Hillary 2016? Anthony Weiner for NY City Mayor?!

     To me there are rather fantastic possibilities. I find it hard to imagine either happening. Yet, this is not to say I don't want to see them happen just have a hard time imagining them. What can you say about Anthony Weiner, the former NY Rep? I was once a lonely voice in the wilderness wondering why a good pubic servants career was destroyed over sending a few pictures on Twitter; honesty I didn't see what the hubbub was about. Indeed as I mentioned yesterday, that was my first ever post here at Diary of a Republican Hater.

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/05/a-word-to-all-my-diary-of-republican.html

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/05/a-word-to-all-my-diary-of-republican.html

    However, I must admit I find the idea of Weiner as New York City Mayor hard to fathom. I would actually love it if he did run and win; I'd read it as a kind of new watershed we've reached in societal evolution were we want let a tawdry nonstory take someone out of the running. Wouldn't it be cool if a man who is a known Twitter Sexter could also be Mayor of NYC? It's not that he's the only Sexter in politics but one of the few actually known.

   Nevertheless the chances seem remote though he polls very well in a recent poll of Democratic primary candidates behind only likely favorite Christine Qinnn.

    It looks like Weiner is on the rise.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/17/weiner-mayoral-poll-shows-second-christine-quinn_n_3099789.html

    Huff Po had to go there.

   "Ex-Congressman Anthony Weiner, who was forced to step down following a sexting scandal, would come in second if the Democratic primary for mayor were held today, a surprising new poll finds."

   "The NBC New York-Marist Poll released late Tuesday — the first since Weiner's re-emergence following a magazine article — found Weiner with 15 percent of the vote, trailing only frontrunner City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, with 26 percent."

   "That puts him ahead of Comptroller John Liu, former Comptroller Bill Thompson and Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, who all nearly tied, with Liu at 12 percent and Thompson and de Blasio at 11."

    While most Democrats still don't think he should run by a 46 percent to 40 percent margin, the more Dems have a favoral view than don't which is a reversal of past polls. 

    Having said all that, it is quite possible that he's just floating a trial balloon at this point to see just how damaged he is. 

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/04/11/anthony-weiner-for-new-york-city-mayor-pipe-dream-or-possibility/

    If things go well perhaps he'll run for something in the future. It also is possible that we haven't seen the last of his pics-more could come out he suggests. 

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/04/anthony-weiner-cant-rule-out-more-dick-pics.html

    It's hard to believe that New York Magazine actually has the words 'more dick pics' in the title but seeing is believing. 

    Regarding Hillary, I've been slow to buy into it. Partly just because I didn't really care about 2016 in the middle of the 2012 race. I just wanted to re-elect the President and let 2016 fall were it may. 

     It also seemed to me implausible that she's both seriously thinking about running and can really win. I'm not thinking about the general election-polls show her leading both Chris Christy and Marco Rubio-but rather the Democratic primary. Are voters really going to vote for someone they voted against in 2008? That's not the way the Democratic party works. 

    The Republican party is the party of wait your turn, the Democrats usually aren't interested in previous losers. What I kept coming back to is that in 2008 many Dem voters turned their back on Hillary arguing that she represents the previous generation but that now it was time for new blood. 

    That was 2008. How could she be considered new blood at 68 years old in 2016? If she was part of the previous generation then how can she be seen as the new in 2016?

    Understand that I say none of this from a standpoint of opposing her running. I'm actually a Hillary man from way back-since 1992. She was my first choice in 2008 but the party seemed to make up it's mind and she wasn't part of its vision. 

    Now it seems that she may be and its getting tough to deny she seems to have momentum-though it's still two years away from even starting. Being the favorite 3 and half years before the election is not necessarily the best place to be. 

    However, more and more developments are getting it hard to deny that this could be real. It is believed based on a source in his Administration that he won't run in 2016 if she does. 

