I wrote a piece earlier that discussed what the outline of a deal will look like.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/10/a-skeleton-of-deal-to-end-govt-shutdown.html?showComment=1381626984315#c7079691505880719973
However, a lot has changed since then. I had thought that the Dems might coalesce around Susan Collins offer to get the debt ceiling raised through the end of the year-I think I wrongly had her offer going out till June-and 6 month funding bill of the government.
It had seemed to me that as at least she provided some discretion on limiting the pain of the sequester, that there may have been something at least that could be the foundation of a deal, despite certain rather unattractive parts like delaying a tax on medical devices from Obamacare and demanding verification of income from those who get Obamacare.
While you can make the case that delaying the tax is just a giveaway to very wealthy medical device companies who really don't need yet another subsidy. However, I reasoned that there are Democrats that have questions about the tax as well-whether or not it in effect will just get passed on to patients, etc.
In any case, the Senate Dems are playing a very strong hand. They have decided they aren't going to give anything to the GOP. This is, of course, exactly right: why should they get anything for simply not blowing up the economy? I had earlier observed how strong a hand they have played throughout this-and encouraging the President to do the same; not to say Obama doesn't get it himself.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/10/govt-shutdown-farce-nearing-end-thank.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29
However, I didn't realize just how strong they are playing till they're flat out rejection of Collins. Of course, they're right. There cannot be any gain or benefit for not shutting down the government and not forcing a debt default. I mean what's next, do I get a tax credit for not molesting children? Krugman observes:
"Still no resolution on the debt ceiling, and I think people are still too optimistic here. Republicans still aren’t willing to walk away from this without some kind of trophy, so they can claim victory; the whole point of Obama’s position is that you don’t get anything, not even something trivial, as a reward for threatening disaster."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/12/business-and-the-gop/?_r=0
As Pat Murray says:
"The decision by Reid and his leadership team to stand firm -- 12 days into a government shutdown and within five days of breaching the debt limit -- signal that Democrats believe they have the upper-hand in the impasse. Polls find that the GOP is bearing the blunt of the blame for the shutdown. Reid said Saturday that a proposal by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) was "not going to go any place at this stage."
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/10/a-skeleton-of-deal-to-end-govt-shutdown.html?showComment=1381626984315#c7079691505880719973
However, a lot has changed since then. I had thought that the Dems might coalesce around Susan Collins offer to get the debt ceiling raised through the end of the year-I think I wrongly had her offer going out till June-and 6 month funding bill of the government.
It had seemed to me that as at least she provided some discretion on limiting the pain of the sequester, that there may have been something at least that could be the foundation of a deal, despite certain rather unattractive parts like delaying a tax on medical devices from Obamacare and demanding verification of income from those who get Obamacare.
While you can make the case that delaying the tax is just a giveaway to very wealthy medical device companies who really don't need yet another subsidy. However, I reasoned that there are Democrats that have questions about the tax as well-whether or not it in effect will just get passed on to patients, etc.
In any case, the Senate Dems are playing a very strong hand. They have decided they aren't going to give anything to the GOP. This is, of course, exactly right: why should they get anything for simply not blowing up the economy? I had earlier observed how strong a hand they have played throughout this-and encouraging the President to do the same; not to say Obama doesn't get it himself.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/10/govt-shutdown-farce-nearing-end-thank.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29
However, I didn't realize just how strong they are playing till they're flat out rejection of Collins. Of course, they're right. There cannot be any gain or benefit for not shutting down the government and not forcing a debt default. I mean what's next, do I get a tax credit for not molesting children? Krugman observes:
"Still no resolution on the debt ceiling, and I think people are still too optimistic here. Republicans still aren’t willing to walk away from this without some kind of trophy, so they can claim victory; the whole point of Obama’s position is that you don’t get anything, not even something trivial, as a reward for threatening disaster."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/12/business-and-the-gop/?_r=0
As Pat Murray says:
"The decision by Reid and his leadership team to stand firm -- 12 days into a government shutdown and within five days of breaching the debt limit -- signal that Democrats believe they have the upper-hand in the impasse. Polls find that the GOP is bearing the blunt of the blame for the shutdown. Reid said Saturday that a proposal by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) was "not going to go any place at this stage."
No. 4 Democratic Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) said Republicans "have to stop asking for hostages in order for our country to be OK."
Throughout this latest debt ceiling hostage crisis thing, the Republicans have adopted this just appalling meme that the Democrats are saying 'My way or the highway' by not offering concessions in exchange for raising the debt ceiling and funding the government. Boehner-among other GOPers-has been saying that 'neither side can get everything it wants'-which suggests that funding the government and raising the debt ceiling are things the Democrats want but the Republicans don't and the only way to get them to do these things is by offering them something they care about.
Yet any talk of 'negotiating' in such a situation is utter perversity. I mean if a gunman says give me what I want or I'll start shooting people, this is no legitimate 'negotiation' in the normal sense. A hostage 'negotiation' is a totally different animal and the GOP is being obtuse by trying to suggest otherwise.
Ultimately the one reason I'm maybe a little less pessimistic than Krugman-who rightly wonders what the markets will do on Monday if this isn't resolved by then-is surely the Republicans see the polls and surely Boehner won't go down this road. True, I didn't think he'd let us go down the road of a govt. shutdown again either but this really will be shocking as wrongheaded as Boehner so often is, I can't believe he really won't allow a Senate bill that raises the debt ceiling to be voted on
In saying this I am fully aware that it's a desperate situation indeed when your optimistic case rests on the reasonableness of John Boehner. Nevertheless, while the prediction business is a perilous one, I will still predict that ultimately the Senate will pass something and that the 11th hour Boehner will let it be voted for in the House. Let's hope this goes better than some of my recent predictions-like no shutdown and the Giants beating Philly last Sunday.
So despite being wrong about avoiding the government shutdown, I'm going out on the limb again we avoid the debt default. If I'm wrong I'll be 0 for 3 but of course at that point we'll have much bigger problems than getting some predictions wrong.
UPDATE: I should point out that the real action at this point, after not only did the Dems reject Collins' proposal, but the White House also rejected the House GOP plan-which was pretty awful only raising the debt ceiling till Thanksgiving and making reopening the government contingent on entitlement cuts and the Senate Republicans filibustered a Dem bill that would have raised the debt ceiling through the end of 2014, is between Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell.
""The real conversation that matters now is the one that's taking place between McConnell and Reid," said Sen. Bob Corker(R., Tenn.).
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303382004579131272746516790
""The real conversation that matters now is the one that's taking place between McConnell and Reid," said Sen. Bob Corker(R., Tenn.).
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303382004579131272746516790
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