GOPLand may be a nice place to visit, but conservatives like Ms. Strassel stay there too long. So she wants to tell us that, yes, the President may get the tax plan he wants-of course it's in line with what the American people want, which she doesn't mention-but that it's all over from here.
She is considerate enough to warn the President that while he may be likely to get the raise in top tax rates he seeks, it will be a Pyrrhic victory. Very kind of her and her Wall Street Journal editorial page to look out for him like this.
To be sure, her theory is that Obama loses all his leverage once he gets his tax hikes for the rich is being heard quite widely. A good number of liberals seem to buy into this as well. Last night, Josh Marshall seemed to be buying into it. I love Josh but I think on this he's believing the hype:
"It seems crystal clear that Republicans will and know that they will concede the game on rates and try to reclaim power with a new debt ceiling hostage drama early next year. Having spent a few days in DC, it seems clear to me that absent a dramatic and preemptive climb down on the part of Congressional Republicans, this means we’re headed for the Mother of All Government Shutdowns."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/12/the_mother_of_all_government_shutdowns.php?ref=fpblg
I think this is overdone. As Greg Sargent says, this isn't 2011 anyone. It could happen but you're assuming there's no risk for the GOP in this. Actually this is what Ms. Strassel does assume:
"Let us assume that Mr. Obama is correct in his bet that the GOP will prove more responsible than he is and won't cliff-dive. The president's recent baiting of Republicans—his unreasonable offers, his public campaign to belittle them, his refusal to negotiate—has not put them in a generous mood. If Republicans have to fold on the top tax rates, it's a decent bet they will do only that—and nothing more. "
Oh, do tell, Ms. Strassel! Not in a generous mood? When has the GOP ever been in a generous mood? Was it at the start of 2009, just after Obama's historic victory and Boehner invited him to a meeting with the GOP leaders and he accepted? They weren't expecting that, Zizek would tell us that it's the case of a social offer that's meant to be turned down, but Obama surprised them by actually accepting it. So when Obama was on his way Bohner instructed the GOP troops to not work with Obama on anything.
Was that when they were in a generous mood? Was it when they all stuck together to oppose his stimulus and ObamaCare-and ObamaCare was actually Heritage Foundation idea passed by a Republican Governor? How about when McConnell said that the one overriding goal and objective is to make Obama a one term proposition?
How about the 2011 debt ceiling farce? The GOP used the debt ceiling as a hostage. Obama negotiated against himself making offer after offer and they kept demanding more. Even 85% spending cuts to 15% tax hikes was not accepted. Was that when the GOP was in a generous mood?
Of was it when Mitt Romney during the GOP primary declared that he wouldn't even accept a deal of 90% spending cuts and 10% tax hikes? Was that what GOP generosity looks like. Ms. Strassel seems to see nothing wrong with the spectacle of the country having to fight over raising the debt ceiling every few months or even every month. This apparently won't harm the famous "business confidence."
"The press's judgment is that last year's debt-ceiling fight was politically bad for both sides. The Republican recollection, by contrast, is that they forced Democrats to give them $2 trillion in cuts—and that was with the threat of a tax increase hanging over their heads. Mr. Obama won't have even that leverage next time around."
I think we've finally begun to see what the GOP's real problem is: very poor memory. They must have a poor one indeed if that's their "recollection." True, they did get their spending cuts in that round and no tax increases. However, that's exactly why this time around any fair deal will be top heavy on tax hikes for the rich and light on spending cuts-which is what, she seems to concede, looks likely to happen.
Yet, while they got what they wanted in that round, they also too a major hit in popularity. It's not true that it was politically bad for both sides. It wasn't great for Obama but it was toxic for the Republican brand. If their "recollection" needs jarring they ought to look at their performance on November 6 and see that it was much worse for the GOP. Can they afford further deterioration in their brand? If they're not careful the public will conclude that they only hope for functional government is to have a supermajority of Democrats at all levels of government.
If the Republicans see their salvation in holding the country hostage to a permanent crisis of debt ceiling chicken it becomes clearer how they really believed Romney was going to win in a landslide last month.
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