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Monday, September 23, 2013

Boehner Has it in His Power to Really Blow 2014

     It's clear that the Dems are going to send his CR back to him without Obamacare defunded. What will Boehner do then? My guess is he'll eventually let it come up for a vote. However, if he doesn't he will please the Tea Party. He just won't please anyone else. Not even rank and file Republicans who don't identify as part of the Tea Party. Yes, the majority of Americans don't like Obamacare right now. 

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/09/yes-gop-tactics-are-awful-but-do-they.html

   Nevertheless, Karl Rove and the WSJ among other realistic Republican voices are admitting that this in no way means that the GOP can use this as a bargaining chip using a government shutdown as a threat.  Even the WSJ has admitted that going here is one way to throw a good 2014 election into jeopardy. Nobody supports such ransom notes, and most don't even want Obamacare defunded-yes that does point to a certain schizophrenia in voters; if you've been following things at all this is nothing new. 

    Americans basically want it all both ways. Still almost no one wants a government shutdown to defund Obamacare or any other reason. 

   "There’s a ton of chatter about today’s CNBC poll, which finds overwhelming opposition to ongoing conservative efforts to sabotage Obamacare. The poll finds that even without a shutdown Americans oppose defunding by 44 percent to 38 percent.  Steve Liesman has the rest of the gory details from the internals, and they’re striking:

Opposition to defunding increases sharply when the issue of shutting down the government and defaulting is included. In that case, Americans oppose defunding 59 percent to 19 percent, with 18 percent of respondents unsure. [...]
A 51 percent majority of Republicans generally support defunding with 36 percent opposed and 13 percent unsure. However, when including the issue of a government shutdown and default, the picture changes: 48 percent of Republicans oppose defunding Obamacare, while 36 percent support it.
However, a 54 percent majority of Republicans who also identify themselves as Tea Party supporters want the new health care law defunded even if it means a government shutdown – the only demographic measured in the poll with such a majority. Republicans who do not identify themselves as Tea Party supporters… oppose defunding Obamacare 44 percent to 36 percent with 20 percent unsure.
Independents…oppose defunding by a slight plurality of 44 percent to 40 percent. However, when the issue of shutting down the government is included, opposition to the measure swells to 65 percent, while support drops to just 14 percent.

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/09/23/john-boehner-doesnt-have-to-let-a-radical-minority-paralyze-our-government/

    Yes, there is one group that does. 

     "Only Republicans who identify themselves as Tea Partyers want the law defunded even if it means a shutdown. Non-Tea Party Republicans don’t want it. Neither do independents. Neither do Americans overall."

    So which group is Boehner going to listen to? 

     P.S. A lot of Dems are even kind of cool with the idea of a govt shutdown-if the GOP forces one they assume it will be short and that it will remind Americans how out there the GOP has become. 

     "Democrats don't fear a shutdown. They do fear a debt-ceiling breach. Politically, Democrats think Republican brinksmanship is all gravy for them, and many believe some kind of massive Republican misstep would actually be healthy for the political system, as it might lead to a public rejection of the GOP's more extreme tactics. But in terms of actual impact on actual human beings, Democrats aren't particularly concerned about the consequences of a shutdown, while they're horrified by the potential consequences of even a short-lived default."

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/23/wonkbook-democrats-to-boehner-there-will-be-no-debt-ceiling-negotiation-seriously/

    Yet surely there's not a need for more proof of this is there?
   

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