I know rational expectations says that no one can beat the market long term-I think Sumner has chalked Warren Buffet to just luck. This seems to be what people mean when they say that he makes unfalsifiable statements. I mean if you say that no one can beat the market long term and someone points to someone who has and you say that's just luck then the question begs how could you possibly falsify the claim that no one can long term beat the market?
I guess I'm arrogant or foolhardy enough to always think I at least could beat the market-that as it's not logically impossible maybe it's actually a viable possibility. I have at times but true I certainly haven't yet been able to do it long term. For the latest on the market see here.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/10/what-september-nonfarm-payroll-surprise.html
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/10/ben-bernanke-cant-get-loan_3.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29
I'll be interested to see if tomorrow really has marked a bottom for the market. If it is-and for all I know it may be-it's still ironic that the fundamentals of the US economy are going to get the market bullish again as the fundamentals were always sound to begin with and the market wasn't selling off because of any proof the the economy has fallen off a cliff. The things that were worrying the market-Russia-Ukraine, weak growth in Europe, a slowdown in China-and now the Hong Kong protests what Jim Cramer calls a bear market in commodities-the weakness in oil certainly not helped out with Saudi Arabia now wanting to cut rather than raise prices-a Japan still disappointing despite Abenomics, along with a sense that although the Macro picture looks good, prices in the market may have gotten ahead of earnings-is still there.
Still, I agree there is nothing fundamental about the U.S. economy to justify the selloff we've seen-if anything maybe we are just technically oversold. We'll see what happens this week.
However, lately I've been quite unlucky in the market-ever since it started selling off a few weeks ago. Until then buying dips had been something you could count on as you have been able to since 2009. I haven't really done badly on what I've thought would happen but the timing has killed me. We'll see if this changes this week.
However, where I have had much more luck on lately is betting on the NFL something I had always said I'd never do-I just started at the start of this season. At this point after 5 weeks, I've had only 1 week in which I lost money on net and with a very solid day today, I'm now up over 100% on the year. Today all the teams I bet on actually won their games but I bet the spread and there I was 4-2 which was enough to put me up $1200 for the week .
I had 5 picks at 1 pm Eastern time-the Eagles over the Rams at home favored by 7, the Giants-I did well with my team last week so I went with them again today-over the Falcons favored by 4; the Saints over Tampa giving 10 1/2; the Steelers favored by 6 1/2 against the Jaguars.
I went to Applebees as they have these games on so you can watch them all at once. The Eagles seemed a slam dunk all day building a 34-7 lead and then giving up 21 points late and letting it get to 34-28 at the last minute. Meanwhile the Giants trailed 20-10 in the second half, the Saints blew a 13 point lead at home and the Steelers at this point were just up 10-9.
So the sure thing failed me and I didn't have any game sewed up. The Giants rallied though and scored the last 20 points of the game, the Steelers scored a TD and covered me 17-9, the Saints failed me as they went from 13-0 up to 13-24 down, they did win in overtime 37-31 but that came nowhere near covering. So that's 2-2 but the Browns actually came back from trailing 28-10 in the first half to win 29-28. Pretty amazing: my sure thing in Philly dissipated with under 5 minutes left, but the game I assumed I'd lost all day turned my way at the last minute. This put me up $600; at 4 I just took the Charges over the Jets which was the big slam dunk of the day, as the Chargers simply demolished Jets. 31-0. The good news for Jets fans, is Rex Ryan has promised to start Geno Smith again. Well, he's earned it. In truth, though, they did try Vick in the second half and he was even worse statistically than Geno.
This put me up by $1200 for the day, and I for once practiced something that is perhaps not my strongest virtue: restraint. I had strongly considered taking the Bengals over New England but I figured I should just lock in my gains for the week. After all, I am going with the Seahawks over the Redskins tomorrow so why not just do one more $600 bet so that I can end up at least $600 up for the week even in the rather unlikely chance of the Redskins covering.
The Pats have dominated the game so far tonight, making me very glad I did say when. However, at 20-3 to start the second half it's not an insurmountable lead with the Andy Dalton led Bengals.
UPDATE: The Bengals just got a big point return and then got a touchdown on the very next play so it's just 20-10. See how fast things can change in an NFL game?
The Pats clearly came out the gate with a sense of urgency, but after taking a quick 14-0 lead, the Bengal defense has actually quieted things down. If they can continue this, the Bengals still have a shot.
The Giants now being a very touch 6 game stretch-they are on the road the next two weeks at Philly and then Dallas who are both 4-1 and a game ahead of the G-Men. Then they come back home to play the Colts and then they go out to what is considered the toughest place to play-Seattle. Then the 49ers visit and then the Cowboys come in.
