Reid and McConnell Ironing out GOP 'Terms of Surrender

     That's how Mark Halperin put it today on MSNBC.

      "Veteran political journalist Mark Halperin said Monday that Democrats know they are winning the battle over the government shutdown and all that’s left is negotiating the Republicans’ “surrender."

     “It’s just a question of the terms of surrender right now,” Halperin said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “Part of what’s driving the dynamic is Democrats know they are winning and Harry Reid and the White House have the attitude of, ‘Why should we give anything because they’re coming our way,’ and they’re waiting.”

     Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/mark-halperin-government-shutdown-republicans-98251.html#ixzz2hkMndEyH

     He also doesn't think the Democrats are trying to be conciliatory in the writing of the 'treaty.' While the GOP has wanted to save face the Dems are not interested in helping them do it, the opposite in fact:

    Halperin also said Democrats are trying to send a message to Republicans, who will cave.

   “We’ve talked about Democrats giving Republicans an opportunity to save face: I think the White House and Harry Reid would like to humiliate the Republicans and like to send a message that if you’re led around by Ted Cruz and Sarah Palin going forward, the same thing will happen to you again. So they’re going for the best, toughest deal they can get,” Halperin said

    There's a feeling among Obama and the Dems that the GOP gets nothing out of this not even something trivial. 

    ""Still no resolution on the debt ceiling, and I think people are still too optimistic here. Republicans still aren’t willing to walk away from this without some kind of trophy, so they can claim victory; the whole point of Obama’s position is that you don’t get anything, not even something trivial, as a reward for threatening disaster."

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/10/dems-stand-tall-in-rejecting-paying-any.html

    In the link above I argued that while Krugman was right, I nevertheless saw him as too pessimistic. Indeed, what you have to say is that we've seen this movie before. Just as in the fiscal cliff and even the original 2011 debt ceiling deal, ultimately, it falls to McConnell and the Senate GOP to agree to a deal. Then it goes to the House where ultimately Boehner lets it pass with mostly Democratic votes. 

    The movie ends the same as the poll numbers are truly horrendous for the GOP. 

     http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/shutdown-poll-gop-disapproval-grows-98284.html?hp=l2

     Here is the thumbnail of the agreement between Reid and McConnell. There is a good deal of optimism it passes. 

    "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) gradually pieced together the makings of an agreement Monday to avert default ahead of a Thursday debt limit deadline. The emerging deal, which is not yet finalized, would also restore funding for the federal government, which has been shuttered since Oct 1."

     "The big question is whether a bipartisan agreement from the Senate will give Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) the political cover he needs to pass the bill over the objections of conservatives in the House, who will put enormous pressure on Boehner to reject or amend it."

     "The Senate framework extends the debt ceiling until early February, funds the government through early January and establishes budget conference negotiations by mid-December, ahead of the next increase in the borrowing limit, according to top Senate aides familiar with the talks."

     http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/breakthrough-senate-reaches-deal-to-avert-default-but-will-house-follow

     As to whether Boehner puts it up for a vote, Jonathan Bernstein argues it's not up to Boehner but whether enough Republicans secretly want him to put it up. 

     "It’s worth pounding home this point one more time: don’t personalize this. It’s not really about John Boehner."

      "Instead, it’s about two groups. One is the twenty-five or so most moderate Republicans, the ones who know they’ll have to vote for the final eventual package. If they were willing to demand a vote, then they would get one (the procedural details are grim, but basically they’ve had several opportunities to force a vote on re-opening government, and they wouldn’t take them)."

      "The other is the much larger group of mainstream House conservatives, who make up the overwhelming majority of the 232-member House Republican conference. Most of them won’t vote for the final package, but if they give John Boehner the go-ahead, he’ll be able to put it on the floor and it will pass."

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/10/14/will-house-republicans-allow-a-retreat/

      It certainly sounds pretty plausible. So assuming it's true, do they let him put it up? I say yes, because the numbers are truly becoming abysmal.