There are a number that suggest yes, including liberals like Jamelle Bouie who base this on a few polls that show Americans have lost some of their trust in government following all the scandals and pseudoscandals we have lately been treated to.
"The combination of all of this has led to declining trust in government. According to a recent NBC/WSJ poll, 55 percent of Americans said the IRS scandal made them doubt the “overall honesty and integrity” of the White House. Likewise, in a Fox News poll released after the NSA revelations, only 48 percent said that the president was “honest and trustworthy.” And at the same time as all of this, Obama’s approval has taken a slow dip in the Gallup tracking poll — it’s at 47 percent, the lowest since he was reelected"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/06/18/is-obama-losing-the-publics-trust-very-possible/
Super pollster, Nate Silver, argues that the recent furor over the NSA wiretapping may have hurt him largely because of all the liberals and Democrats criticizing him. The theory is that independents are responsible for a drop in his popularity and independents are reasoning that if Democrats are critical of him then he must have truly done something wrong.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/17/is-democratic-criticism-on-n-s-a-hurting-obamas-approval-rating/#more-40444
If this is true, this is just one more example of why independents are given far too much credit in terms of their reasoning and discernment. In truth, nonpartisan Americans are less informed and their opinions are not somehow wiser because they are not formed under partisan impressions.
However, there's actually reason to question that Obama's approval has been hurt so much. While he is down to 47% on Gallup, this is actually still not so bad as only 44% disapprove. Indeed, Gallup has a piece today that shows that he's actually doing better relative to Americans' assessment of the overall economy than any President since Reagan.
"President Barack Obama's job approval rating thus far in 2013 has averaged 24 percentage points higher than Americans' satisfaction with the direction in which the country is going. This gap is typical for the Obama presidency, but represents a much greater presidential job approval premium than most other presidents since Ronald Reagan have enjoyed."
"More specifically, so far this year, an average of 50% of Americans have approved of the job Obama is doing as president. At the same time, an average of 26% have been satisfied with the direction of the country. Similarly, since the start of his presidency in 2009, Obama's average job approval rating has been running 26 points higher than Americans' average level of satisfaction with the nation, and has ranged from 22 to 30 points higher each year."
"By contrast, the average gap in approval vs. satisfaction for George W. Bush across the eight years of his presidency was 12 points. For Bill Clinton and for Ronald Reagan, it was 10 points. The only other president who consistently logged much higher job approval ratings than the prevailing level of U.S. satisfaction was George H.W. Bush during his one-term presidency from 1989-1993. However, even his average 21-point job approval premium falls short of Obama's."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/163139/obama-job-approval-easily-outpaces-satisfaction.aspx
So what could explain his relative-small-decline is an economy where consumer confidence is slowing a little right now and has actually still absorbing the very unnecessary and troublesome sequester.
If you factor in the opinion of the nation's drift, Obama is very popular. Obama is also light years more popular than Congress. While the President is always much more popular than Congress Obama's gap is still considerably wider than usual-the only exception was the first Bush during the Iraq war.
"Obama is also faring better than Congress in the court of public opinion, as his overall job approval rating averages 35 points higher in 2013 -- 50% vs. 15% -- and 30 points higher since 2009.
Obama's yawning advantage over Congress in popularity compares favorably with George W. Bush's 12-point lead between 2001 and 2008, an 18-point lead for Clinton from 1993 to 2000, and a 13-point lead for Reagan between 1981 and 1988 (with no congressional ratings in 1984 and 1985). In this case, however, George H.W. Bush's lead over Congress in job approval -- 39 points -- exceeds Obama's, a finding that can partly be attributed to Bush's surge in popularity around the time of the 1991 Gulf War."
