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Monday, May 5, 2014

EOG Resources: Ok I'm Beginning to Get the Hang of Market Timing

     Say this about Jim Cramer's Action Alerts-what I paid for him is already worth its weight in gold. I mean this position I took out today in EOG has already paid my subscription and many times over. He had recommended EOG-EOG Resources- last week.

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/12692075/1/jim-cramers-mad-money-recap-next-weeks-game-plan.html

    After reading Cramer I became intrigued and checked out a Barron piece where Goldman told its customers to load up on $100 EOG calls going into today's after the bell earnings report. I wanted to read it but they wouldn't let me-you have to subscribe; it turns out to be the best $26 dollars I ever spent. Now the article is no longer gated so you can read it-but this wasn't available without paying last night and I'm sure glad I did.

    http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111903843804579535621069870930

     I came into today thinking of this day as a buying opportunity. As Cramer-and others but he's pretty famous for saying it-says buy on weakness sell on strength. It's simple enough intellectually but it's tricky in practice as we tend to want to do the opposite. It takes a little experience trading in the market to get this straight.

    So I came into today hoping that it would be a down market to open. I already rang the register to profits worth a total of $1,400 dollars or 40 percent on WFC last week-Wells Fargo.

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/04/in-tomorrows-market-fed-not-supposed-to.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29

     My other bet-Microsoft is not working so well so far as it's falling down to $39-still I got to think it's close to the bottom and should be ready for another run at $41 now.

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/04/in-wells-fargo-and-microsoft-we-have.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29

    Then again, I also did pretty well with my C puts in April-140 percent profit.

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/04/d-day-jp-morgan-misses-estimates-market.html

     What's amazing to me is how much better I'm getting at market timing now though. I mean as I've discussed previously, I made money back in 2008 during the financial crisis-the last time I had any cash to play at all, unfortunately back then I was betting the rent money. Now I have some room to maneuver.

     I got out of my $44.50 Citi puts in the above link at virtually the perfect point that Friday as the market and C itself spiked up the rest of the day and then on Monday next week C had strong earnings and the stock soared back to $47.

     Now with WFC last Friday, I got out at the perfect moment Friday-with it at literally $49.99 I new it would be hard for it to get over $50 and stay there. This is exactly what happened as it barely touches $50-peaking at $50.01 then falling back to $49.50. I was hoping today there would be some early weakness in WFC-and EOG-so I could get into the same $49.50 May 23 call again for a decent price.

    When the market tanked at the open falling triple digits early I had my chance and got into 30 more WFC calls at only $.35 cents each-I got out my last 30 on Friday-I had already wrong the register on 30 previously-at about $.70 per call. After buying in with WFC under $49.20, the stock bounced back to finish unchanged at $49.58 increasing the value of my position from about $1,000 dollars to about $1,300. I considered getting out before the bell but I think WFC has further to run-this is the best of breed for the banks-even less argument there after JPM got whacked this morning over the Ukraine-and I think it can get to $50 again like it did Friday.   So on WFC the playbook is the same as Friday-the minute it comes close to $50 again, get out.

     However, EOG was truly a thing of beauty. Cramer, Barron's, and Goldman were all correct. After EOG dipped with the overall market to under $97, I bought 10 calls for $1,500-$1.50 each. The stock soon rallied back all the way to over $99. So even at the close I had over a 50 percent gain. However, Cramer and friends didn't let me down on this one-GS got it exactly right. There was a bang out earnings report and the stock is soaring-up $2.50 in after hours already-it may well stretch much further overnight and tomorrow.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101643898

    Yes, I've missed many calls as well, nevertheless clearly my instinct on timing is improving. So you might have done pretty well listening to Cramer, or Barron's, or Goldman. However, you might have done ok, just listening to me as well. LOL.

    P.S. I'm joking, though there is some truth in it.

    

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