Pages

Thursday, April 3, 2014

Some Thoughts on Tomorrow's Job Numbers

     The market seems to be looking at tomorrow's BLS report as important-it gives us a hint whether the sag in economic numbers was just because of a cold winder or something is askew.

      http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/04/on-adp-and-bls-reports-question-for.html

      What I find interesting is how many different angles you can look at the numbers from. You can look at them as a political animal and ask what will they mean to Obama and the Dems-does a bad mark hurt them-even though in reality it's the responsibility of the House GOP to legislate and they've not been doing too much of that-so why blame the Democrats for poor numbers-because there's cartoon image in people's heads that the President has absolute control over the economy?

      You can look at it with your economist hat on-do disappointing numbers mean the recovery's in trouble? Does a good number definitively mean it isn't? You have Sumner of course-whether the news is good or bad and whether the market goes up or down in response, he'll declare it a victory for Market Monetarism.

       Or you can put on your investor's hat? Jim Cramer argues that a good report means the market is a buy and Bank of America is going higher. It if it isn't good then go with the new recent IPO CBSO-a CBS spin off-their outdoors division.

      You have me with my speculator hat and... What's interesting is that I find myself asking does a good number help or hurt me? Strange thought. However, I'm now in 4 positions: I bought 1000 shares each in KING-the IPO for Candy Crush- and CBSO and  got 40 options each in Citi and BAC. A good report might drive BAC and the two IPOs but damage my Citi put.

     If the overall Market goes down on teh other hand that doesn't mean that BAC can't go up, it's possible, not all stocks go in the market direction all the time-though they often do. This is why it's weird to be a speculator. What's bad for most interested parties can sometimes be good for you.

     My short Citi story isn interesting-not because I think the market is about to collapse but simply because C lost it's request to increase their dividend.   Then today they had more trouble as they're being investigated by the the Feds on their risk management.

     http://www.cnbc.com/id/101550983

     So my thought is that this stock may sell off in the near future due to its own specific problems not what the market is doing overall. I tend to think that BAC should get a positive bounce as they were able to pass the latest stress tests on teh banks.

      Then with KINGD and CGSO I don't they're simply going to do whatever the overall market is doing they're too IPOs that I thin got a chance at climbing soon. So yes it's strange to be a speculator-you're the only one who would ask it it's good the market rises tomorrow or not. 

No comments:

Post a Comment