It's all about framing. A new poll is out today which shows a very tight race between HRC and Bernie in Iowa. The media declares it's a tight race. That's it this is 2008 all over again.
So is Iowa now a tight race? It could be. On the other hand, maybe it isn't. You can never read too much into one poll-which is what the media is doing here.
Most other Iowa polls have shown her with a much bigger lead in Iowa and currently she has a 12 point lead in RCP.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
Whether this poll is a bellwether or an outlier remains to be seen.
But again, for now it's one poll. You know what in its own way may be even more notable? This same Wall Street Journal poll shows Bernie up by just 5 points. Now this is not just an outlier. Indeed, the RCP average in NH has Bernie with less than a 5 point lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
Bernie is supposed to win NH. If he loses there it will be very tough for him to come back from as she has huge leads in the South. As DailyNewBin points out, Bernie leads one out of 50 states and the press is having a feeding frenzy.
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/
And even that one state is little more than a tossup.
So is Iowa now a tight race? It could be. On the other hand, maybe it isn't. You can never read too much into one poll-which is what the media is doing here.
Most other Iowa polls have shown her with a much bigger lead in Iowa and currently she has a 12 point lead in RCP.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html
Whether this poll is a bellwether or an outlier remains to be seen.
But again, for now it's one poll. You know what in its own way may be even more notable? This same Wall Street Journal poll shows Bernie up by just 5 points. Now this is not just an outlier. Indeed, the RCP average in NH has Bernie with less than a 5 point lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html
Bernie is supposed to win NH. If he loses there it will be very tough for him to come back from as she has huge leads in the South. As DailyNewBin points out, Bernie leads one out of 50 states and the press is having a feeding frenzy.
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/
And even that one state is little more than a tossup.
No comments:
Post a Comment