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Monday, April 28, 2014

President Obama's Sanctions on Russia Mean Many Things to Different People

      Today, as expected he announced some new tougher sanctions on some more in Putin's inner circle-business associates, etc, as well as certain companies.

      "The United States expanded its sanctions against Russia on Monday, targeting members of President Vladimir Putin's "inner circle" and technology that could be useful to Russia's military.
President Barack Obama said the "targeted" sanctions are in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine."
 
     "The United States has taken further action today in response to Russia's continued illegal intervention in Ukraine and provocative acts that undermine Ukraine's democracy and threaten its peace, security, stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity," the White House said in a statement. Since a meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, on April 17, Russia "has done nothing" to meet its commitments "and in fact has further escalated the crisis," the White House said in a statement.
 
     "The Department of the Treasury is imposing sanctions on seven Russian government officials, including two members of President Putin's inner circle, who will be subject to an asset freeze and a U.S. visa ban, and 17 companies linked to Putin's inner circle, which will be subject to an asset freeze."
 
     "In addition, the Department of Commerce has imposed additional restrictions on 13 of those companies by imposing a license requirement with a presumption of denial for the export, re-export or other foreign transfer of U.S.-origin items to the companies."
 
     "Also, the departments of Commerce and State are tightening their "policy to deny export license applications for any high-technology items that could contribute to Russia's military capabilities. Those Departments also will revoke any existing export licenses that meet these conditions," the White House said.
 
     "Sergey Ryabkov, Russia's deputy minister for foreign relations, called the sanctions "meaningless, shameful, and disgusting."
 
     "A senior Ukrainian government official called the new sanctions "a very good step, but we hope it's not the final step. Sector sanctions would be the really painful measure."
 
 
      For some it is already a bridge too far-the EU at this point is nervous going this far in fear what it would mean for important economic interests.
 
     "The European Union also is expected to impose sanctions Monday on about 15 Russian officials who are believed to be undermining democracy and creating chaos in Ukraine, according to Western diplomats."
 
     "The sanctions will include asset freezes and travel bans.The EU is not expected to impose sanctions on Putin associates in part because the European judiciary system has a much higher bar in terms of applying the law, the diplomats said."
 
      "Judges are not able to look at intelligence to sign off on the sanctions, they said. One Western diplomat said there was also some division within the EU as to whether sanctions against Putin's cronies should be imposed."
 
     "Several European countries are also concerned that their economic interests would be greatly affected by such sanctions. Additionally, some countries feel more space should be given to diplomacy before such measures are considered, the diplomat said."
 
     On the other hand some think they are a 'welcome step' as the 'senior Ukrainian government official' calls it. Then there are those who think Obama's moves today don't go far enough. In this group of course, are Right wing Republicans-the usual suspects, Lindsay Graham, John McCain, et. al. However, some within the White House worry as well.
 
 
    For now the White House prefers to work with the EU and not 'go it alone.'
 
    "Neither the United States nor EU is ready to impose sanctions on Russian industries, like the energy sector, both U.S. officials and Western diplomats said."
 
 
     There are two schools of thought on 'going it alone.' One side thinks that we must have unity for sanctions to really work. At present, the President is very much part of this side.
 
     "During internal deliberations, Jacob J. Lew, the secretary of the Treasury, and other officials have argued for caution, maintaining that, while action is needed, more expansive measures without European support might hurt American business interests without having the desired impact on Russia, according to people informed about the discussion.
Mr. Obama has been particularly intent on not getting too far in front of Europe to avoid giving Mr. Putin a chance to drive a wedge in the international coalition that has condemned the Russian annexation of Crimea and destabilizing actions in eastern Ukraine.
 
     “The notion that for us to go forward with sectoral sanctions on our own without the Europeans would be the most effective deterrent to Mr. Putin, I think, is factually wrong,” Mr. Obama told reporters in Asia, where he is traveling. “We’re going to be in a stronger position to deter Mr. Putin when he sees that the world is unified.” He added: “For example, say we’re not going to allow certain arms sales to Russia — just to take an example — but every European defense contractor backfills what we do, then it’s not very effective.”
 
     On the other hand, the other view argues that the EU is waiting for U.S. leadership and would follow us if we go forward.
 
     "Some officials, however, privately argue that the administration has made coordinating with Europe too high a priority and that effectively deferring to the 28-member European Union is a recipe for inaction. The United States, these officials contend, should move ahead with more decisive action on the theory that Europe wants leadership from Washington and historically joins in eventually."
 
    “While imposing sanctions together with the E.U. would be nice, the U.S. simply has to lead and not waste more time trying to present a united approach,” said David J. Kramer, president of Freedom House, an advocacy group, and a former Bush administration official, reflecting views expressed inside the government. “It’s easier for us to do so than it is for the Europeans, and they will follow, as long as we lead.”
 
    True, Kramer is a Bushie, however, this is a view of some in the White House as well. As to the market it has been down since the escalation of the conflict late last week. It started up higher today, on the optimism from all the Pfizer merger talk, however, the air is out of the tires again.
 
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101619545
 
    The trouble is, the market fears this kind of thing more than any other-a threat that is hard to quantify. It's tough to say what the collateral damage could be-the worst case scenario-and this is what increases anxiety. While those who want even tougher sanctions may or may not be right on merits of our own geopolitical interests, it may be very negative in terms of the investors, and perhaps the economy.
 
     So it is that for some today's sanctions were 'shameful and pointless' as claimed by some Russian officials, just about right, as the President hopes, a 'welcome first step' as hoped by the Ukranian official, or not enough-as argued by some 'hawks' both in and outside the White House.
 
     Then there is the impact for investors and the economy. This is why it's not always easy to say if a move like this was the right thing or not. The answers are just no so simple.
 
      

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