The politics of gun control are tricky as Greg Sargent has documented. There are some polls that show that Red State Dems and Purple State Repubs have been hurt by voting against Manchin-Toomey. However, as Sargent says, it'll be an uphill climb.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/04/30/republicans-are-feeling-a-bit-of-pressure-on-guns-will-it-matter/
Nevertheless, I think at most it's a matter of time. The question is will we have another vote on M-T during this session of Congress? It depends on how strongly gun control advocates-you and me-fight for it.
We hear a lot about the power of the NRA and the gun lobby and clearly many Senators and Congress critters fear it. I agree it's overdone-like the legend that Clinton helped propagate that 1994 was largely about the Brady Bill-not to say he doesn't believe that just that I think he may exaggerate it in his own mind.
On the other hand, the gun lobby is strong. Heidi Heitkamp says she received more calls from against M-T to for it by a 7-1 margin.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/04/if-you-want-gun-control-call-your.html
This would seem to lend credence to the idea that despite the huge numbers that favor background checks the small amount opposed have more intensity. However, I do think that Newtown may be a tipping point; most Americans just think it's wrong that we do nothing in the wake of 20 first graders being gunned down in their classroom along with 6 of the adults their to take care of them and teach them.
Jeff Flake seems to believe that the vote hurt him:
"Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) has resigned himself to the reality that his "no" vote on a bill that would have expanded background checks on gun buyers caused his approval rating to dip sharply, and Democratic pollster Tom Jensen said he's glad."
"Jensen's firm Public Policy Polling released findings on Monday that showed Flake's approval rating had plummeted to 32 percent among Arizona voters following his opposition to the gun bill, numbers that made him one of the most unpopular senators in the country. The poll also showed that 52 percent of voters are less likely to support Flake as a result of his vote on the legislation."
"After initially taking a shot at PPP on Monday, Flake later conceded on Facebook that his opposition to the background checks measure probably caused his approval rating to take a "southerly turn."
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/ppp-director-glad-flake-has-accepted-sliding-poll
However, it's shaping up right now that Kelly Ayotte is at ground zero of this fight. Gun control groups like Mayor Bloomberg's and Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords are focusing on Ayotte and she is taking a lot of hits.
"Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s town hall meeting here ended with scant discussion of gun control, an issue that consumed Washington for much of the past month."
"Pro-gun control activists, who attended the meeting, were incensed. Security brushed aside two women who approached Ayotte and demanded to speak with the first-term Republican about her vote against expanded background checks for commercial gun sales, underscoring the lingering controversy that continues to hover over the New Hampshire senator."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/kelly-ayotte-gun-vote-90811.html#ixzz2S3S0VqbD
"Erica Lafferty, the daughter of slain Sandy Hook Elementary School principal Dawn Hochsprung, confronted Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) Tuesday over her vote against expanding background checks for firearm purchases."
"You had mentioned that day you voted, owners of gun stores that the expanded background checks would harm," Lafferty said, during a town hall in Warren, N.H. "I am just wondering why the burden of my mother being gunned down in the halls of her elementary school isn't more important than that."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/04/30/republicans-are-feeling-a-bit-of-pressure-on-guns-will-it-matter/
Nevertheless, I think at most it's a matter of time. The question is will we have another vote on M-T during this session of Congress? It depends on how strongly gun control advocates-you and me-fight for it.
We hear a lot about the power of the NRA and the gun lobby and clearly many Senators and Congress critters fear it. I agree it's overdone-like the legend that Clinton helped propagate that 1994 was largely about the Brady Bill-not to say he doesn't believe that just that I think he may exaggerate it in his own mind.
On the other hand, the gun lobby is strong. Heidi Heitkamp says she received more calls from against M-T to for it by a 7-1 margin.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/04/if-you-want-gun-control-call-your.html
This would seem to lend credence to the idea that despite the huge numbers that favor background checks the small amount opposed have more intensity. However, I do think that Newtown may be a tipping point; most Americans just think it's wrong that we do nothing in the wake of 20 first graders being gunned down in their classroom along with 6 of the adults their to take care of them and teach them.
Jeff Flake seems to believe that the vote hurt him:
"Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) has resigned himself to the reality that his "no" vote on a bill that would have expanded background checks on gun buyers caused his approval rating to dip sharply, and Democratic pollster Tom Jensen said he's glad."
"Jensen's firm Public Policy Polling released findings on Monday that showed Flake's approval rating had plummeted to 32 percent among Arizona voters following his opposition to the gun bill, numbers that made him one of the most unpopular senators in the country. The poll also showed that 52 percent of voters are less likely to support Flake as a result of his vote on the legislation."
"After initially taking a shot at PPP on Monday, Flake later conceded on Facebook that his opposition to the background checks measure probably caused his approval rating to take a "southerly turn."
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/ppp-director-glad-flake-has-accepted-sliding-poll
However, it's shaping up right now that Kelly Ayotte is at ground zero of this fight. Gun control groups like Mayor Bloomberg's and Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords are focusing on Ayotte and she is taking a lot of hits.
"Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s town hall meeting here ended with scant discussion of gun control, an issue that consumed Washington for much of the past month."
"Pro-gun control activists, who attended the meeting, were incensed. Security brushed aside two women who approached Ayotte and demanded to speak with the first-term Republican about her vote against expanded background checks for commercial gun sales, underscoring the lingering controversy that continues to hover over the New Hampshire senator."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/kelly-ayotte-gun-vote-90811.html#ixzz2S3S0VqbD
At this Town Hall she was confronted by the daughter of a Newtown victim:
"Erica Lafferty, the daughter of slain Sandy Hook Elementary School principal Dawn Hochsprung, confronted Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) Tuesday over her vote against expanding background checks for firearm purchases."
"You had mentioned that day you voted, owners of gun stores that the expanded background checks would harm," Lafferty said, during a town hall in Warren, N.H. "I am just wondering why the burden of my mother being gunned down in the halls of her elementary school isn't more important than that."
"Ayotte told Lafferty she was sorry for her loss but did not directly answer the question."
"I think that ultimately when we look at what happened in Sandy Hook, I understand that's what drove this whole discussion -- all of us want to make sure that doesn't happen again," she said.
"Lafferty stormed out after the exchange, according to NBC News, saying she "had had enough."
It is a good question: while she can talk generically about being 'sorry about your loss' did this loss factor anywhere in her decision? She doesn't mention it, only the worry that someone who wants to buy guns could be inconvenienced.
If this is a tipping point then you might see something like we've seen on other issues where things that benefited Republicans against Democrats for a long time like abortion, immigration, or gay marriage suddenly turn. We saw this in the 2012 election when suddenly the GOP didn't want to discuss abortion anymore-it was just a diversion they sniffed from the economy.
It sure doesn't sound like gun control is something that Ayotte or Flake will be anxious to discuss any time soon.
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