What's the Plan After Boehner's Plan B Fails?

     Boehner thought his Plan B would put the burden of action back on the President. Here's what he thinks he's gaining from it as his comments yesterday showed:

     John Boehner, at his minute-long appearance before the cameras today:

“Tomorrow, the House will pass legislation to make permanent tax relief for nearly every American — 99.81 percent of the American people. Then the president will have a decision to make. He can call on the Senate Democrats to pass that bill, or he can be responsible for the largest tax increase in American history.”

    "That appears to be a straightforward threat: If Obama doesn’t agree to raise tax rates only on income over $1 million, we’re going over the cliff. No other choice is offered. It’s one or the other."

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2012/12/19/and-over-the-cliff-we-go/

     Greg Sargent now seems to think that going over the cliff is a real possibility. I'm not so sure that it's not more theatrics for the benefit of the Tea Party. I certainly do agree with Sargent and Krugman, however, that Obama has certainly compromised enough. While I don't think his compromise in raising the floor on the higher taxes to $400,000-the $250,000 floor for married couples always seemed kind of low as such a couple is hardly rich. Sargent did make a good point the other day that this also cuts the taxes of those who make over $400,000-by lower rates on their income between $250,000 and $400,000.

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2012/12/20/the-morning-plum-white-house-should-let-boehner-keep-twisting-in-the-wind/

     Certainly Obama should not be looking for more compromises. My guess though is that a deal will get done before the end of the year. Doing so is in Boehner's interests anyway. Next year will give us a more liberal Senate and more Democrats in the House. What's more, Obama's raising the floor to $400,000 is as we saw above, a major concession-it would be less so if it weren't for the marginal rates between $250,000 and $400,000. Everything shows that the GOP will get most of the blame if we do go over the cliff.

    I guess part of my theory is that I'm banking on Boehner not being just ridiculously short-sighted. Admittedly I may be "underestimating" him here. For now though I really don't see it. It's not just assuming that he's not totally irrational-which may or may not prove a good assumption-it's that really, the differences between his approach and the President's is not so different. They're not that far apart.

   In any case, the GOP House will vote on the plan tonight, where it's far from a certainty that it goes through:

    "Today, the House will vote on John Boehner’s alternate fiscal cliff proposal, which would raise tax rates only on income over $1 million. It’s unclear whether it will pass. Boehner can only afford around two dozen defections, and The Hill’s whip count shows that 11 Republicans will likely vote No and more than a dozen more are undecided. If “plan B” fails, Boehner will be badly weakened, and perhaps left unable to broker any kind of compromise with Obama in January if we go over the cliff. It’s unclear how that would play out."

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2012/12/20/the-morning-plum-white-house-should-let-boehner-keep-twisting-in-the-wind/

    Tellingly while House Majority Leader Eric Cantor claims it will pass he also has said that members won't be going home after the vote-implicitly this suggests even if it passes.

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/cantor-members-wont-go-home-after-plan-b

    If it does pass on the other hand, the Dems likely won't vote on it at all. Their hand will not be forced as Boehner seems to imagine it will.

    "But what if “plan B” does pass? How do the White House and Dems respond? There are some on the right who think that if Boehner gets the bill through, it will put pressure on Senate Democrats to take it up or take the blame for going over the cliff."

    "I don’t see it. The more likely outcome is that Democrats will just let Boehner continue to twist in the wind. As Politico puts it:

"Senate Democrats haven’t settled on a final strategy, but the most likely option is they don’t even take the House bill up — if it passes — and pound the speaker for refusing to cut a deal with Obama."
 

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2012/12/20/the-morning-plum-white-house-should-let-boehner-keep-twisting-in-the-wind/