A Big Victory for Moderates in Iran

     There has been a lot of unhappiness with the Far Right domination of the country for some time-I've actually spoken with Iranian citizens about this playing Internet chess, where I was told that most people were very unhappy with Ahmadinejad. In the recent election moderates have their biggest victory yet which is being seen as a rebuke to extremism and as vindication after it was widely felt that the 2009 re-election of Ahmadinejad was not legitimate, keeping out the popular former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Initially, moderates and liberals had been demoralized, after Rafsanjani was kept off the ballot this year. 

      "Wild celebrations broke out on Tehran streets that were battlefields four years ago as reformist-backed Hasan Rowhani capped a stunning surge to claim Iran’s presidency on Saturday, throwing open the political order after relentless crackdowns by hard-liners to consolidate and safeguard their grip on power.

      “Long live Rowhani,” tens of thousands of jubilant supporters chanted as security officials made no attempt to rein in crowds — joyous and even a bit bewildered by the scope of his victory with more than three times the votes of his nearest rival.

     http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/iranian-reformists-celebrate-as-rowhani-wins-presidency.php?ref=fpa

     To be sure, this doesn't mean that change and reform are going to be here overnight. 

     But in Iran, even landslides at the ballot box do not equate to policymaking influence.

    "All key decisions — including nuclear efforts, defense and foreign affairs — remain solidly in the hands of the ruling clerics and their powerful protectors, the Revolutionary Guard. What Rowhani’s victory does is reopen space for moderate and liberal voices that have been largely muzzled in reprisal for massive protests and clashes in 2009 over claims the vote was rigged to deny reformists the presidency."

     Speaking of reopening a space for moderates and liberals. Rowhani declares:

     “I’ve never been an extremist,” Rowhani said on state TV shortly after the official results were announced. “I support moderation.”

     “I thank God that once again rationality and moderation has shined on Iran,” he continued. “This is the victory of wisdom, a victory of moderation and a victory of commitment over extremism.”

     It also may lower the temperature with Western countries and Israel. 

     "His emphasis on outreach could sharply lower the political temperature between Iran and the West — including Israel — and perhaps nudge the ruling establishment toward more flexible approaches in possible renewed nuclear talks with the U.S. and world powers. Rowhani also has added leverage with his political godfather and ally, former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was blocked from the ballot but now can exert significant influence from the wings."

    "The White House congratulated Iranian voters for “their courage in making their voices heard” despite clampdowns that included severe restrictions on the Internet, a key tool of Iran’s opposition. Washington urged Tehran’s leadership to “heed the will of the Iranian people and make responsible choices,” while noting the U.S. remained open for direct dialogue with Iran."

     Still, Rowhani's power over foregin policy is limited by the cleric dominated system-it's a complicated system that while technically a democracy, is really a theocracy in important ways. He has more power over the economy but there, the fly in the ointment are U.S. sanctions set to take effect in July, six weeks before he comes into office. 

     In any case, his improbable come from behind victory at least opens up a much more open, liberal dialogue-an important precursor to real change.