In the immediate aftermath of the election the GOP itself believed that there was no way, and while there was a lot of difference of opinion within the party establishment as to what lessons were to be drawn from 2012, the one area of agreement was that they needed immigration reform, period.
This remains the view of much of the GOP establishment-everyone from Rove, to Rupert Murdoch and his WSJ editorial page, to, yes, even the Koch Brothers. However, lately there has built up a narrative among some conservatives that they actually will lose from reform, certainly from any path to citizenship which would only increase Democratic voters-looking to 'suck at the government teat.'
It's not the view of most of the GOP establishment, the only major conservative think tank player to come out against it is the Heritage Foundation and it's notorious study-that claimed reform would cost Americans 5 milllion jobs. It got so embarassing for Heritage they had to take it down.
http://reason.com/blog/2013/05/13/heritage-foundation-drops-out-of-immigra
http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2013/05/10/1997231/richwine-resigns-heritage/
Still among the Tea Party the view that they're better off not doing reform or stand to gain little in doing it has been boldly claimed. My guess is that if immigration reform fails they GOP will rightly get the blame and pay a heavy price. I have no doubt over the next few years this is true. However, the executive director of America's Voice says immigration reform advocates will punish the GOP if reform fails.
"The executive director of the pro-immigration group America's Voice vowed Thursday that ifHouse Republicans scuttle immigration reform, "we will be kicking their ass."
This remains the view of much of the GOP establishment-everyone from Rove, to Rupert Murdoch and his WSJ editorial page, to, yes, even the Koch Brothers. However, lately there has built up a narrative among some conservatives that they actually will lose from reform, certainly from any path to citizenship which would only increase Democratic voters-looking to 'suck at the government teat.'
It's not the view of most of the GOP establishment, the only major conservative think tank player to come out against it is the Heritage Foundation and it's notorious study-that claimed reform would cost Americans 5 milllion jobs. It got so embarassing for Heritage they had to take it down.
http://reason.com/blog/2013/05/13/heritage-foundation-drops-out-of-immigra
http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2013/05/10/1997231/richwine-resigns-heritage/
Still among the Tea Party the view that they're better off not doing reform or stand to gain little in doing it has been boldly claimed. My guess is that if immigration reform fails they GOP will rightly get the blame and pay a heavy price. I have no doubt over the next few years this is true. However, the executive director of America's Voice says immigration reform advocates will punish the GOP if reform fails.
"The executive director of the pro-immigration group America's Voice vowed Thursday that ifHouse Republicans scuttle immigration reform, "we will be kicking their ass."
"House Republicans either get it done or get blamed for blocking it," Frank Sharry told reporters on a conference call with other immigration reform advocates. "Whatever the excuse, it's going to be clear -- they've either passed immigration reform or they've stopped it. All of these process excuses and procedural obstacles have been put in place to give Republicans an out. They don't have an out. They either pass it or get blamed for blocking it."
I think Sharry is right, I could see it energizing many liberals and advocates during 2014. While normally, off-year elections have been Republican years, this might be different as failure to pass would energize many to vote even if they usually don't. This is only compounded by the SJC decision nullifying Section 5 of the VRA.
Add on for good measure the war ton women he GOP has only intensified since last year's election and you already see the building blocks to what could be an upset showing for the Dems in 2014.
The GOP may find that this will
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