Gallup puts it in context:
"President Obama's job approval rating has been sagging of late, consistently registering below 50% in Gallup Daily tracking in June. Nevertheless, it is well above Americans' overall satisfaction with the direction of the country, now in the mid-20s, and remains far ahead of Congress' job rating. All of this suggests Obama does not receive the full brunt of Americans' blame for the nation's economy and other factors that may be contributing to their general dissatisfaction with the country's direction. Obama's "likability" could play a role, in that his favorable rating is averaging about five points higher than his approval rating, potentially lifting it. However, at 55%, his current favorable rating is not unusually high for recent sitting presidents. Perhaps more important may be Obama's ability to appear above the fray of the intense partisan debates that have defined Washington in recent years and that appear to be tarnishing the image of a politically divided Congress."
Meanwhile, that CNN poll that there was such a rush to use to argue that his popularity has been mortally hurt if flatly contradicted by a new Pew poll-as it is contradicted by the Gallup article.
"A new survey from Pew Research Center released Wednesday indicated that President Barack Obama has largely weathered the controversies that have consumed the country's attention as of late — a far cry from a survey released earlier this week that showed his approval rating had dipped sharply."
"The Pew poll showed that 49 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama is doing while 43 percent said they disapproved. Those numbers are virtually identical to Pew's poll in May, when 51 percent said they approved of the President's job performance and 43 percent said they disapproved.
But Pew's latest runs counter to a CNN/ORC International poll released on Monday that found an 8-point drop to Obama's approval rating in the last month. The CNN/ORC poll also showed that Obama's support among Americans under the age of 30 had plummeted by 17 points since May.
While some pointed to the CNN/ORC numbers as evidence that Obama had been weakened by news of the Internal Revenue Service's targeting of conservative groups and the National Security Agency's sweeping surveillance programs, others such as polling expert Mark Blumenthal cautioned that the poll may have exaggerated the President's actual decline."
"According to Pew, Obama's approval rating is seven points higher than George W. Bush's in June of 2005 but five points lower than Bill Clinton's in June of 1997."
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/in-contrast-to-cnn-poll-pew-shows-stable
While all the Obama bashers are trying to make heavy weather of the CNN poll, there's little to show that he has been mortally hurt and it will take a lot to make him as unpopular as say Mitch McConnell.
"The combination of all of this has led to declining trust in government. According to a recent NBC/WSJ poll, 55 percent of Americans said the IRS scandal made them doubt the “overall honesty and integrity” of the White House. Likewise, in a Fox News poll released after the NSA revelations, only 48 percent said that the president was “honest and trustworthy.” And at the same time as all of this, Obama’s approval has taken a slow dip in the Gallup tracking poll — it’s at 47 percent, the lowest since he was reelected"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/06/18/is-obama-losing-the-publics-trust-very-possible/
Super pollster, Nate Silver, argues that the recent furor over the NSA wiretapping may have hurt him largely because of all the liberals and Democrats criticizing him. The theory is that independents are responsible for a drop in his popularity and independents are reasoning that if Democrats are critical of him then he must have truly done something wrong.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/17/is-democratic-criticism-on-n-s-a-hurting-obamas-approval-rating/#more-40444
If this is true, this is just one more example of why independents are given far too much credit in terms of their reasoning and discernment. In truth, nonpartisan Americans are less informed and their opinions are not somehow wiser because they are not formed under partisan impressions.
However, there's actually reason to question that Obama's approval has been hurt so much. While he is down to 47% on Gallup, this is actually still not so bad as only 44% disapprove. Indeed, Gallup has a piece today that shows that he's actually doing better relative to Americans' assessment of the overall economy than any President since Reagan.
"President Barack Obama's job approval rating thus far in 2013 has averaged 24 percentage points higher than Americans' satisfaction with the direction in which the country is going. This gap is typical for the Obama presidency, but represents a much greater presidential job approval premium than most other presidents since Ronald Reagan have enjoyed."
"More specifically, so far this year, an average of 50% of Americans have approved of the job Obama is doing as president. At the same time, an average of 26% have been satisfied with the direction of the country. Similarly, since the start of his presidency in 2009, Obama's average job approval rating has been running 26 points higher than Americans' average level of satisfaction with the nation, and has ranged from 22 to 30 points higher each year."
