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Saturday, March 1, 2014

Mark Sadowksi and the Latest Adventures of a Marxist Telemarketer

     I got to say I like what I see-lots of comments to read and reply to. Almost as many as Scott Sumner-LOL. I must say though this is my site I feel a little outnumbered. I have no less than three Market Monetarist sympathizers leaving comments-Mark, Don Geddis, and Morgan Warslter. Who's getting my back in this rumble? No one really. 

     Tom Brown, of course, is basically Switzerland in all this-I'm not knocking his style, he can often be effective with it, but he sure doesn't give me much aid and comfort. I do have Greg, of course, I was thinking I might give each of my commentors their own blog post-this one is Mark's . I don't dislike Mark-I find him a very intelligent guy, and you have to hand it to him on his analytical wonkishness. I would even say I like him though he seems to not like me. 

    In the past he labelled me 'histrionic' and it wasn't meant as praise. Now he has not for the first time . referred me both as a Marxist and suggested I'm a 'sociopath' because of my day job-telemarketing though I don't know that he did the two together in the past.

    "To be clear, I have never advocated fiscal austerity, although, as I have said, I do not see any harm with cutting the defense budget, which made up almost exactly half of the non-interest sequester cuts. And if by "kind of policies" you mean fiscal stimulus, then I don't think such policies have any effect at all on aggregate demand, and therefore I seriously doubt you or others like you would benefit from such policies."

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/03/market-monetarism-and-supply-side.html?showComment=1393729705113#c7340075072536551579

     First of all, I don't see any harm in cutting the defense budget either but this is a separate issue than the question of fiscal austerity. I think the defense budget should be cut not to cut the deficit but simply because we spend more than we need in military spending and would rather see that money employed elsewhere. There are some who see many of the things that the military does with its money as immoral-this has nothing to do with a desire for fiscal austerity. 

    As for him doubting fiscal stimulus would help, that's his opinion I have a different one. I don't see that not having fiscal stimulus-and in fact having fiscal contraction the last 3 years has benefited 'me or others like me.'

    I don't get why he's so opposed to it or any of the MMers especially as they keep preaching that fiscal policy doesn't matter that monetary policy is the be all and end all. 

    When he says he's never advocated austerity he's being somewhat obtuse. Of course he hasn't in so many words-neither  does Sumner or any of the MMers-other than Morgan Warstler. Yet that's obviously implied. Explicitly MMers don't spend a lot of time advocating austerity-I never said that they did. Implicitly this is where the argument logically leads you. When you keep claiming like this what effect do you imagine it would have on the political discussion if it's taken to hear? Here is Don Geddis:

    "It's easy to be a liberal Market Monetarist. I don't know how else to say it: fiscal policy is IRRELEVANT to controlling aggregate demand. That doesn't mean that MM requires fiscal austerity. It means that your arguments for or against austerity, have nothing to do with whether we're in a demand-side recession."

    "If your politics suggests that you want larger government, large deficits, whatever ... then by all means, go ahead. The only single thing I don't want you to use in your fiscal debate, is the Keynesian claim that we need large fiscal deficits today, in order to boost aggregate demand. MMs want you to throw away that claim."

     "But if you have other reasons for preferring larger government (during any economy, not just a recession), then by all means state your case."

    "But that's independent of Market Monetarism. MM as a macro theory is completely neutral about fiscal policy. It by no means requires fiscal austerity."

       What's clear is that if this argument were taken to heart the GOP would have a much stronger hand in budget battles-in fighting for austerity. While the MMers claim that fiscal policy doesn't matter they criticize fiscal stimulus but not fiscal contraction. 

         Here Mark just goes off the deep end:

         "As for being conservative, only a Marxist like you could even think that I am conservative, other than in the sense of thinking it desirable to conserve those policies enacted as part of the New Deal and Great Society. "

          This is just gratuitous name calling. I would like to see one quote of me saying something Marxist in any meaningful way. Honestly, when I talk to MMers they really have no idea what my own beliefs are they're so hot to try to prove the absolute correctness of their beliefs. 

          If he wants to conserve the New Deal and the Great Society then we agree-although I also want not just the New Deal's conservation but its expansion. However, since Reagan the New Deal has been under attack so conservation is the first step. However, how would I possibly know that's his agenda based on what I've seen him write in the past? He certainly doesn't sound like someone with these commtiments and quite honestly, MM certainly is in no way going to make it easier to conserve the New Deal0it will make it harder as if it were believed that there's no fiscal multiplier that would only embolden conservatives even more in their bottomless desire to gut the New Deal. 

