I've been saying lately that I see it as pretty much inevitable that it will be a 'battle of dynasties' Bush vs. Clinton. If so this would work to the great advantage of the Dems and Hillary as even William F. Buckley's National Review concedes. NR points out that the Bush name is just a tremendous albatross as W's years remain 'terribly controversial' to say the least.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/394828/jeb-bush-wrong-name-wrong-time-charles-c-w-cooke
As NR admits, even if you knock Hillary for being part of a family dynasty the Clinton years are remembered much more fondly than the W years.
However, I must admit that Nate Silver has made a pretty good argument that maybe Jeb is not going to be the GOP nominee.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubio-and-the-pareto-frontier/
Basically, the main question that GOP voters and donors are concerned about is who-a la what the late Buckley said-is the most electable conservative?
My assumption throughout has been that even if some conservatives might grumble that Jeb is not conservative on certain issues-particularly immigration-they would conclude that he is the most electable.
However, as Silver points out, Jeb doesn't look terribly electable. His approval numbers among the general electorate aren't so hot. Usually the more moderate candidates are the more electable but not this year-both Bush and Christie are doing rather poorly.
I think with Jeb the name is going to be an albatross. My assumption was that the GOP would miss this point. However, maybe they won't. Maybe as Silver says, a candidate like Rubio will 'dominate' his mentor Bush as he is not only considered to be somewhat more conservative than Jeb but also more electable.
Silver also makes another great point: nobody likes Chris Christie.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/everybody-hates-chris-christie/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/chris-christie-2016-president-republican-primary-overrated/
Amen to that. As these two leading moderates are doing so poorly, Silver suggests that this could provide an opportunity for GOP Governor Kasich.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/kasich-could-be-the-gops-moderate-backstop/
Kasich's status as another GOP Governor in a Blue State might be a real challenge for Scott Walker who despite his attempt to run as a GOPer from a Blue or Purple State has a very polarizing reputation from his fights with the public unions-his recent attack on private unions kind of makes a liar of him incidentally.
Kasich came in like Walker breathing fire and brimstone against the public employee unions but has taken a more conciliatory tact-whether or not his policies have been more 'conciliatory-the last few years
P.S. So I'm willing to rethink my claim that Jeb is inevitable; I find this argument that he isn't compelling. Essentially, what this shows, I think, that if the GOP nominates Jeb it will be a mistake. A mistake that liberals and Hillary would relish. Time will tell if the Repubs really do see this.
However, Hillary is inevitable-not just her candidacy but her victory too, I will insist.
I see that Silver and friends agree about that as well.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hillary-clinton-steamroller-rumbles-to-life/
UPDATE: Regarding Jeb's inevitability however, there is this that suggests that maybe my theory about him is right:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/20/politics/2016-elections-republican-field-poll/index.html
His 17-12 lead isn't huge, to be sure, but he does seem to have separated himself from the field a little in this poll.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/394828/jeb-bush-wrong-name-wrong-time-charles-c-w-cooke
As NR admits, even if you knock Hillary for being part of a family dynasty the Clinton years are remembered much more fondly than the W years.
However, I must admit that Nate Silver has made a pretty good argument that maybe Jeb is not going to be the GOP nominee.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubio-and-the-pareto-frontier/
Basically, the main question that GOP voters and donors are concerned about is who-a la what the late Buckley said-is the most electable conservative?
My assumption throughout has been that even if some conservatives might grumble that Jeb is not conservative on certain issues-particularly immigration-they would conclude that he is the most electable.
However, as Silver points out, Jeb doesn't look terribly electable. His approval numbers among the general electorate aren't so hot. Usually the more moderate candidates are the more electable but not this year-both Bush and Christie are doing rather poorly.
I think with Jeb the name is going to be an albatross. My assumption was that the GOP would miss this point. However, maybe they won't. Maybe as Silver says, a candidate like Rubio will 'dominate' his mentor Bush as he is not only considered to be somewhat more conservative than Jeb but also more electable.
Silver also makes another great point: nobody likes Chris Christie.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/everybody-hates-chris-christie/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/chris-christie-2016-president-republican-primary-overrated/
Amen to that. As these two leading moderates are doing so poorly, Silver suggests that this could provide an opportunity for GOP Governor Kasich.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/kasich-could-be-the-gops-moderate-backstop/
Kasich's status as another GOP Governor in a Blue State might be a real challenge for Scott Walker who despite his attempt to run as a GOPer from a Blue or Purple State has a very polarizing reputation from his fights with the public unions-his recent attack on private unions kind of makes a liar of him incidentally.
Kasich came in like Walker breathing fire and brimstone against the public employee unions but has taken a more conciliatory tact-whether or not his policies have been more 'conciliatory-the last few years
P.S. So I'm willing to rethink my claim that Jeb is inevitable; I find this argument that he isn't compelling. Essentially, what this shows, I think, that if the GOP nominates Jeb it will be a mistake. A mistake that liberals and Hillary would relish. Time will tell if the Repubs really do see this.
However, Hillary is inevitable-not just her candidacy but her victory too, I will insist.
I see that Silver and friends agree about that as well.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hillary-clinton-steamroller-rumbles-to-life/
UPDATE: Regarding Jeb's inevitability however, there is this that suggests that maybe my theory about him is right:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/20/politics/2016-elections-republican-field-poll/index.html
His 17-12 lead isn't huge, to be sure, but he does seem to have separated himself from the field a little in this poll.
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