    "New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo may be bowing out of the 2016 presidential race before it even gets close to starting. Frederic U. Dicker reports in the New York Postthat the prominent Democrat has whispered to associates that he won't run for the party's presidential nomination in 2016 if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton decides to make another bid for the White House. Cuomo has been considered a likely candidate — and "his sharp turn to the political left this year after two years governing as a moderate" has fueled speculation that he plans to run, Dicker says. Yet an insider in his administration says Cuomo knows and accepts that if Clinton runs, she'll easily win the nomination."

     "Plenty of people find the report easy to believe — because it's merely acknowledging what political strategists in both parties have been saying for months. Dicker "knows the New York terrain better than anyone," says Taylor Marsh at her blog, but his scoop isn't exactly shocking news. "It's the mostly unspoken truth that infuriates anti-Hillary folks. That if Hillary Clinton decides to run for president in 2016 she'll clear the field." The latest New Hampshire poll found Clinton to be the hands-down favorite to win the state's first-in-the-nation primary, with 61 percent of Democrats saying they'll back her. Cuomo, it seems, is merely accepting the indelible writing on the wall."

      http://theweek.com/article/index/243419/2016-election-is-andrew-cuomo-conceding-to-hillary-clinton-too-early

      The Governor denies this-he neither confirms or denies he's even thinking about running. It is more and more looking like a Hillary Wave:

      "At this point, a poll showing Hillary Clinton as the overwhelming favorite for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination is about as close as politics gets to a sure thing.

     "The latest findings from Quinnipiac University released on Thursday served as a reminder of that, with 65 percent of Democratic voters nationwide saying they would vote for the former secretary of state if the party’s presidential primary were being held today. Clinton lapped the other potential contenders included in the poll, claiming a more than 50-point advantage over the rest of the hypothetical Democratic field. Vice President Joe Biden registered only 13 percent support. Battling low name recognition, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley all failed to eclipse 5 percent support."

    "The gulf separating Clinton and the rest of the prospective crop of candidates is hardly unprecedented. A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll on Tuesday showed 63 percent of Democrats nationwide identifying Clinton as their preferred choice for 2016, crushing both Biden and Cuomo."

     "Meanwhile, a survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling last week found Clinton in a commanding position in New Hampshire, a perennial general election battleground state and home to the nation’s first presidential primary. Clinton earned the support of 68 percent of Granite State Democrats — Biden was a distant second with 12 percent — while also easily topping both Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) among all New Hampshire voters in hypothetical 2016 match-ups."

    "It’s worth noting that Clinton approached the 2008 presidential election in a position of similar strength among Democrats. But her enormous popularity and the growing movement to push her to run might make 2016 different. Before she left her post at the State Department earlier this year, polls routinely showed Clinton to be the most popular public figure in the country. Moreover, Ready for Hillary, a group designed to encourage Clinton to run, has already begun organizing and holding events like the rally in Washington, D.C. earlier this week."

    "The next presidential race is still a long way off, but there is already indication that Clinton’s dominance may be deterring other prospective candidates from entering the race. A report in the New York Post this week suggested that Cuomo will pass on a White House bid if Clinton is in the race. But Quinnipiac’s poll indicated that his chances might not improve much even in her absence."

     "Without Clinton in the field, the poll showed Biden defeating the New York governor and the other candidates by at least 30 points."

     http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/05/poll-clinton-2016-democrats.php?ref=fpb

     One that I would be happy to ride, but don't want to think about too soon. It is a long way off and anything could happen between now and then. Still, as TPM notes, a big change between Hillary 2008 and Hillary 2016 is she's so much more popular now. Of course, the saw about her being the most popular popular politician in the country is partly because she's not in elected office. That's how it usually works. She was much less popular running against President Obama. However, now she's much more popular than him as he's the one on the hot seat.

     Again, too early. I care about one President right now, the one we have now. Last thing needed is to count chickens before their hatched. So I'm greeting this news like anything that I would really like to be true but that it's too long in the future: I prefer not to dwell on it. However, I do wish Ready for Hillary good luck.