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Sunday, August 18, 2013

Why Democrats Have to Love the Tea Party

      They seem singlemindely determined to prevent the GOP from taking back the Senate. In 2012 they certainly helped with candidates like Todd Akins, Richard Mourdock-and in 2010 the GOP may well have taken  Harry Reid's seat if it weren't that the Tea Party got Sharon Angle nominated; then of course there was Christine O'Donnell-I am not a witch-who blew a GOP opportunity against Christopher Coons in Delaware.

      Now though they have Mitch McConnell, the GOP leader in their cross hairs. Try as he might to please them, McConnell can't please them and has now drawn a Tea Party primary opponent and has gotten little support in his race from fellow GOP Senators:

      Apparently running the most obstructionist minority in years isn't enough for the Tea Party.

     "The Senate Conservatives Fund - founded by former Sen. Jim DeMint (R) and credited with making it virtually impossible for Republicans to win back the Senate - is now running ads against Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. It’s not terribly surprising in itself. But taking on the party leader in the Senate takes it to a different level. This comes on the heels of McConnell’s saying yesterday that there were some things in Obamacare that he liked."

    http://editors.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2013/08/this_seems_big_to_me.php?ref=fpblg

     So I guess we have to say God bless the Senate Conservatives Fund, they may just give Democrats insurance for keeping their majority. If McConnell weren't such a jerk-and in understanding why I call him this you just have to consider the totality of his body of work like the nasty campaign of character assassination he took against Ashley Judd but which can start with his statement in 2010 that what matters more than anything is making Obama a one term President-note what he didn't say: nothing about the economy, jobs, growth, or doing something to help voters, sort of the anti Clinton who 'felt your pain'-if he weren't such a jerk you'd almost feel sorry for him.

    Now he's been pilloried for saying he actually likes a few things in Obamacare. This 'endorsement' of Obamacare was pretty slim, saying that there were 'probably some things in it that are ok'-maybe one of those things is no more discrimination for those with preexisiting conditions...

    In this context the scorched earth opposition of the GOP is a little more understandable. According to a well sourced article in Politico on Friday the GOP elites are in full panic mode over the party's seemingly inexorable march towards Armageddon this fall-the threat of a government shutdown if Obamacare and the threat of invoking the 'Boehner Rule' on the debt ceiling-every rise in the ceiling must be accompanied by a dollar to dollar cut in other spending.

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/08/16/the-morning-plum-gop-elites-in-full-blown-panic/

   They do get that these positions are absurd and threaten to undermine the party's brand to the extent that Americans will just conclude that the party can no longer be trusted for basic governing-a very understandable conclusion watching them over the last 5 years. 

   "Republicans are in jeopardy of convincing voters they simply cannot govern. Their favorable ratings are terrible and getting worse. But there is broad concern it could go from worse to an unmitigated disaster this fall. Most urgently, according to a slew of key Republicans we interviewed, conservative GOP senators have got to give up their insistence that the party allow the government to shut down after Sept. 30 if they don’t get their way on defunding Obamacare."

    "The quixotic drive — led by Rubio, Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Mike Lee — is part of Rubio’s effort to make up with the conservative base after he was stunned by the backlash over his deal-making on immigration. Pollsters say the funding fight makes Republicans look even more obstructionist, and causes voters to worry about the effect a shutdown would have on their own finances."
     "Whit Ayres of North Star Opinion Research, who has been drilling down on this issue for the conservative public-opinion group Resurgent Republic, said: “Shutting down the government is the one way that Republicans can turn Obamacare from a political advantage to a political disadvantage in 2014.”

     Meanwhile the choice of David Camp not to run for Michigan's open Senate seat is significant hit to the GOP's hopes. Add this to the fact that the Senate Tea Party group is determined to destroy the presumptive GOP Senate leader in the next Senate and the narrative is really starting to look bad:

    "Republican chances for a Senate majority in 2015 took a bit of a hit today, with senior GOP Rep. Dave Camp announcing that he won’t run for the Michigan open seat. Whatever Camp’s chances, he was the GOP’s top choice, and with him out the chances are extremely good that Democrats will retain this seat."

    "This points to a broader, if mostly hidden, risk that the radicalization of the GOP primary electorate and many of its party actors poses for the party’s long term hopes."
     "Everyone talks about Senate seats lost to Republicans by awful candidates foisted on the GOP by the Tea Party, such as Todd Akin and Christine O’Donnell. But perhaps even more important is another Tea Party effect: the prospect of Tea Party upsets convincing strong candidates that primary elections are a hurdle they can’t surmount — leading them to decide not to run."
     "This passage contains both an important recognition and an unwitting glimpse into the broader, unacknowledged problem here. The government shutdown push has focused the attention of GOP elites, because it is probably suicidal politically for the party. At the same time, though, the unspoken premise is that the problem is only one of excessive tactics, rather than something more fundamental."
     In 2012 Missouri Democrat incumbent Senator Claire Mccaskill actually 'helped' Akin during the primary by warning that he was the most conservative candidate. McConnell's Democratic opponent Allison Grimes may consider utilizing the Mccaskill Strategy herself. Maybe President Obama should also praise the Senator for being a voice of reason-he's already gotten us some of the way there by admitting that there could be certain things in Obamacare that are ok. 
    The Dems nationally can do the same. What's becoming clearer is that the Tea Party is a turning into much more of  a feature than a bug for Dems. By accentuating the position of Republican opponents-between the rock and the hard place-the Dems can win many seats they wouldn't normally have such a great chance at. 
   All things being equal, this should be a Republican year-first and foremost it's an off year election for the in party party-the Dems have the White House. Then Republicans tend to do better in off year elections as GOP voters are usually a higher proportion of the electorate than during general elections. However, the Tea Party primary threat is making people like McConnell-though at heart a pragmatist-take out more and more untenable positions which convinces a general electorate that they're no longer fit to govern. 

   P.S. I should say the Dems apparently are already using the Mccaskil Strategy:

   "Democratic leadership has a new favorite contestant in the Kentucky Senate race—and it’s not Democratic candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes."

     "Since conservative Tea Party candidate Matt Bevin announced he would challenge Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) in the Kentucky GOP primary, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and Senate Democratic leadership have been wryly boosting Bevin on Twitter and promoting conservative criticism of McConnell."
     "DSCC deputy executive director Matt Canter has tweeted about McConnell more than 50 times since Bevin announced his candidacy on July 24—many of these tweets promoting articles or narratives that are supportive of Bevin and question McConnell’s conservative bona fides."

   http://freebeacon.com/democrats-push-tea-party-primary-challenger-to-mitch-mcconnell/

   In short, the Dem strategy should be a Tea Party challenger for every Republican across the 50 states. 

 

    

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