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Friday, September 6, 2013

Sumner's Wild Theory on the President's Reason For Nominating Summers

      I would prefer Yellen too, by a lot. I hope the conventional wisdom-that it's more and more likely that he's the guy-turn out wrong. There's a good deal of debate as to Mr. Summers monetary views and how he would run the Fed.

      You may or may not believe that Summers is an inflation hawk based on some skepticism regarding the effectiveness of QE. The claim that he's a inflation hawk at heart doesn't sound wildly implausible-which is far from saying it's therefore true. However, Sumner's explanation for Summers' nomination if he really is the guy is just a tremendous reach.


      "The ultimate head honcho is President Obama.  He is “the decider.”  He seems to want tighter money, and it looks like he’s already getting it."

      "PS. Maybe he wants tighter money so that the Keynesian “fiscal austerity” theory doesn’t get completely blown out of the water by monetary offset."


     You can question why the President seems to prefer Summers-it's a very good question. Much of what we're hearing is worthy of criticism if true-that it's a very insular process the White House is running in selecting the nominee and that the main reason Summers is the choice is the President likes him personally. However, I don't believe in any way his support for Summers is because he's hoping to tank the economy. It's tough to see how this would do much for his legacy. If true the President would be so short sighted it'd almost be pathological, kind of like his predecessor. 

    However, the idea that Obama actually sees it in his own long term interest to tank the economy is an impressive new watershed in casuistry for Sumner. Would Obama really prefer disproving the Sumner Critique for his legacy than have a healthy economy?

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