Conservatives often act as if government jobs aren't real jobs, certainly Morgan is convinced that government job are less productive than the private sector. Yet the official job statistics factor in both the public and private sector job numbers.
Today's ADP numbers were strong
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101549712
However, what the market cares about is the BLS report on Friday that factors in both private and public sector jobs.
Incidentally, I'm back in the market-I've put my money where my mouth is again.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/03/jim-cramer-buy-bank-of-america-if-we.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29
This is not necessarily a good thing but I can afford it these days. I still think that BAC is a buy but I've gone more aggressive than I talked about by rather than buying 100 shares, instead buying 40 $18 calls which expire in early May. While I appreciate the warnings of Greg and Nanute, I do kind of feel they're perma bears on bank stocks. I mean eventually they'll be right but in the mean time these stocks have been climbing for years. At some point we'll have a correction but I'm not convinced we're there yet and when we do I don't think we'll go anywhere near the lows of 2009.
I have hedged this with 40 puts on C at $44.50 also expiring in early May. Also I jumped into a few of the recent IPOs-KING which is the Candy Crush IPO and CBSO. It's a hedge of Cramer's advice as he says that if the jobs report is god on Friday BAC is a buy but if it's bad CBSO is a buy.
At the least if the market gets hit this may give further impetus to C going down. So yes, the minute I get a little cash I'm back in but it's not a large amount-relative to my total cash. I'll see how I handle this. In 2008 my strategy of shorting the bank stocks-by stocking up on the put options worked great. However, I stayed too late at the party. On March 6 the market hit bottom but I refused to accept that. The rest is history.
Today's ADP numbers were strong
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101549712
However, what the market cares about is the BLS report on Friday that factors in both private and public sector jobs.
Incidentally, I'm back in the market-I've put my money where my mouth is again.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/03/jim-cramer-buy-bank-of-america-if-we.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29
This is not necessarily a good thing but I can afford it these days. I still think that BAC is a buy but I've gone more aggressive than I talked about by rather than buying 100 shares, instead buying 40 $18 calls which expire in early May. While I appreciate the warnings of Greg and Nanute, I do kind of feel they're perma bears on bank stocks. I mean eventually they'll be right but in the mean time these stocks have been climbing for years. At some point we'll have a correction but I'm not convinced we're there yet and when we do I don't think we'll go anywhere near the lows of 2009.
I have hedged this with 40 puts on C at $44.50 also expiring in early May. Also I jumped into a few of the recent IPOs-KING which is the Candy Crush IPO and CBSO. It's a hedge of Cramer's advice as he says that if the jobs report is god on Friday BAC is a buy but if it's bad CBSO is a buy.
At the least if the market gets hit this may give further impetus to C going down. So yes, the minute I get a little cash I'm back in but it's not a large amount-relative to my total cash. I'll see how I handle this. In 2008 my strategy of shorting the bank stocks-by stocking up on the put options worked great. However, I stayed too late at the party. On March 6 the market hit bottom but I refused to accept that. The rest is history.
Mike, O/T: Just doing an experiment here:
ReplyDelete$$
r = \frac{1}{\kappa} \; \frac{\langle I\rangle}{M_{0}}
$$
I found a blog by Jason Smith called "Information Transfer Economics" ... it looked terrible, all these jumbles of backslashes, curly braces and dollar signs (I figured it was some sort of formula formatting like LaTex or something... so I pasted a request to know how to translate that garbage into something human readable, and suddenly all the formulas appeared as they should, so I'm going to pasting it here and see if it looks like a formula too.
Nope. Hmmm... they are both blogspot blogs... I wonder what the difference is. Here's my comment on Jason's blog in case you're interested:
Deletehttp://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-islm-model-again.html?showComment=1396510569711#c5498535460855094305
OK, let's try this
DeleteΔI≡I−Iref=I0κlog⟨M⟩Mref
Im not sure Im a perm bear on bank stocks as much as Im just someone who doesn't want to support current bank activity. I think buying their stocks is exactly what their CEOs want us to do and I refuse to play along with them.
ReplyDeleteI think which banks will do well is mostly a political decision by regulators and politicians. Pretty much all of them were in the same shape in 2008 and the banking system as a whole was rotten.
This is why if I were to play speculative games in the secondary markets I think I would play in the currency markets. If Im going to invest, its going to be locally, but playing gambling games in secondary markets is probably a lot easier in currency markets. The reason being is that learning what things affect currency moves can be pretty easy and straightforward once you get monetary operations. People with gold standard thinking in a fiat money world can get their asses handed to them in currency markets as they bet on hyperinflation following QE, for example (Im talking to you Bill Gross, Peter Schiff) and I think there is a lot of good information about currency/banking operations on the net.
Stock prices can be cheered up, currency prices can't. Either the currency is available or it isn't. Knowing that QE isn't actually "adding any money" and is simply an asset swap gives you a leg up on the other side of the trade, and there are a LOT of misinformed Austrian types that will take that bet.
Good luck
Yes, I know about currencies. I have experimented but just with a practice account on Forex The thing with that is you play with very big money there. Big stakes
ReplyDeleteHow much do you need to play in currencies? I haven't ever really looked into it. Mike Norman offers a course over at MNE and he boasts no losing trades for the last 6+ months (maybe longer). Its about 2000$ to take the course but I don't know how much it takes to start up a trading account.
ReplyDeleteI just think there are a lot of pigeons in the currency markets. Find a bunch of hyperinflationistas betting on the Yen or Dollar crash and just go take their money.
Well, there's margins which can get expensive if it goes the wrong way. Your account starts at like $50,000-at least in my practice account at Forex. You dont have to put up that money yourself-it's like leverage. However, if things go wrong you have to put more in or the account gets closed.
ReplyDeleteI'm not at all arguing against it just pointing out that there's risk here like anything else. Also the fact that they think somethings' going to happen for wrong reasons doesn't mean it wont happen for another reason. Gold rises even though the Gold bugs are wrong-they think it's because the dollar's collapsing it's just because its a commodity whose price is rising.
50,000$! Thats quite an investment. Im not trying to argue that its a sure thing by any means but I do think if you really know what you are doing you can do real well. Mike Norman claims to have had NO losing trades in many months. Now many are probably just small gains but if you add up lots of small gains...
DeleteThe thing for me right now is I think you better be able to check this stuff all through the day and be ready to shift your positions and there is no way I can do that with my work schedule.
Where do you do practice accounts in Forex?
You don't invest $50,0000 but it's margin. You invest a much smaller amount-it's leverage. You buy on margin I should say.
Deletehttp://www.fxcm.com/forex-trading-demo/
Right, I get the margin thing but there could be a situation where you are on the hook for 50,000$ if things go against you, as you say. This is why taking the course would be so helpful I think. I really want to do it but I just can't gee it the time I think it deserves. I would have to take this very seriously. Not like my stock accounts where I just bought something and maybe a year later made a change. This would be day to day I imagine.
DeleteI mean you don't have put up all the money just a small fraction.
ReplyDeleteIf you're interested Greg try out the demo. I don't doubt that there's money to be made in it-there's money in many markets to be made. Just saying I know form hard experience there are no sure things.
ReplyDeleteThe stupidity of people betting against you is no guarantee. I'm not trying to discourage you though. I haven't read Mike specifically on this so maybe he has a really good system.