From Plan B to Plan Disarray

     As i mentioned in previous posts today I think the basis for a deal is there. While Boehner is humiliated, it may be that as Jonathon Bernstein suggests the vote was mostly about getting facts as to where his party members in the House are. What we don't know is how many GOPers would have voted for it. He may have learned he has enough to get a deal where there will be sizable Dem support-the Dems were not going to vote for Plan B so he needed 218 Republicans for success.

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/12/back-to-drawing-board-plan-b-stands-for.html

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/12/there-should-be-fiscal-cliff-deal.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29

     However, there is also shows the reduced power of conservatives going forward. The deal finally agreed to-which again, I think will happen before the New Year-will need large numbers of Democrats to pass:

      "The spectacular implosion of John Boehner’s Plan B confirms something that should have been obvious for a long time now: House conservatives simply may not be capable of playing any role in the near-term conversation over how to move the country forward and place it on a sounder fiscal and economic footing."

       "In a way, though, this last stand of sorts by conservatives — by confirming their own inability to play any meaningful or constructive part in the rest of this drama — could ultimately pave the way to a resolution."

       "Much of the commentary about what happened yesterday focuses on Boehner’s miscalculation: He hoped passing his Plan B would force the White House to move in his direction, and failed to anticipate the revolt among conservatives that would ensue. This is widely being painted as an unnecessary gamble that wasted crucial time."

       "But last night confirmed something that needed to be established: Thanks to the conservative wing of the GOP, House Republicans, on their own, simply cannot pass anything that raises tax rates one penny on an extremely tiny, and extremely rich, minority of Americans — no matter how small or how wealthy. This may mean the only way to a deal will be to reach a compromise that includes a sizable number of House Dems."

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2012/12/21/the-morning-plum-in-plan-b-implosion-house-conservatives-exit-the-conversation/

      The GOP as a party is really in chaos now.

       This quote from GOP consultant Craig Shirley sums things up neatly:

“If this was a parliamentary system, tonight’s dissent on Plan B would be seen as a vote of no confidence in Boehner,” Shirley said. “The national GOP is now simply a collection of warring tribal factions.”

       "Apparently, some Republicans voted against Plan B because they feared a Yes would open them up to a primary challenge — a vote to raises tax rates only on incomes over $1 million is apparently enough to provoke one!"

        It's not just about the fiscal cliff either. In the immediate aftermath of the their terrible night on November 6, there was some discussion of where the GOP goes from here. Would the ideologues or the true believers drive the train? What we're really seeing is there is no leadership anymore. What strikes me is how Newt Gingrich-someone who who's been out of office since 1998-is always gone to for insight into the GOP line. This demonstrates their total lack of contemporary leadership.

       It's also clear on gun control. With people like Joe Scarborough taking on his own party on gun control, this is another issue where the GOP is in trouble on. Indeed, as Sargent points out, the real problem is not packaging but policy.

       "The GOP’s problem isn’t the message. It’s the policies: A very relevant finding in the new Post poll:

A majority of Americans (53 percent) say the Republicans’ problem is that they are overly conservative and unconcerned “with the welfare of the people, particularly those in the lower and middle income levels.” By contrast, 38 percent say the bigger issue is that Republicans “need a better leader to explain and win support” for their policies.
 

      I don't think the GOP is ready to accept that yet. They still want to think it's just messaging. They still can't get that the formula they worked with starting with Nixon in 1968-and perfected by Reagan-doesn't work anymore. They want to believe it's a timeless strategy. I suspect they may go a long time in the wilderness till they get it. However, there is a bright side to all this... I'm a Democrat and look forward to much future Dem success!