Very tough schedule! However, it is a chance to show if they're for real. However, we do see a road to the playoffs and even the NFC East title. They need to just split these 6 games. If they can, there is a light at the end of the tunnel as they then begin a 4 game stretch where they play at Jacksonville and then Tennessee, host the Redskins who they already decimated in week 4, then visit the Rams. If they then follow the 3-3 record in the next tough 6 games with running the table in these 4 against also rans, then they go into the final game of the season with the Eagles at home with a 10-5 record and probably with at least a chance to win the division-maybe that game will decide the division.
I think I'm reasonably conservative with my 3-3 record projection in the next 6. I think they could win 4 of 6 in which case they should be a shew in for the playoffs. A likely way it could happen is that they win 2 of the 3 games against Philly and Dallas, lose to the Colts and Seahawks and beat the Niners-who though I they won a good game against KC this week, I'm not wholly convinced of just yet.
UPDATE: Since my last UPDATE the Bengals have fumbled and bumbled themselves into a 34-10 hole. Yep, I dodged a bullet this time.
Truth is, the Colts and Seahawks are obviously very tough games but I do think the Giants may do ok against the Eagles and Cowboys. While both are 4-1, neither have a defense likely go scare Eli and company on offense. Indeed, both the 'Boys and 'Birds had a real dogfight with the Rams. The Rams new starting QB has a 96.8 QB rating in 3 games and a lot of this comes form a 34-31(OT) loss to Dallas-where they did take a 21-0 lead before bending- and a 34-28 loss today to the Eagles where they almost came all the way back from 27 down.
I think it's fair to say that the Dallas and Philly secondarys are a lot more afraid of Eli than he is of them. The Eagles are 29th against the pass, 28th in total defense, and 25th against the pass.
Actually, now that I think about it the Rams may actually be better now that Austin Davis has become the starter. However, they better bet a lot better as they have a beast of a schedule coming up where they're going to play the Niners twice, the Seahawks twice, the Cardinals twice, as well as Kansas City, San Diego, and Denver. With all that losing the Rams do, you'd think they'd be rewarded with a much easier schedule. Unfortunately they are in a very tough division. But, they are playing the AFC West this year for their AFC games: couldn't they at least get to play the AFC East?
UPDATE: Did I mention I dodged a bullet in not taking the Bengals?
I guess I'm arrogant or foolhardy enough to always think I at least could beat the market-that as it's not logically impossible maybe it's actually a viable possibility. I have at times but true I certainly haven't yet been able to do it long term. For the latest on the market see here.
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/10/what-september-nonfarm-payroll-surprise.html
http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/10/ben-bernanke-cant-get-loan_3.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29
I'll be interested to see if tomorrow really has marked a bottom for the market. If it is-and for all I know it may be-it's still ironic that the fundamentals of the US economy are going to get the market bullish again as the fundamentals were always sound to begin with and the market wasn't selling off because of any proof the the economy has fallen off a cliff. The things that were worrying the market-Russia-Ukraine, weak growth in Europe, a slowdown in China-and now the Hong Kong protests what Jim Cramer calls a bear market in commodities-the weakness in oil certainly not helped out with Saudi Arabia now wanting to cut rather than raise prices-a Japan still disappointing despite Abenomics, along with a sense that although the Macro picture looks good, prices in the market may have gotten ahead of earnings-is still there.
Still, I agree there is nothing fundamental about the U.S. economy to justify the selloff we've seen-if anything maybe we are just technically oversold. We'll see what happens this week.
However, lately I've been quite unlucky in the market-ever since it started selling off a few weeks ago. Until then buying dips had been something you could count on as you have been able to since 2009. I haven't really done badly on what I've thought would happen but the timing has killed me. We'll see if this changes this week.
However, where I have had much more luck on lately is betting on the NFL something I had always said I'd never do-I just started at the start of this season. At this point after 5 weeks, I've had only 1 week in which I lost money on net and with a very solid day today, I'm now up over 100% on the year. Today all the teams I bet on actually won their games but I bet the spread and there I was 4-2 which was enough to put me up $1200 for the week .
I had 5 picks at 1 pm Eastern time-the Eagles over the Rams at home favored by 7, the Giants-I did well with my team last week so I went with them again today-over the Falcons favored by 4; the Saints over Tampa giving 10 1/2; the Steelers favored by 6 1/2 against the Jaguars.
