Listen, he's the favorite and I agree he's the favorite but, nevertheless, I can't help but notice that the RCP averages still just have him with a 4 point lead. This is hardly insurmountable.
Yes, Cruz is widely considered to have a great ground game-I believe that's correct. But Trump's ground game may be better than a lot of people realize-he certainly has done a lot with data retention. I have the Christmas card from Donald J. Trump to show for it-I bought a few shirts and hats from him back in October as a lark and received a very personalized looking card which tells you he is doing a pretty good job of data retention.
But I have to say this Birther thing with Cruz. Ok, you probably can dismiss it. My guess is that a legal move to keep him off the ballot would be no more successful than it was against Obama, McCain, or it ever is. This is an old US political trip-to claim your opponent isn't eligible.
I think if you really get into the weeds from the standpoint of constitutional law he's probably eligible. He is definitely an American citizen as his mother was one even if she was in Canada when she gave birth to him. Of course, some have made an issue about the claim that she had Canadian citizen at the time; again, it shouldn't matter as you can be a dual citizen. I am still a British citizen even though I'm now also an American citizen.
But then again, how many folks in the GOP base are legal scholars? There are an awful lot of moving parts as you can see from my own sketch above. And the question is not whether or not Cruz is an American citizen-he is-it's whether or not he's a 'naturally born citizen' which is what you have to be to run for President. My guess is he probably is, but the very murkiness of the question is problematic.
And-Cruz just has a lot of people who don't like him.
Everyone is trolling Cruz. Josh Marshall is.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/so-that-was-weird
Lawrence O'Donnell had, Laurence Tribe-who just happens to be Cruz as well as Obama's old law professor on his show-and Tribe agreed that the question is 'not settled law.'
So even Tribe-who most certainly is a legal scholar-is getting into the fun.
There's an old saying in politics-if you're explaining, you're losing. That's the genius of Trump: he doesn't ever explain.
But Cruz felt the pressure to explain-he released his mother's birth certificate, which suggests that this whole line of attack is hurting him.
Laura Ingraham was on Chris Wallace this morning. She's always been very high on Cruz and said that the claim that he's not eligible is a joke but it may hurt him in Iowa; just might take some of the steam out for him. Some in Iowa may react like 'What?! He was born in Canada?!!'
He also renounced his Canadian citizenship 20 months ago, which makes it sound like Cruz himself sees this fact as a point of shame.
This is the GOP base after all, where ignorance reigns.
It's true that after Obama released his long form birth certificate that pretty much shut down Birtherism as something he ever even had to respond to again. He then had an epic takedown that same week of Trump at the Washington Correspondence dinner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8TwRmX6zs4
But in a GOP primary with just a couple of weeks left and in what still could be a very close race, who's to say this whole line hasn't created just enough murkiness to allow Trump to inch ahead of him?
We've heard a lot of talk that if Trump loses in Iowa it would destroy his brand as a winner. He has smartly recently shown he understands reality and admitted that he could lose Iowa by a few points and that the media will make this the end of the world.
But I think that the reverse can be argued with a lot more justice. If Cruz does fall short in Iowa that' a major disappointment for him and could give Trump a real leg up when the two of them compete for the base in the South.
By the way, while Nate Silver has wrongly claimed Trump has been flat in NH, he now is over 30 percent in the RCP averages for the first time. The one big advantage Trump has over Cruz is that Trump can also win in less conservative more moderate states. It's true that there is a good deal of overlap between Cruz and Trump voters but it's far from total.
Trump is able to do very well in really red states but in bluer, more moderate states as well-I'd say he was the favorite in NY for instance and he recently was in Massachusetts and Vermont. Cruz is obviously a red state phenom, period. So to win he has to lap up the field in Iowa and the South, etc.
Yes, Cruz is widely considered to have a great ground game-I believe that's correct. But Trump's ground game may be better than a lot of people realize-he certainly has done a lot with data retention. I have the Christmas card from Donald J. Trump to show for it-I bought a few shirts and hats from him back in October as a lark and received a very personalized looking card which tells you he is doing a pretty good job of data retention.
But I have to say this Birther thing with Cruz. Ok, you probably can dismiss it. My guess is that a legal move to keep him off the ballot would be no more successful than it was against Obama, McCain, or it ever is. This is an old US political trip-to claim your opponent isn't eligible.
I think if you really get into the weeds from the standpoint of constitutional law he's probably eligible. He is definitely an American citizen as his mother was one even if she was in Canada when she gave birth to him. Of course, some have made an issue about the claim that she had Canadian citizen at the time; again, it shouldn't matter as you can be a dual citizen. I am still a British citizen even though I'm now also an American citizen.
But then again, how many folks in the GOP base are legal scholars? There are an awful lot of moving parts as you can see from my own sketch above. And the question is not whether or not Cruz is an American citizen-he is-it's whether or not he's a 'naturally born citizen' which is what you have to be to run for President. My guess is he probably is, but the very murkiness of the question is problematic.
And-Cruz just has a lot of people who don't like him.
Everyone is trolling Cruz. Josh Marshall is.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/so-that-was-weird
Lawrence O'Donnell had, Laurence Tribe-who just happens to be Cruz as well as Obama's old law professor on his show-and Tribe agreed that the question is 'not settled law.'
So even Tribe-who most certainly is a legal scholar-is getting into the fun.
There's an old saying in politics-if you're explaining, you're losing. That's the genius of Trump: he doesn't ever explain.
But Cruz felt the pressure to explain-he released his mother's birth certificate, which suggests that this whole line of attack is hurting him.
Laura Ingraham was on Chris Wallace this morning. She's always been very high on Cruz and said that the claim that he's not eligible is a joke but it may hurt him in Iowa; just might take some of the steam out for him. Some in Iowa may react like 'What?! He was born in Canada?!!'
He also renounced his Canadian citizenship 20 months ago, which makes it sound like Cruz himself sees this fact as a point of shame.
It's true that after Obama released his long form birth certificate that pretty much shut down Birtherism as something he ever even had to respond to again. He then had an epic takedown that same week of Trump at the Washington Correspondence dinner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8TwRmX6zs4
But in a GOP primary with just a couple of weeks left and in what still could be a very close race, who's to say this whole line hasn't created just enough murkiness to allow Trump to inch ahead of him?
We've heard a lot of talk that if Trump loses in Iowa it would destroy his brand as a winner. He has smartly recently shown he understands reality and admitted that he could lose Iowa by a few points and that the media will make this the end of the world.
But I think that the reverse can be argued with a lot more justice. If Cruz does fall short in Iowa that' a major disappointment for him and could give Trump a real leg up when the two of them compete for the base in the South.
By the way, while Nate Silver has wrongly claimed Trump has been flat in NH, he now is over 30 percent in the RCP averages for the first time. The one big advantage Trump has over Cruz is that Trump can also win in less conservative more moderate states. It's true that there is a good deal of overlap between Cruz and Trump voters but it's far from total.
Trump is able to do very well in really red states but in bluer, more moderate states as well-I'd say he was the favorite in NY for instance and he recently was in Massachusetts and Vermont. Cruz is obviously a red state phenom, period. So to win he has to lap up the field in Iowa and the South, etc.
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