Boehner is Just Running Out the Clock

     This has been my assumption for weeks and Greg Sargent again argued this after Boehner's latest antics. Yesterday Boehner rather laughably claimed Obama is "slow walking the country towards the fiscal cliff."  He demanded spending cuts from Obama:

     "Speaker John Boehner tried again to shift the fiscal cliff debate from tax rates to spending cuts, saying Tuesday that the White House has yet to “identify what spending cuts the president is willing to make as part of the ‘balanced approach’ he promised the American people.”

    “If the president doesn’t agree with our approach, he’s got an obligation to put forward a plan that can pass both chambers of Congress,” Boehner (R-Ohio) said on the House floor. “Because right now the American people have to be scratching their heads wondering, ‘When is the president going to get serious?’”

    Boehner asked: “Where are the president’s spending cuts?”

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/john-boehner-spending-cuts-where-are-obamas-cuts-84906.html#ixzz2EqZmG1NE

    Who needs to get serious? I find it hard to even see what Boehner's saying without laughing. As Sargent points out, the Democrats have already done a lot of cuts in the 2011 deals. The GOP has yet to offer anything serious in raising tax revenues-there aren't enough loopholes that effect only the wealthy.

     "As you know, Dems have already agreed to well over $1 trillion in spending cuts in 2011 — cuts Boeher himself said were significant at the time. By contrast, Republicans have not agreed to a penny in new rates. Since experts believe we can’t raise a substantial enough amount in deficit reducing revenues without hiking rates, the basic situation here is simple: One side has made far more concessions towards real deficit reduction than the other has. And the one that hasn’t made as many concessions is the one demanding still more — even though it lacks the leverage here."

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2012/12/11/john-boehner-slow-walks-the-country-towards-the-fiscal-cliff/

     Of course, Boehner is kidding. The by a 3 to 1 margin, the country disagrees with his approach to these talks. It's clear if they fail he will be held responsible for "slow walking."

     "I continue to remain puzzled about what this is supposed to accomplish. Obviously the idea is to try to blame the White House and Dems for the failure to reach a deal. But polls continue to show that Republicans are losing this PR battle badly. Yesterday’s Gallup poll found that only 26 percent of Americans approve of the GOP’s handling of the fiscal cliff talks, versus 64 percent who disapprove. For Obama the numbers are 48-44. That comes after Republicans have demanded for weeks that Dems detail spending cuts first. This would seem to suggest the current strategy is not working."

     Actually, the most popular description of Boehner's performance is "bungling" and even Republicans don't give him majority support for how he's handled it.

     "House Speaker John Boehner is getting poor reviews on his handling of the fiscal cliff negotiations, according to a poll released Wednesday, with even Republicans failing to give him majority support.Fifty-four percent of Americans disapprove of Boehner’s handling of the talks, according to an ABC/Washington Post poll."

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/poll-boehner-bungling-cliff-talks-84961.html#ixzz2EqcCq8NZ

    I also think Sargent is on the money in that this is just play-acting by Boehner. He knows he has to do a deal but is just running out the clock to satisfy the Tea Party that he's fighting hard-no matter how quixotic the fight.

    "I  continue to believe all this pantomime points to one endgame. Boehner will wait until enough Republicans come out and call for allowing a vote on extending just the middle class tax cuts — enough to allow him to capitulate and claim he had no other choice. He can tell conservatives he fought until the end and that he’s adopting the best possible course of action for the party."

     The Dems on the other hand are confident a deal is going to happen-of course,  it it doesn't then they really lose nothing as they can pass the middle class tax cuts in January-is the GOP going to refuse to vote for them then?

     Nancy Pelosi is confident of a deal "before Christmas."

      "House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday that she was “more optimistic” than some of her colleagues about reaching a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff."

      “I’m more optimistic than that,” Pelosi said on CBS’s “This Morning” when asked if a deal could be reached before Christmas. “I do think that [House Speaker John Boehner] is a well-intentioned person. He knows what the risk is. Because actually this isn’t about us, this is about the American people.”

     Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/pelosi-cliff-deal-before-christmas-84962.html#ixzz2EqdZQuuo

     Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, had said it would be difficult due to divisions within the GOP House. Boehner denies such a rift exists.

      "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Tuesday reaching a cliff deal before Christmas would be “extremely difficult” because of divisions within the House Republican leadership over whether to acquiesce to Democratic demands to raise tax rates on wealthy Americans. A Boehner spokesman denied any rift existed."

      Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/pelosi-cliff-deal-before-christmas-84962.html#ixzz2Eqe5SZdj

      However, we've seen more and more GOPers come out of the woodwork to support allowing taxes ro rise on the rich. Senator Tom Coburn went so far as to say he'd prefer to raise revenue via tax hikes.

      http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/12/more-gopers-for-tax-hikes-on-rich.html

      "The growing number of GOP defectors on taxes is causing heartburn in Republican ranks and prompting fresh fears that the party is giving President Barack Obama crucial leverage in the fiscal cliff negotiations."

      “I think it’s not helpful on anything to negotiate in public,” said Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), echoing the concerns of many in the party eager to tamp down internal dissension ahead of a high-stakes year-end deadline.

      Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/gop-tries-to-quell-dissenters-on-taxes-84947.html#ixzz2EqetyJiw

      However, some argue the public defectors actually are helpful.

      "The concerns come as the rabid anti-tax stance that has bonded Republicans for a generation is unraveling, giving way to messy factions of lawmakers who have very different prescriptions for averting the fast-approaching fiscal cliff."

      "On one side are Sens. Bob Corker of Tennessee, Tom Coburn of Oklahoma and others who say it’s time to concede higher taxes on the top 2 percent of wage earners in order to secure deep spending cuts to entitlement programs like Medicare, a top prize for the GOP. On Tuesday, Sen. Susan Collins, a Maine moderate, joined Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole’s call for Congress to quickly pass an extension of tax cuts for those who earn less than $250,000, in line with the White House’s position."

     (Also on POLITICO: GOP tries to cope with tax hike reality)

     "Privately, some top Republicans believe such comments are actually helpful — giving Boehner cover as he tries to reach a deal that includes new taxes without setting off a revolt among the rank and file."

     "The Republicans conceding ground on the tax issue aren’t making any apologies."

      “I wasn’t out there on my own,” Corker said Tuesday. “I think there are a number in our caucus that want to move beyond the revenue discussion to an entitlement reform discussion.”

      The question I have is are there enough Republicans to pass the Senate bill in the House? It seems quite likely that there are. It's Boehner who's holding it back from a vote. However, the quote above suggests Sargent is right. Boehner is just running out the clock. At the last minute he'll allow a vote.
    
      Finally, two top House Democratic tax writers think the GOP will relent on a deal-but contra Pelosi, not before Christmas.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/fiscal-cliff-deal-predicted-by-democratic-tax-writers-84855.html?hp=l1_b4