"By contrast, the average gap in approval vs. satisfaction for George W. Bush across the eight years of his presidency was 12 points. For Bill Clinton and for Ronald Reagan, it was 10 points. The only other president who consistently logged much higher job approval ratings than the prevailing level of U.S. satisfaction was George H.W. Bush during his one-term presidency from 1989-1993. However, even his average 21-point job approval premium falls short of Obama's."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/163139/obama-job-approval-easily-outpaces-satisfaction.aspx
So what could explain his relative-small-decline is an economy where consumer confidence is slowing a little right now and has actually still absorbing the very unnecessary and troublesome sequester.
If you factor in the opinion of the nation's drift, Obama is very popular. Obama is also light years more popular than Congress. While the President is always much more popular than Congress Obama's gap is still considerably wider than usual-the only exception was the first Bush during the Iraq war.
"Obama is also faring better than Congress in the court of public opinion, as his overall job approval rating averages 35 points higher in 2013 -- 50% vs. 15% -- and 30 points higher since 2009.
Obama's yawning advantage over Congress in popularity compares favorably with George W. Bush's 12-point lead between 2001 and 2008, an 18-point lead for Clinton from 1993 to 2000, and a 13-point lead for Reagan between 1981 and 1988 (with no congressional ratings in 1984 and 1985). In this case, however, George H.W. Bush's lead over Congress in job approval -- 39 points -- exceeds Obama's, a finding that can partly be attributed to Bush's surge in popularity around the time of the 1991 Gulf War."
Gallup puts it in context:
"President Obama's job approval rating has been sagging of late, consistently registering below 50% in Gallup Daily tracking in June. Nevertheless, it is well above Americans' overall satisfaction with the direction of the country, now in the mid-20s, and remains far ahead of Congress' job rating. All of this suggests Obama does not receive the full brunt of Americans' blame for the nation's economy and other factors that may be contributing to their general dissatisfaction with the country's direction. Obama's "likability" could play a role, in that his favorable rating is averaging about five points higher than his approval rating, potentially lifting it. However, at 55%, his current favorable rating is not unusually high for recent sitting presidents. Perhaps more important may be Obama's ability to appear above the fray of the intense partisan debates that have defined Washington in recent years and that appear to be tarnishing the image of a politically divided Congress."
Meanwhile, that CNN poll that there was such a rush to use to argue that his popularity has been mortally hurt if flatly contradicted by a new Pew poll-as it is contradicted by the Gallup article.
"A new survey from Pew Research Center released Wednesday indicated that President Barack Obama has largely weathered the controversies that have consumed the country's attention as of late — a far cry from a survey released earlier this week that showed his approval rating had dipped sharply."
"The Pew poll showed that 49 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama is doing while 43 percent said they disapproved. Those numbers are virtually identical to Pew's poll in May, when 51 percent said they approved of the President's job performance and 43 percent said they disapproved.
But Pew's latest runs counter to a CNN/ORC International poll released on Monday that found an 8-point drop to Obama's approval rating in the last month. The CNN/ORC poll also showed that Obama's support among Americans under the age of 30 had plummeted by 17 points since May.
While some pointed to the CNN/ORC numbers as evidence that Obama had been weakened by news of the Internal Revenue Service's targeting of conservative groups and the National Security Agency's sweeping surveillance programs, others such as polling expert Mark Blumenthal cautioned that the poll may have exaggerated the President's actual decline."
"According to Pew, Obama's approval rating is seven points higher than George W. Bush's in June of 2005 but five points lower than Bill Clinton's in June of 1997."
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/in-contrast-to-cnn-poll-pew-shows-stable
While all the Obama bashers are trying to make heavy weather of the CNN poll, there's little to show that he has been mortally hurt and it will take a lot to make him as unpopular as say Mitch McConnell.
No comments:
Post a Comment