In This Morning's Job Report, the Big Enemy is High Expectations

     That's if you're a bull. The market wants to believe that the slower numbers we saw in the first few months this year were just about a very cold winter. The belief is that hiring picked up in March. It seems very likely that it did. The question is how much. What's clear when you watch the market is that things are graded on a curve. Numbers that are 'objectively' good in an 'absolute sense' may still be sold if they're lower than expectations which is why companies like Amazon, Google, and Apple are often graded on a curve. On the other hand, bad numbers in the 'objective' sense may even be bought if they're not as bad as expected. 

      After hunkering down in the cold winter months, employers most likely increased hiring in March, but maybe not as much as some traders would like to see.

     "The consensus forecast of economists is 200,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate of 6.6 percent, compared with the 175,000 jobs added in February and an unemployment rate of 6.7 percent, according to Thomson Reuters."

      "But there are whispers of 220,000 to 240,000, and some traders believe it could be even higher.

     http://www.cnbc.com/id/101552880

     So 200,000 could be seen as a disappointment.

     "A lot of the rally in the last couple of days has been people getting ahead of this number," said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG. He expects to see 225,000 jobs added, and he said it's a given stocks will sell off if the number misses the consensus.

     "Ultimately what matters is not whether it's 250,000 or 200,000. It's whether the number corroborates that the weakness earlier this year was weather related," Greenhaus said.

     "Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial, expects that 240,000 payrolls were added in March. Swonk said that the "hibernation" behavior of consumers in winter should have switched to a "migration" as more consumers started going out and traveling again, to resorts and elsewhere/"

        So if you're a bull you need to see a beat of expectations not just meeting them. Indeed, it may be that even not beating 225,000 could be seen as disappointing. The market wants to see the jobs number beat to the upside like March auto sales did-16.4 million actual to 15.8 million expected. Then again, a lot of the buying in anticipation has already happened as Greenhaus suggests.