There have been some major debates recently about Iceland-with liberals and conservatives, Keynesians and Market Monetarists wanting to take credit for the country's very impressive recovery form the 2009 recession and the country that had the worst banking crisis in the Western world-which includes Japan.
While I think it's a clear victory for Keynesians as Iceland allowed the public debt ratio to rise during the recession and it didn't start dropping until 2012, 3 years after the recession was over, it's also a real rebuke to the ECB as Iceland has done very nicely, thank you, without the Euro.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/06/for-ecb-iceland-is-sore-point.html
Similarly, there has been a big debate over what David Cameron's victory says. Looking at the big picture it says a lot-not much of it good. Hence the title of this piece-remember the song 'The futures so bright I gotta wear shades?'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY
Well, that's not Britain today. Yes, there has been talk about a 'jobs miracle' in the UK a la Sumner. However, this comes part and parcel with very weak productivity growth. Matt Yglesias has pointed out that ideally you'd want people to move to London but they can't because of the prohibitive price of housing-the highest in the world.
As for Cameron's victory, it wasn't that everyone loves Cameron and his policies. Actually the opposite is the case with the imploding of the Conservatives' coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats. The LDs got creamed precisely by selling out everything they ever claimed to believe in and jointed Team Austerity with Cameron.
However, this wasn't only a failure of epic proportions for the LDs but also for Labour which picked up very little of those fleeing the LDs. What should have been natural Labour voters instead all fled to the SNP.
So the biggest story today in Britain is actually that though Scottish independence lost at the ballot box last time, it may be inevitable down the road which is clearly underscored by SNP's big numbers. If the Scotts do leave Britain, what will happen to the Brits? Will it truly be Britain anymore?
Is the future of Britain the final implosion of it back onto itself? Is the day when the country is little more than a tiny little island with miserable weather called England for off? At that point would there even be a monarchy for the tabloids to follow?
I ask all this as a British-and American-citizen. I was born in England but grew up in the US since I was 3.
It's amazing how far the British Empire has fallen going back to the early 1900s. Indignity after indignity has come to it since and it may be only ready to get worse
P.S. It's true that you can see America as taking the baton from Britain but the vast differences between the 2 nations make it unlikable such ignominy is in our future anytime soon. To start with the continental US covers such a vast amount of land compared to the tiny island of England which only maintains its relevance it seems to me thanks to it still having 3 commonwealths-Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales under its Crown.
What happens if Scotland leaves?
UPDATE: Many have set down to answer just this question:
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-25035427
Just perusing it, the answer seems to be that the UK minus Scotland would become a Conservative wasteland. There are other possible effects like Scotland joining the EU-though they might like to talk with Iceland and Greece first as we noted above-but to me this seems very notable: you could have one party Conservative party rule.
So in that sense maybe the future is so bright you have to wear shades: if you're a Conservative. Although some argue you shouldn't overstate this.
Independence in Wales only has 10% support but if Scotland leaves some argue this could change opinion in Wales.
While I think it's a clear victory for Keynesians as Iceland allowed the public debt ratio to rise during the recession and it didn't start dropping until 2012, 3 years after the recession was over, it's also a real rebuke to the ECB as Iceland has done very nicely, thank you, without the Euro.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2015/06/for-ecb-iceland-is-sore-point.html
Similarly, there has been a big debate over what David Cameron's victory says. Looking at the big picture it says a lot-not much of it good. Hence the title of this piece-remember the song 'The futures so bright I gotta wear shades?'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY
Well, that's not Britain today. Yes, there has been talk about a 'jobs miracle' in the UK a la Sumner. However, this comes part and parcel with very weak productivity growth. Matt Yglesias has pointed out that ideally you'd want people to move to London but they can't because of the prohibitive price of housing-the highest in the world.
As for Cameron's victory, it wasn't that everyone loves Cameron and his policies. Actually the opposite is the case with the imploding of the Conservatives' coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats. The LDs got creamed precisely by selling out everything they ever claimed to believe in and jointed Team Austerity with Cameron.
However, this wasn't only a failure of epic proportions for the LDs but also for Labour which picked up very little of those fleeing the LDs. What should have been natural Labour voters instead all fled to the SNP.
So the biggest story today in Britain is actually that though Scottish independence lost at the ballot box last time, it may be inevitable down the road which is clearly underscored by SNP's big numbers. If the Scotts do leave Britain, what will happen to the Brits? Will it truly be Britain anymore?
Is the future of Britain the final implosion of it back onto itself? Is the day when the country is little more than a tiny little island with miserable weather called England for off? At that point would there even be a monarchy for the tabloids to follow?
I ask all this as a British-and American-citizen. I was born in England but grew up in the US since I was 3.
It's amazing how far the British Empire has fallen going back to the early 1900s. Indignity after indignity has come to it since and it may be only ready to get worse
P.S. It's true that you can see America as taking the baton from Britain but the vast differences between the 2 nations make it unlikable such ignominy is in our future anytime soon. To start with the continental US covers such a vast amount of land compared to the tiny island of England which only maintains its relevance it seems to me thanks to it still having 3 commonwealths-Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales under its Crown.
What happens if Scotland leaves?
UPDATE: Many have set down to answer just this question:
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-25035427
Just perusing it, the answer seems to be that the UK minus Scotland would become a Conservative wasteland. There are other possible effects like Scotland joining the EU-though they might like to talk with Iceland and Greece first as we noted above-but to me this seems very notable: you could have one party Conservative party rule.
So in that sense maybe the future is so bright you have to wear shades: if you're a Conservative. Although some argue you shouldn't overstate this.
Independence in Wales only has 10% support but if Scotland leaves some argue this could change opinion in Wales.
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