I went to Applebees as they have these games on so you can watch them all at once. The Eagles seemed a slam dunk all day building a 34-7 lead and then giving up 21 points late and letting it get to 34-28 at the last minute. Meanwhile the Giants trailed 20-10 in the second half, the Saints blew a 13 point lead at home and the Steelers at this point were just up 10-9.
So the sure thing failed me and I didn't have any game sewed up. The Giants rallied though and scored the last 20 points of the game, the Steelers scored a TD and covered me 17-9, the Saints failed me as they went from 13-0 up to 13-24 down, they did win in overtime 37-31 but that came nowhere near covering. So that's 2-2 but the Browns actually came back from trailing 28-10 in the first half to win 29-28. Pretty amazing: my sure thing in Philly dissipated with under 5 minutes left, but the game I assumed I'd lost all day turned my way at the last minute. This put me up $600; at 4 I just took the Charges over the Jets which was the big slam dunk of the day, as the Chargers simply demolished Jets. 31-0. The good news for Jets fans, is Rex Ryan has promised to start Geno Smith again. Well, he's earned it. In truth, though, they did try Vick in the second half and he was even worse statistically than Geno.
This put me up by $1200 for the day, and I for once practiced something that is perhaps not my strongest virtue: restraint. I had strongly considered taking the Bengals over New England but I figured I should just lock in my gains for the week. After all, I am going with the Seahawks over the Redskins tomorrow so why not just do one more $600 bet so that I can end up at least $600 up for the week even in the rather unlikely chance of the Redskins covering.
The Pats have dominated the game so far tonight, making me very glad I did say when. However, at 20-3 to start the second half it's not an insurmountable lead with the Andy Dalton led Bengals.
UPDATE: The Bengals just got a big point return and then got a touchdown on the very next play so it's just 20-10. See how fast things can change in an NFL game?
The Pats clearly came out the gate with a sense of urgency, but after taking a quick 14-0 lead, the Bengal defense has actually quieted things down. If they can continue this, the Bengals still have a shot.
The Giants now being a very touch 6 game stretch-they are on the road the next two weeks at Philly and then Dallas who are both 4-1 and a game ahead of the G-Men. Then they come back home to play the Colts and then they go out to what is considered the toughest place to play-Seattle. Then the 49ers visit and then the Cowboys come in.
Very tough schedule! However, it is a chance to show if they're for real. However, we do see a road to the playoffs and even the NFC East title. They need to just split these 6 games. If they can, there is a light at the end of the tunnel as they then begin a 4 game stretch where they play at Jacksonville and then Tennessee, host the Redskins who they already decimated in week 4, then visit the Rams. If they then follow the 3-3 record in the next tough 6 games with running the table in these 4 against also rans, then they go into the final game of the season with the Eagles at home with a 10-5 record and probably with at least a chance to win the division-maybe that game will decide the division.
I think I'm reasonably conservative with my 3-3 record projection in the next 6. I think they could win 4 of 6 in which case they should be a shew in for the playoffs. A likely way it could happen is that they win 2 of the 3 games against Philly and Dallas, lose to the Colts and Seahawks and beat the Niners-who though I they won a good game against KC this week, I'm not wholly convinced of just yet.
UPDATE: Since my last UPDATE the Bengals have fumbled and bumbled themselves into a 34-10 hole. Yep, I dodged a bullet this time.
Truth is, the Colts and Seahawks are obviously very tough games but I do think the Giants may do ok against the Eagles and Cowboys. While both are 4-1, neither have a defense likely go scare Eli and company on offense. Indeed, both the 'Boys and 'Birds had a real dogfight with the Rams. The Rams new starting QB has a 96.8 QB rating in 3 games and a lot of this comes form a 34-31(OT) loss to Dallas-where they did take a 21-0 lead before bending- and a 34-28 loss today to the Eagles where they almost came all the way back from 27 down.
I think it's fair to say that the Dallas and Philly secondarys are a lot more afraid of Eli than he is of them. The Eagles are 29th against the pass, 28th in total defense, and 25th against the pass.
Actually, now that I think about it the Rams may actually be better now that Austin Davis has become the starter. However, they better bet a lot better as they have a beast of a schedule coming up where they're going to play the Niners twice, the Seahawks twice, the Cardinals twice, as well as Kansas City, San Diego, and Denver. With all that losing the Rams do, you'd think they'd be rewarded with a much easier schedule. Unfortunately they are in a very tough division. But, they are playing the AFC West this year for their AFC games: couldn't they at least get to play the AFC East?
UPDATE: Did I mention I dodged a bullet in not taking the Bengals?
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