistic and hopeful that if Senators and the American people read the bill, they will support his commonsense approach to require criminal and mental background checks for advertised sales, including purchases at gun shows and online sales, without infringing on Americans’ Second Amendment rights,” Jonathan Kott said in a statement shortly after Manchin’s TV appearance. “So far Senator Manchin has managed to garner support from an A-rated NRA member and three Republican Senators as well as 90 percent of his own party. With a record like that, I see no reason to bet against Senator Manchin today. He will continue to explain his bill to his colleagues and anyone with concerns until the minute they vote.”

     Of course, if the Senate wasn't a 60 vote super majority body it would be enough. As it is, 90% of the Democratic vote isn't nearly enough. There are 3 GOPers who have officially announced they will support it-McCain seems a likely 4th. At this point to pass, it needs all Democrats to vote for it and then New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte puts them over the top. 

     There had been hope for GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski, however, she and another hopeful-Nevada Senator Dean Heller-came out against it last night-even if the bill is further watered down to allow exceptions for those in rural areas.  So it seems that the people's will may again be thwarted. If so it will be a continued testament of the strength of the NRA or at least the fear it instills in Red States including Red State Democrats. 

     To be sure, the vote hasn't been defeated yet. In the end this may change. Background checks were supposed to be the easy part of gun control while the odds were considered much longer on say an assault weapons ban. If even such a modest, commonsense piece of legislation like this fails, it doesn't auger well. On the other hand it might really fire up gun control advocates and we may yet see something real get done. 

    In one positive development, Harry Reid plans to vote for the assault weapons ban today-as someone who has a very high rating from the NRA this might signal that the lobby is not as strong as it's held to be-of course Reid doesn't have to run again for another 4 years-if he ever plans to again. 

    "I will vote for assault weapons ban because maintaining law and order and saving lives is more important than preventing imagined tyranny."

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/harry-reid-to-vote-for-assault-weapons-ban

    Last month he had suggested he might not put up the ban for a vote as it lacked the vote. Overall, the fight for sane, safer gun control laws can't be defeated today though it may be slowed down.