         Here he gets-well there's no other way to put it: he becomes truly priggish here on the subject of telemarketing. 

        "...If I get them to buy something they don't wholly need or perhaps shove them a little into it, why should I feel guilty? These same people don't give a crap about my struggles and if they elected better politicians we might have more socially beneficial things for people to do than telesales..."

       "This is a chillingly honest revelation of your sociopathic tendencies, although it doesn't surprise me in the least."

       I just have to wonder about his scale of values. What I find 'chiling' and 'sociopathic' is that recently a homeless man died here in NY during a snowstorm-he froze to death. I think that this says something about our society that's rather ugly, It's not about a sociopathic individual but a sociopathic society. What did I say in my comment that he finds so chilling? I certainly didn't lie. These same people don't give a crap about me or anyone else who has been struggling.  So why should I care about them not wanting to be called by telemarketers? I remember when I mentioned my personal struggles over at Money Illusion, both Mark and Sumner pratically spit they were so full of contemptuous derision. 

      Sumner just found such a discussion 'absurd'-I mean the very idea of upsetting people who are uncomfortable with tales of those who aren't comfortable! Mark coldly told me he doesn't give a hoot about my 'life story' or something like thta. So I think if you don't like telemarketers ask yourself if you favor the kinds of economic and social policies which tends to make them proliferate. 

      I call Mark prig here as he just shows not one drop of empathy. He's very concerned about some stuck up office manager who has a 'no solicitation policy' but never thinks that those who call her do so in part because she voted for jerkoff Republicans who care not a wit for those down on their luck. I think Greg sums up this hatred of fiscal policy well on the part of MMers:

      When you say fiscal policy is irrelevant what you are really saying is that distribution of wealth is irrelevant. If our GDP rose to 20 trillion next year but only 10 guys got the income, you think that would be no different than if 100 million got the income. The only thing that matters is the NGDP number not who and how many get it is essentially what you are arguing.

     "You also think the fed can simply target that number just by buying up the earth if necessary."

     "So how does the fed make someone sell?"

 http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/02/turns-out-bernanke-doesnt-believe-in.html?showComment=1393708902046#c851978117942486918

     What you wonder is why buying up the earth isn't actually a fiscal operation. I think the key thing is political. The fiscal authorities were actually elected by the American people. What Fed independence really is about is independence from the American people. Is it just accidental that the most comprehensive Monetarist experiments were in dictatorships like Pinochet?

    P.S. I have to say that Morgan's comments on my discussion about my telemarketing adventures at least contain some empathy on his part-he tries to put himself in the other guy's shoes. Mark clearly just imagines he's better than the other guy if the guy has struggles he doesn't. 
     

30 comments:

  1. Switzerland eh? Lol... well, I guess that's fair. :D

    You've got Tom Hickey too, who occasionally pops in on your side. Also, I finally did get a response from Miles (I posted it in your Miles post). I don't know how you will react... the words he said should make you happy... but on the other hand you might be skeptical.

    And on other rare occasions there's Unlearned Econ who drops by.

    But it's true, I'm less and less committed to any one view the more I read. At this point I'd like to be able to absorb the concepts from a few schools of thought and truly understand how they relate to each other... but I'm more convinced than ever that econ is more like black magic than anything.

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  2. Regarding Sumner and supply shocks, did you read this comment from him today at Nick Rowe's site? I'll pick out a couple of quotes:

    "Indeed we just saw the transcripts of the Fed for 2008, and an adverse supply shock caused the central bank to shift AD to the left under any plausible definition of AD, not just P*Y."

    "It seems to me you can engage in a quixotic quest for a AD definition that cleanly separates AS and AD shocks, or you can sensible give up and just talk about real shocks and nominal shocks, accepting that under most central bank reaction functions (except the correct one--NGDP targeting) a supply shock will lead to central bank reactions that shift the AD curve."

    http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2014/02/keynes-gt-chapter-3.html?cid=6a00d83451688169e201a73d850c15970d#comment-6a00d83451688169e201a73d850c15970d

    Also, Sumner has said before that even a perfect monetary policy (which I presume would rapidly undo the effects of nominal shocks before they cause much damage) won't make booms and busts go away. And booms and busts are part of the business cycle I'd guess (but that's truly a guess!... because I don't know what is meant precisely by the business cycle). Also Lars Christensen said, perfect monetary policy makes RBC true, and RBC says there is such a thing as a "real business cycle" ... right? Lol... It's right there in the name! (the name is pretty much all I know about it). Of course Lars doesn't think RBC is actually true... in fact he made fun of it saying that RBCers think recessions are caused by excessive vacations.

