Even while Boehner's latest offer is not enough just yet, it's amazing how much he has moved over to Obama's position. It's one thing for him to accept higher brackets on people who make more than $1 million. True the President has asked for it to be in effect for those over $400,000 and I hope he stays there.
It seems that he will as the White House has just rejected Boehner's "Fiscal Cliff B."
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/white-house-rejects-boehners-fiscal-cliff-plan-b
The Democrats have also rejected it.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/12/fiscal-cliff-plan-b-boehner.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
There is some consternation from many liberals who are not happy that Obama proposed some variant of "chained CPI." Some liberals are also calling Obama's dropping of a call for an extension of the payroll tax cut a "tax hike on the middle class."
From here, HuffingtonPost was able to write a post that declared that the President's latest proposal "targets the middle class and the elderly."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/18/obama-social-security-fiscal-cliff_n_2319850.html
Listen, I don't like chained CPI either and would rather see the payroll tax cut extended-after all my meager income doing telemarketing over at Slomin's Oil will feel the pinch quite strongly from a 50% rise in the payroll tax come January.
However, we really do need to see the forest for the trees. Here's what Boehner is doing that he wasn't before. He's accepting the raise in rates. Ok, so he's at $1 million and the President is at $400,000. This is what negotiations are. I do think we should end up at $400,000-note however that Pelosi and Schumer had at one time suggested $1 million. So Boehner's already moved quite a bit.
He's also talking about getting the debt ceiling done now. That is huge. If we can get rid of the debt ceiling before 2014 that's' a huge Obama victory. While Boehner needs to come down to $400,000 he is also accepting a rise in the capital gains and dividends rates.
Here's Greg Sargent on the President's proposal:
"The big picture: With this deal Obama will have broken the GOP’s
fundamentalist opposition to raising tax rates on the rich (albeit only on
income over $400,000) something that would have been deemed very unlikely a year
ago. He will have held the line against the GOP demand for two years of Medicare
— a victory. Debt ceiling hostage taking will have been deferred for two years,
meaning it won’t get tied up in the next elections. He will have obtained
stimulus spending — on infrastructure, and in the form of an extension of
unemployment benefits — and as Paul Krugman notes, that wouldn’t happen if we go over the
cliff. (I’m told the talks have not focused on the exact sum of stimulus
spending the White House wants.) The price: The expiration of the payroll tax
cut and the cut in Social Security benefits. That’s bad, but the damage could be
limited, if the White House insists on it."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2012/12/18/the-morning-plum-should-progressives-accept-the-new-fiscal-cliff-deal/
Again I don't' love chained CPI either and some Democrats like Dick Durbin are fighting it. Still, note what's not on the table: no raise in the Medicare retirement age.
For more on Durbin see here
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2012/12/18/dick-durbin-no-cut-in-social-security-benefits/
If for now the President has backed off on the payroll tax cut he is requesting both an extension in UI benefits and more fiscal stimulus spending. Overall, Sargent says the devil is in the details regarding chained CPI:
"However, according to an official familiar with the talks, the White House
continues to insist on various ways of softening the blow of “chained CPI” that
are supported by progressive economists, though the details are still unclear.
The liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities is willing to support
“chained CPI” if it is offset with a small increase in Social Security benefits
for longtime beneficiaries and an exemption of of Supplemental Security Income,
which is geared towards the poor and disabled. And so, a lot will depend on what
the final agreement on Social Security looks like."
Overall, though the Dems are in a strong position. To get the higher rates both on income and cap gains and dividends along with taking the debt ceiling off the table would be a real victory. Many GOPers think Boehner would have been better off just passing the Senate tax bill that made the tax cuts for 98% of Americans permanent and using the debt ceiling for leverage.
One reason I think he isn't is that the political groundswell is blowing strong in the Democrats' favor. Call it what you want: it's a big mandate. And if anything, I think that the tragedy in Connecticut strengthens them further. Both on the specific issue of gun control with even Joe Scarborough admitting that the politics of gun control has changed now:
"With pressure mounting for gun regulation in the wake of the Newtown, Conn., shootings, two well-known members of the pro-gun lobby have called for a rethink. Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator for West Virginia and a National Rifle Association member, told MSNBC's "Morning Joe" program today that the tragedy had "changed the dialogue, and it should move beyond dialogue. We need action." Earlier in the program, host Joe Scarborough, a former GOP House member who "received the NRA's highest ratings" over four terms in Congress, delivered a long monologue stating that Friday's events meant "that the ideologies of my past career were no longer relevant to the future that I want, that I demand for my children. Friday changed everything."
http://now.msn.com/joe-scarborough-joe-manchin-call-for-action-on-gun-control
More evidence of a "cultural shift" on gun control:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/18/justice/connecticut-dicks-guns/index.html
I think Friday may have changed even more. As Scarborough himself said today, the whole fiscal cliff fight seems almost trivial compares with Newtown. I think this tragedy just accentuates the sense that the country wants us to get things done and solve our problems not engage in the kinds of scorched earth obstruction and impediment that the GOP has used over the last 20 years when dealing with the Dem opposition.
Add to this the fact that the GOP really got hurt by the last round of debt ceiling chicken in 2011. The impetus for November 6 was that debt ceiling fiasco. Whatever people like Norquist may think they can ransom over fights about the debt ceiling, Boehner must know that it's suicide for the GOP to force a fight over the debt ceiling every month, or 3 months, or 6 months.
The country really doesn't want anymore of this. The GOP should be careful. They may succeed in nothing accept convincing everyone that they can't' be trusted to hold positions of power at any level in government, that to get anything done we need Democrats with supermajorities at all levels.
Even the latest GOP win in Michigan over Right to Work has come at a steep price already for Rick Snyder.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-michigan-gov-snyders-popularity-tanks-after-right?ref=fpb
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