Jobless Claims Fall to Just 343,000, Retail, Consuer Spending Up

    Today we got some better economic news. In recent weeks we've had some less exciting numbers-though some of it might have been Sandy related. The higher jobless numbers was definitely Sandy.

     U.S. retail sales rose in November and jobless claims fell sharply last week, hopeful signs for an economy that appears to have slowed sharply in the fourth quarter.

     Retail sales rose 0.3 percent, rebounding from a 0.3 percent decline in October, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had expected an increase of 0.5 percent last month.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100310011

    Although the retail sales number was not as high as the 0.5 percent expected, if you take out automobiles, the estimate was met:

     "A separate measure of retail sales, which strips out automobiles, gasoline and building materials, rose a more healthy 0.5 percent. This core reading more closely follows the government's gauge of consumer spending, which is a major component of economic growth."

      Overall, there are signs consumers have rallied after a tough October:

       "The data puts consumer spending in a slightly brighter light considering growing fears the U.S. government will adopt harsh austerity measures in January, while new jobless claims fell to within a hair of their lowest since the economic recovery began and pointed to ongoing healing in the labor market. (Read More: As Global Consumers Shop Mobile, Apple Outshines Rivals)"

      "Consumers have recovered somewhat after October's drop in sales," said Joseph Trevisani, a market strategist at Worldwide Markets in Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey.

     I still think they overdo the fiscal cliff talk. I really think this is more like the Y2K threat than anything. Maybe I'm to sanguine about this. We'll see in just a few weeks.

     This was particularly reassuring with growth expected to slow considerably in the 4th quarter:

      "U.S. economic growth is expected to slow sharply in the fourth quarter to a 1.2 percent annual rate, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, down from a 2.7 percent rate during the prior three months."

      "The rise in retail overall sales was tempered by a 4 percent decline in receipts at gasoline stations, the biggest drop since December 2008. That likely reflects a fall in gasoline prices during the month, which left consumers with more money to spend on other things."

       "The Labor Department said separately that U.S. wholesale prices dropped 0.8 percent in November as gasoline prices plunged 10.1 percent, their sharpest drop since March 2009."

     I find this interesting. The rise in retail sales is said to be "tempered" by in gas station receipts caused by: a drop in gasoline prices. Yet a drop in gasoline prices is salutory in that it freeds up more income for other retail spending. So how can it be said that the rise was "tempered" by a drop in prices at the pump? Isn't it more accurate to say that it was-to some degree-facilitated  by it?

     Anyway, go U.S! We're doing better than Britain and the EU and I think President Obama has something to do with that. I think another factor is Bernanke being ahead of the curve-comparably at least. Yesterday he announced the "Evans Rule"-after Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans.

      http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2012/12/will-hillary-run-i-dont-know-but-ashley.html