I can't pretend I'm surprised, nevertheless, this is a great day as the Senate passed historic legislation to reform immigration that will help millions of immigrants and dramatically help our economy to boot. Immigration is something that both politically and economically Americans should be for.
Politically as this is in keeping with our ideals as written on the Statue of Liberty that welcomes immigrants. Economically, as this is one major advantage we have over the immigrant phobic countries of Europe and Japan.
Again, I've been pretty confident that immigration reform is going to happen.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/06/immigration-reform-is-going-to-happen.html
It really comes down to one man- Republican House Speaker John Boehner. The question is simple: will he or won't he? Will he bring the Senate bill to the floor or won't he? He's been claiming that he won't without satisfying the Hastert Rule-where the 'majority of the majority'; that is to say a majority of Republicans have to support any legislation for him to bring it up for a vote. Jonathan Bernstein and Greg Sargent argue that it comes down to what many House Republicans want to do-it may be that there's enough that want it to pass so that Boehner would have their blessing to bring it up and let the Dems vote it through.
If anything makes sense it's Bernstein's argument that we won't be able to gauge whether or not rank and file House Republicans want it to pass by simply taking their public statements at face value.
It seems that Boehner is between a rock and a hard place: if the bill isn't passed this will hurt the GOP a lot in the next few elections-while the conventional wisdom is that the GOP base will be more motivated in 2014 than the Democrats, a defeat of immigration reform could be the impetus that changed that-on top of the SCOTUS mangling the Voting Rights Act
On the other hand many House Republicans are concerned mostly with avoiding a Tea Party primary challenge. Today House conservatives 'encouraged' Boehner not to break the Hastert Rule. This encouragement came in the form of threatening to depose him if he does.
“There gets to be a point in time where there is the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back,” Rep. Matt Salmon (R-AZ) said Wednesday, arguing that if Boehner violates the Hastert Rule again on the issue, “I think that a lot of members in the conference would probably be frustrated to the point of looking for new leaders.”
Politically as this is in keeping with our ideals as written on the Statue of Liberty that welcomes immigrants. Economically, as this is one major advantage we have over the immigrant phobic countries of Europe and Japan.
Again, I've been pretty confident that immigration reform is going to happen.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/06/immigration-reform-is-going-to-happen.html
It really comes down to one man- Republican House Speaker John Boehner. The question is simple: will he or won't he? Will he bring the Senate bill to the floor or won't he? He's been claiming that he won't without satisfying the Hastert Rule-where the 'majority of the majority'; that is to say a majority of Republicans have to support any legislation for him to bring it up for a vote. Jonathan Bernstein and Greg Sargent argue that it comes down to what many House Republicans want to do-it may be that there's enough that want it to pass so that Boehner would have their blessing to bring it up and let the Dems vote it through.
If anything makes sense it's Bernstein's argument that we won't be able to gauge whether or not rank and file House Republicans want it to pass by simply taking their public statements at face value.
It seems that Boehner is between a rock and a hard place: if the bill isn't passed this will hurt the GOP a lot in the next few elections-while the conventional wisdom is that the GOP base will be more motivated in 2014 than the Democrats, a defeat of immigration reform could be the impetus that changed that-on top of the SCOTUS mangling the Voting Rights Act
On the other hand many House Republicans are concerned mostly with avoiding a Tea Party primary challenge. Today House conservatives 'encouraged' Boehner not to break the Hastert Rule. This encouragement came in the form of threatening to depose him if he does.
“There gets to be a point in time where there is the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back,” Rep. Matt Salmon (R-AZ) said Wednesday, arguing that if Boehner violates the Hastert Rule again on the issue, “I think that a lot of members in the conference would probably be frustrated to the point of looking for new leaders.”
"Speaking at a Capitol Hill panel organized by the Heritage Foundation, Salmon said there’s “great unrest” among Republicans about the violations of the majority-of-the-majority principle this year. GOP leaders have this year brought up four bills without the support of most House Republicans — including legislation to avert the fiscal cliff, provide aid to Hurricane Sandy victims and reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act."
"Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) issued the same threat."
“The American people elected a Republican majority to the House of Representatives,” McClintock said. “Were a leader of that majority to use his authority to circumvent that majority, that would be cause for removal in my judgment.”
It was Boehner who said he needs this job lie a hole in his head! Greg Sargent argues that another important House Republican to watch is Paul Ryan. He has spoken positively about 'immigraton reform' in general terms-as has Boehner-but today on Fox he says he wants to do it the House Republican way-which he says is 'methodical.'
"Rep. Paul Ryan says the House won’t be taking up the Senate immigration bill, but it will be working on its own legislation that he says will create a “workable legal immigration system.”
"The Wisconsin Republican told Sean Hannity on Fox News on Wednesday that the border security amendment to immigration reform passed by the Senate brings that bill closer to the House position, but he wants to make sure there are “triggers” in the final bill."
"We’re not going to bring up the Senate bill, we’re going to do it our own way, on our own very methodical way, because we want to make sure we get this stuff right,” Ryan said. “We want to have real triggers on the border, real triggers on what we call the e-verify.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/paul-ryan-immigration-bill-93490.html#ixzz2XSPGqQ6I
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/paul-ryan-immigration-bill-93490.html#ixzz2XSPGqQ6I
Yes, that's the Republican way. That's how they passed the farm bill and Boehner's fiscal cliff bill. Oh wait.
On the other hand, Ryan did say that a path to citizenship is not 'amnesty.' So he's still playing both sides. My guess is that most GOP leaders like Ryan, Boehner, and Cantor will continue to do just that. They don't want their to be no ambiguity as to what they may or may not support. If they do plan to allow the Senate bill, they necessarily have to do this. Not surprisingly, with that hit on his head, Boehner spoke as if bringing up the Senate bill as is, simply isn't an option.
"Today Speaker John Boehner actually drew a sharper line than before in ruling out any vote on an immigration bill that lacks the support of a majority of House Republicans. Hesaid such a bill would not get a vote even if it emerged from Senate-House conference negotiations. Boehner appears to be continually caving to conservative demands to rule out letting anything that might pass with Dem support to even get to the House floor."
Still, it's not clear whether this is simply caving to the conservatives or giving himself room to maneuver. It's not like the other times he broke the Hastert Rule he came in vowing to. At the end of the day, my bet is that Boehner does what he knows he has to do. I don't think he lets the House GOP take blame for its failure-and he probably has the support of Ryan and Cantor on this. Intellectually, the only conservative group still with the anti immigration crusade is the Heritage Foundation-most other organs of the conservative press are behind this. There's some great company to keep.
Let's finish with something less unpleasant than House GOP politics-Harry Reid's stirring dedication of this bill's passage to the late Edward Kennedy:
"Just before the vote Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) dedicated the decision, in part, to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.), who worked for reform but never saw it signed into law."
"Senator Kennedy knew the day would come when a group of senators, divided by party, but united by love of country, would see this fight to the finish," Reid said. "So the day is today. And while I am sad that Senator Kennedy isn’t here to see history made, I know he is looking at us proudly and loudly.
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