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Thursday, May 9, 2013

The Facts Don't Seem to Have a Market Monetarist Bias

     At least this is the consensus of most economists. Usually Sumner claims that there is no such thing as public opinion in economics, which amounts to the idea that only economists have coherent opinions on economic matters. 

    However, the consensus of most economists here is different than Sumner who claims that fiscal austerity is good for you or at least not bad provided that the Fed offsets it: the famous Sumner Critique. Remember that MM is two things:

   1. Monetary easing

   2. Fiscal austerity (or tightening, contracting, etc.)

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/05/sumners-nuanced-support-of-austerity.html

    So how will he explain his fellow economists not buying the Sumner Critique? No doubt he'll blame this on the fact that they are taught IS-LM as undergrads-or maybe also that they're taught the New Keynesian DSGE as grads. In any case here's what his colleagues say:

    "The nation’s unemployment rate would probably be nearly a point lower, roughly 6.5 percent, and economic growth almost two points higher this year if Washington had not cut spending and raised taxes as it has since 2011, according to private-sector and government economists."

    "Fiscal tightening is hurting,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomic Advisors, wrote to clients recently. The investment bank Jefferies wrote of “ongoing fiscal mismanagement” in its midyear report on Tuesday, and noted that while the recovery and expansion would be four years old next month, reduced government spending “has detracted from growth in five of past seven quarters.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/09/us/deficit-reduction-is-seen-by-economists-as-impeding-recovery.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp&

    As Greg Sargent points out the Dems have certainly been closer to what these economists think is optimum than has the Repubs. 

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/05/09/the-morning-plum-one-party-is-threatening-the-recovery-far-more-than-the-other-is/

     At this point it's debatable if we even need to be discussing long term fiscal consolidation with the incredibly shrinking deficit we're seeing. If anything, the concern is it's happening too fast. 

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/05/09/the-morning-plum-one-party-is-threatening-the-recovery-far-more-than-the-other-is/

     Meanwhile, even Sumner's vaunted Fed doesn't agree with him about fiscal austerity right now. 

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-fiscal-multiplier-sumner-vs-bernanke.html

2 comments:

  1. Mike. You said:
    Remember that MM is two things:

    1. Monetary easing

    2. Fiscal austerity (or tightening, contracting, etc.)
    You´re just making this up to suit whatever...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Marcus I haven't made anything up. Scott himself said this if you'll check the link I supplied it shows that what he believes.

      Let me put it to you Marcus: do you belive in fiscal austerity?

      Delete