My Prediction: We Avoid the Government Shutdown

     It's all up the Boehner. That's not a great place to be-the entire machinery of the government itself hanging on Boeher's rationality, but I think he has enough that this won't happen. So I'm predicting it ultimately doesn't happen. In the end he will let the House vote on the Senate bill and that of course has the votes to pass. Mind you it may seem thin gruel to expect salvation from Boehner who regularly makes comments like this:

    "After President Obama reiterated that House Republicans should pass a spending bill and give up their effort to stop Obamacare, House Speaker John Boehner's office chastised the president for "grandstanding."

    “The House will take action that reflects the fundamental fact that Americans don’t want a government shutdown and they don’t want the train wreck that is Obamacare," Boehner spokesman Brendan Buck said in a statement. "Grandstanding from the president, who refuses to even be a part of the process, won’t bring Congress any closer to a resolution.”

    "Boehner's press office also noted, after Obama also announced he had held a historic phone call with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, that the president had not called Boehner this week."

     http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/boehner-s-office-criticizes-obama-s-grandstanding

     Talk about chutzpah. After all, Boehner has often spurned the President's calls to his office. Even refusing to honor the normal protocol of speaking with the President the night after his reelection in 2012. 

    If, before election day, Barack Obama still maintained any illusions about the possibility of working with Congressional Republicans in a second term, he's got to be over that now, because...

   "When Obama tried to do the gracious thing--calling Republican leaders John Boehner and Mitch McConnell after accepting Mitt Romney's concession--not to gloat, but  probably planning to say something like, "I look forward to working with you," both of those "leaders" REFUSED TO TAKE HIS CALL."

   http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/08/1159300/-The-first-lesson-of-the-second-term

  So if Obama does call will he answer? In fact Boehner is probably lying about Obama not calling now. So why do I have hope? Because Boehner is actually the pot calling the kettle black: in fact he's the one engaging in grandstanding. This is why we have to always go to the brink in every hostage situation. It's so Boehner can plausibly argue to the base that he did everything he could but in the end Obama is just too irresponsible and he had to do the responsible thing. 

  However, now that the Senate as expected has passed the CR without any defunding of Obamacare, it's up to him if he really wants to go over the brink. Unless he's much crazier than I think he is-and I do think that he like almost all GOPers today is unhinged to quite a degree, he will let it through after every other nonstarter-like House Repubs demanding a unilateral acceptance of a one year delay of Obamacare-falls flat. 

  It's not just Boehner, the only way for any Republican who is reasonable on any issue to survive the most absurd and maudlin theatrics are necessary. Check out Ted Cruz:

  "Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has said the House probably won't accept the "clean" bill to avert a government shutdown. GOP leaders are mulling several options on what to do next. One possibility, according to sources, is to attach two Obamacare-related provisions to the continuing resolution -- repeal of the medical device tax, and a provision denying members of Congress subsidies under the health care law -- and send it back to the Senate."

    "But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) categorically ruled that out on Friday.
"Let's be absolutely clear: we are going to accept nothing that relates to Obamacare.," he toldreporters after the bill passed, calling on Republicans to "get a life" and talk about something other than Obamacare.
That leaves House GOP leaders in a very tough spot. Their predicament is exacerbated by the fact that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), the leader of the quixotic push to defund Obamacare, is privately telling conservative House members to defy Boehner's fiscal strategy, according to theNational Review. Boehner has been trying to persuade members not to shut down the government over Obamacare by dangling all sorts of conservative goodies before them in a bill to lift the debt ceiling and stave off a catastrophic debt default."

    "I very much hope that when the House bill comes back all 46 Republicans stand together, stand united against Obamacare," Cruz told reporters, standing beside Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Marco Rubio (R-FL). "The House was always in a position where it was going to lead. And I know from my perspective and Sen. Lee's perspective we look forward to helping and supporting the House, standing up and doing the right thing for the American people."

     http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/gop-descends-into-civil-war-over-obamacare-as-shutdown-looms

    However, wouldn't this be more believable if Rubio had actually voted against the motion to take up the CR with no rollback in Obamacare? In fact he was one of the unanimous 100 Senators to let it go to a vote 

   All this rhetoric now it to convince the base that he didn't betray them when he obviously did. After all, if he wants the House to stand against Obamacare why did he vote to allow it to be voted on and not use the filibuster to stop it? That we have the rare specter of the Senate actually passing something without a supermajority proves that this CR win no cut to ACA has their blessing. 

  I see that GOP Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma agrees with me. He thinks Boehner caves. 

  http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/tom-coburn-government-shutdown-97465.html?hp=l2

  Look, I'm no fan of Boehner and I know he's crazy as virtually all Republicans are these days. Still. I think he still has some level of sanity. I mean the record is clear. This never helps the GOP politically. Not in 1995, not in 2011 and 2012. It sure won't now. Yes the GOP is a slow learner but surely it gets that it can't win in a government shutdown. I mean surely the height of illogical is to do the same thing that's brought endless failure and expect a different result?  

  Now it has become painfully clear that the GOP has learnt nothing from the 2012 election. Even the one thing it seemed they did learn-immigration reform-they have allowed themselves to believe that may it's just that not enough white people voted in 2012. However, that a government shutdown will kill the GOP I can't believe anyone in the party's establishment doesn't fully understand that. 

  If Boehner really believes that this time they'll somehow convince everyone that it's all the Democrats' fault then using the word 'logic' in the same sentence as 'Republcan' has now become an absolute oxymoron. 

  So I take my stand in saying there won't be a shutdown. At the 11th hour-and he has to wait till then to please the base that he really did everything he can-he will let the House vote on the clean version of the Senate bill. We will know the answer pretty soon. If I gave Boehner-and therefore the GOP establishment-d a lot more credit than he deserves.