While the news today about 3rd quarter GDP being revised down from the initial estimate of 2.5% to 2.0% is not good news, consumer spending remains steady and business inventories had their biggest drop since the last quarter of 2009 which suggests the recovery is in decent shape the drop in estimates notwithstanding.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45399429
"Data so far suggest the fourth-quarter growth pace could exceed 3 percent, which would be the fastest in 18 months."
The fly in the ointment now is that with the flop of the super committee there/s a danger that the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits won't be extended. This is making projections for GDP next year a little more unclear.
Then there is the continuing debt crisis in Europe. This afternoon there is news that the IMF is going to jump in and help Europe-though it's facility like the EFSF may lack the firepower for a big country like Italy.
"Export growth was stronger than previously estimated, rising at a 4.3 percent rate instead of 4.0 percent. Imports increased at a much slower 0.5 percent rate rather than 1.9 percent."
This is significant as trade contributed about half of GDP growth. This has been a change we have seen since the recovery started in late 2009-it may be a fundamental change that there will be better export growth in the future after being in a bear market for the better part of 10 years.
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