Thanks to GS 2.0 we lost $24 billion dollars in economic activity and according to forecasters, GDP for the year may have dropped as much as 1%. Now a number of economic reports are being delayed, which certainly isn't good for those in the market who need to plan.
"The Labor Department said on Thursday that it would release its report on September employment on Tuesday, as it provided a fresh schedule for some economic data that had been postponed due to a partial government shutdown."
"BOEHNER’S JOB IS SAFE: The Associated Press has a fascinating series of interviews with conservative House Republicans who disagreed with the final outcome to the crisis but nonetheless say John Boehner is safe as Speaker. GOP Rep. John Fleming:
"The Labor Department said on Thursday that it would release its report on September employment on Tuesday, as it provided a fresh schedule for some economic data that had been postponed due to a partial government shutdown."
"It also said it would release the consumer price index for September on Oct. 30 and the producer price index for September on Oct. 29."
"In addition, the department said it was delaying the release of the employment report covering October until Nov. 8. It was previously scheduled for release on Nov. 1."
"In its last monthly employment report, the Labor Department said 169,000 jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls in August and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent."
"The 16-day government shutdown delayed the release of about a dozen economic reports. "
It also will really hobble the ability to get reliable monthly CPI data.
"Concerns are already being raised that the shutdown may compromise the quality of consumer inflation data and the nation's unemployment rate for October."
"The inflation report is based on prices collected through the month and relies on visits to shops and supermarkets. But the BLS will not have prices for at least the first half of the month given the shutdown."
"Even if field visits resumed on Thursday, they would still not have enough sample to compile a comprehensive report."
"Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland warned that the shutdown could impact on the accuracy of the monthly consumer price index estimates until next May."
"Since the CPI price collection relies upon field staff visiting shops, some of the October data will never be collected," said Randal Verbrugge, a senior research economist at the Cleveland Fed. "As a result, the November CPI release, which is based upon October data, will have a much bigger standard error due to the smaller sample."
"Given that not all prices are collected every month, the error will not be quickly reversed."
"In fact, these repercussions do not end until May of 2014," said Verbrugge. "However, year-over-year inflation estimates will continue to be quite reliable."
"Other economists said the October inflation report could be scrapped altogether."
However, there's a silver lining: Boehner gets to keep his job. So I guess it was all worth it.
"BOEHNER’S JOB IS SAFE: The Associated Press has a fascinating series of interviews with conservative House Republicans who disagreed with the final outcome to the crisis but nonetheless say John Boehner is safe as Speaker. GOP Rep. John Fleming:
“I think his stock has risen tremendously, and certainly he has great security as our leader and our speaker.”
"So Boehner’s strategy of taking us right up to the brink, to prove he fought the good fight until the bitter end, in order to minimize the damage among conservatives when the eventual surrender came may have worked. But at what cost?"
The sad thing is this is the most coherent motivation I've heard for GS 2.0 which is very sad. It's clear where the battle lines will be drawn going forward. It's between the GOP establishment-beginning with Boehner-who didn't want this to begin with and the Ted Cruz faction who did. It's amazing how much Cruz is having this both ways.
"ED CRUZ KEEPS HIS FRAUD ALIVE: The Texas Senator’s reaction to the GOP surrender:
“Unfortunately, the Washington establishment is failing to listen to the American people.”
"Yep. As noted here yesterday, Ted Cruz’s strategy can’t possibly fail; it can only be failed by the corrupt Republican establishment. So he’ll do this again. As Pete King says, it’s on sane Republicans not to let this happen again."
He didn't fight the final Senate deal anyway, Yet he gets to be the authentic Tea Party vote shocked by the comrpomise of the corrupt establishment. As I've said in previous posts, I don't think there will be a GS 3.0. One reason is that Boehner can't credibly do it again. He certainly can't threaten a default on our debt again.
"We're not going to pass a clean debt limit increase," House Speaker John Boehner warned the country on Oct. 6. "I told the president, there's no way we're going to pass one. The votes are not in the House to pass a clean debt limit. And the president is risking default by not having a conversation with us."
"Ten days later, the Ohio Republican brought up a clean debt limit increase, attached to a clean government funding resolution, and the bill passed the House with flying colors, 285-144. A majority of Senate Republicans voted for it. The GOP won no policy concessions. It was a complete, unvarnished surrender after they demanded an unraveling of Obamacare and a swath of other conservative goodies to avert default."
"It was the second time in nine months that Republicans used the threat of a catastrophic debt default to force conservative fiscal reforms. And it was the second time in nine months that they backed down and freed the hostage after President Barack Obama and Democratic leaders stonewalled and refused to pay ransom."
The Dems really are the unsung heroes here too. It's easy to lose sight of it as the big story as how utterly stupid the GOP strategy was here.
"We stood up to Republicans and proved that we won't give in to their hostage-taking politics," said a senior Democratic Senate aide. "Republicans should now understand that we won't be threatened or bullied into giving them what they want."
As Sargent notes, the next deb ceiling hike doesn't really come until the Summer-with the extraordinary powers given to Jack Lew, the Treasury Secretary. Is the GOP establishment really going to want another round of debt ceiling chicken a few months before the 2014 elections? If so they simply have a death wish, which wouldn't be such a bad thing either.
At the least we know the GOP is not willing to actually default, that they realize that compromising the words the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is a bridge too far.
"Congress' after-dusk votes Wednesday to raise the debt ceiling and re-open the shuttered government were a watershed moment in the era of governance by hostage-taking. Republicans proved they were willing to spur a shutdown, which has been costly but not disastrous. But the debt ceiling is a different beast. Republicans folded one day before the deadline, proving that default is a bridge too far for them. That suggests it has all but lost its utility as a weapon for a party out of power to demand concessions from the president."
"The next debt limit hike will be required after Treasury exhausts the extraordinary measures available to borrow after the Feb. 7 deadline. And even the staunchest conservatives in the House see the writing on the wall after the GOP freed the hostage this time."
"There's nothing in this for conservatives. Not even a bright or shiny object," a despondent Rep. Tom Massie (R-KY) told TPM. "I don't know how you negotiate up from this capitulation. I think the long faces are a result of the realization, if not the vocalization yet, that this sets the precedent for this Congress."
At the least we know the GOP is not willing to actually default, that they realize that compromising the words the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is a bridge too far.
"Congress' after-dusk votes Wednesday to raise the debt ceiling and re-open the shuttered government were a watershed moment in the era of governance by hostage-taking. Republicans proved they were willing to spur a shutdown, which has been costly but not disastrous. But the debt ceiling is a different beast. Republicans folded one day before the deadline, proving that default is a bridge too far for them. That suggests it has all but lost its utility as a weapon for a party out of power to demand concessions from the president."
"The next debt limit hike will be required after Treasury exhausts the extraordinary measures available to borrow after the Feb. 7 deadline. And even the staunchest conservatives in the House see the writing on the wall after the GOP freed the hostage this time."
"There's nothing in this for conservatives. Not even a bright or shiny object," a despondent Rep. Tom Massie (R-KY) told TPM. "I don't know how you negotiate up from this capitulation. I think the long faces are a result of the realization, if not the vocalization yet, that this sets the precedent for this Congress."
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