Iowa Stunner: Romney Wins By Only 8 Votes

      His winning is not a stunner, and had he lost it may not have been a stunner but that he beat out the runner up, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Sanotorum by only 8 votes surely is. It is scarcely possible to be closer.

      http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/03/9929201-romney-edges-past-santorum-in-iowa-caucuses-photo-finish?chromedomain=firstread

      So who wins? It depends on how you look at it. On the one hand Romney hadn't even put much effort into Iowa until it became clear late after Newt's fall that it was there for the taking. Romney had more or less written Iowa off and to get it in the win column is certainly a plus.

      Still it's astonishing how much Santorum caught on so quickly. A few weeks a go he was at 5%. It doesn't seem that Romney is loved by the Republican voters even now.

       He has lots of advantaged-money, organization, also he remains the presumed frontrunner. As a Democrat quite honestly I think you want to see this drag on as long as possible with lack of clarity of who will win as long as possible, whereas if you're a Republican you want to lock this up for Romney.

      The question is do the Republicans realize this? I think the party establishment has known this for awhile. However the voters have been unwilling to bite. However if this finally becomes clear Romney can still roll to a win.

      Santorum in part is just lucky, He peaked at the right moment. Every 2 weeks there was the new anti-Romney, his time just happened to be the right time. Can he build from here? New Hampshire would seem to be a dead loss for him as it's a moderate,. libertarian state where his arch social conservative, prolife position should cost him.

     Still perception is important. If the party's social conservatives see him as viable they may continue to do what they started to do in Iowa-take a way the votes for Perry or Bachman and give them all to Santorum. Romney still seems stuck at 25%. Arguably if there were fewer in the race there'd be a better chance at beating him. Then money will start to flow and it becomes self-fulfilling. As a Demcorat quite honestly I hope this is what happens, You can bet the Republican establishment-the RNC, etc-hopes dearly that it doesn't.

     The wild card is the hard to please, peevish Republican primary voter.