After all, he is the man. It's up to him. Tomorrow this could be over. Of course it would be over today as well. Just put up a clean CR and it will pass. Easily. Some Republicans-who have spoken to the conservative columnist Brian York-believe that he not only could get that passed today but with a majority of Republican votes.
"Here's a key part of York's piece ...
"But I just don't believe it."
"Oh, I believe that the bulk of the Republican conference thinks this shutdown is stupid strategy."
"But "eager" to vote for a clean CR? Look, if the bulk of the conference wanted a clean CR and Boehner was resisting it because of fears about his job, then he's the stupidest man in the world...because no one keeps that chair for long if 175 of 233 disagree with a major decision like this. Yes, technically a handful of Republican defectors can prevent Boehner's re-election on opening day of the next Congress...but in reality there's not much they can do if the rest of the conference is happy with the Speaker. Just empty, noisy, protest. But if 175 think that Boehner is betraying them by not letting them vote on something they're "eager" to do, then they'll defeat him in the conference after the 2014 election -- or, more realistically, ask him to resign immediately and replace him with someone who will do what they want."
"Here's a key part of York's piece ...
"I've been trying to figure this out," says one House Republican of the current standoff over funding the government. "It seems to me that Boehner could do whatever he wants with Democrats on the floor and still get about 180 or 190 of us. So why doesn't he do that?"The lawmaker was referring to the fact that a large majority of the House's 232 Republicans, plus a large majority of its 200 Democrats, would likely support a "clean" continuing resolution to fund the government but not defund, delay, or limit Obamacare. If House Speaker John Boehner were to bring such a bill to the floor, it would probably pass with a majority of Republican as well as Democratic votes. But Boehner doesn't do it.
"York and his interlocutor go on to suggest that there are likely only between 30 and 50 House members who are really committed to the current course - well under a quarter of the House GOP caucus. A high estimate is 80. By process of elimination, they think Boehner just thinks that if he crosses those folks they'll trigger a Speaker election and unseat him."
"Meanwhile, Rep. Charlie Dent (R-PA) is pleading with Boehner to start governing with a working majority of Democrats and Republicans.
Did you just feel the earth shake? Who ever thought we'd see the day when a House Republican actually wants some functional bipartisanship-as opposed to the Senate where such sentiments certainly do exist among some Repubs. This piece is really damning for Boehner because it seems to suggest that he knows this is absurd-and it's pretty likely that he does-but that the only reason he won't put a stop to it is to protect his own job. So you're ready to set a light to our economy and society just so you won't be challenged for Speaker?!
"could it really be that the number of representatives driving this train is, on the high side, between 50 and 80 people? If that's true, Boehner's position is dramatically more craven than many of us have imagined. And the dysfunction is greater than at least I had imagined."
Yet, Jonathan Bernstein had a good piece that I looked at earlier about this. He suggests that it's not quite this simple. Yes, most Republicans think this is foolish and dangerous and would like it to go away but most are rather 'craven' themselves. Bernstein suggests it's not just Boehner's cravenness but the whole party's which is driving this train wreck.
"This kind of reporting pins the blame for the shutdown squarely on Speaker Boehner -- who, as Brian Beutler puts it, "is a powerful person with agency and a conscience." If in fact 175 House Republicans were actually eager to end this thing without a shutdown, and Boehner refused to bring it to the floor because he feared that the 30-60 would cost him his job, then the responsibility lies mainly with him (see also Greg Sargent's similar numbers).
"But I just don't believe it."
"Oh, I believe that the bulk of the Republican conference thinks this shutdown is stupid strategy."
"But "eager" to vote for a clean CR? Look, if the bulk of the conference wanted a clean CR and Boehner was resisting it because of fears about his job, then he's the stupidest man in the world...because no one keeps that chair for long if 175 of 233 disagree with a major decision like this. Yes, technically a handful of Republican defectors can prevent Boehner's re-election on opening day of the next Congress...but in reality there's not much they can do if the rest of the conference is happy with the Speaker. Just empty, noisy, protest. But if 175 think that Boehner is betraying them by not letting them vote on something they're "eager" to do, then they'll defeat him in the conference after the 2014 election -- or, more realistically, ask him to resign immediately and replace him with someone who will do what they want."
Which leads us to all the 'lemmings in suicide vests.' Josh Marshall also notes this:
"I will, as they say, believe it when I see it. A couple days ago, Rep. King (R-NY) was supposedly going to lead a 'moderate' revolt of 25 members. But in the end, only a handful voted against the relevant House 'rule' and half of those were folks like Bachmann and Steve King from the Crazy Caucus who think the Boehner strategy doesn't go far enough."
"On the day before the shutdown, Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), who's actually no moderate, was at first castigating his colleagues as "lemmings" for going along with the Boehner/Defundo strategy but by the end of the day was going lemming himself and voting with them."
"I saw this movie before during the Impeachment pseudo-crisis. The fabled GOP moderates never appear."
What it comes down to is this. It is indeed as dysfunctional as it seems but the dysfunction is not all concentrated in one man, John Boehner, but an entire party.
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