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    1. One way to think about the business cycle is that it's what makes recessions a part of life. The business cycle means that there are ebbs and flows in the economy rather than an eternity of smooth seas. RBC essentially gives us the world prior to when we had to accept the business cycle as a fact of life.

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    2. But there may well be a difference between recessions and busts.And between booms and bubbles. Sumner and Sadowski claim there is. I think Christensen would agree with them, and probably Rowe and DeLong too. Cullen and Glasner are wary about drawing too simplistic of distinctions in that regard.

      I asked Sadowski if under ideal monetary policy, NGDP would keep on trend during a boom and bust cycle: he said that it would.

      That's an interesting view to me: it means good monetary policy should just eliminate the unnecessary junk: real consequences to nominal shocks. Why let those have real consequences?

      It won't solve all our problems, but it represents the low hanging fruit: might as well do that at the very least. I actually hope that this view of things is accurate: it means that there's low hanging fruit to be had.

      So again, I don't know if that's the proper way to look at it, but that's the idea I get after reading DeLong, Rowe, Sumner, Sadowski and Christensen on this.

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    3. ... and BTW: if it turns out that collecting the low hanging fruit requires some sort of fiscal element, then I'm OK with that too: it's just that a fiscal element is probably less likely to be "low hanging" in that it might require congress to do something, and that's about as likely as a rock springing into a song and dance number.

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    4. Seriously, it's hard to imagine congress doing anything anymore. As P.J. O'Rourke said, the GOP is the party that says that government doesn't work, and then they get elected and prove it. I actually think that is their strategy to some extent: make sure that we all understand that government is nothing but a bunch of buffoons... good for nothing a-holes who do nothing but gandstand and are allergic to actually accomplishing anything. If that is there mission, then they've achieved it! What is congress' approval rating these days? Are they still double digits or have they crossed into single digit territory now?

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    5. ... and the prospect for congress changing anytime soon is dim in my view: we are truly in an age now when representatives pick their electorate, not the other way around. We desperately need those computer drawn electoral districts!

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    6. ... imagine that we got rid of the current Fed board all together and instead just promoted each congressional representative to board member. That'd be democracy in action! Lol

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  3. "Mark clearly just imagines he's better than the other guy if the guy has struggles he doesn't. "

    Mike, you might be right about that... however Mark did seem happy to win $50 from Vincent Cate... he said something about being reduced to eating cat food otherwise. :D

    Mark, if you're reading this, you're welcome. Yes, I know you and JP did all the work, but I did a fine job as facilitator on that one, you have to admit.

    Also, just a thought, but what if the Fed were subjected to more democratic pressures. Benjamin Cole (commentator at Sumner's, Glasner's, pragcap, and guest author at Nune's and Christensen's on occasion) seems to at least partly share that sentiment wondering what the value is of keeping the Fed minutes under wraps for ANY period of time is. He thinks they should conduct meetings on CSPAN.

    However, I think it was Don Geddis that had an interesting theory regarding the board member minutes from 2008: it seems some on the board didn't really think of 2% as an inflation target so much as an upper bound, and anything they could do to get under that was by definition good.

    Well what if the Fed were more democratic? They might experience that pressure to an even greater degree. How many people out there think that low inflation is by definition a good thing? Remember Rick Perry threatening Ben Bernanke on Texas' behalf for printing too much money? Or the countless nut-job conspiracy theories out there about the Fed, etc.

    I think there's a distinct possibility that for however bad it is now, democratizing the Fed might make it even worse. It might be like putting this guy:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Ham

    in charge of our scientific research efforts. The more I learn about what absolute scientific morons our country raises, the more of an elitist I become on that subject: not in the sense of wanting to keep science for the privileged few... no exactly to opposite: I think we're in crisis mode and need to do a ton more education, but in the meantime, let's not let the drooling morons get their finger on the button. (Although, in fairness, Ham is from Australia or some such... still his fan base is WAY too big in the US in my view).

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    1. ... drooling morons with their fingers on the button: Do you recall the Bush admin?

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    2. I think the concept of Fed Indepenendence is a very undemocratic idea. It basically means it is shielded from public opinion. I read this idea as giving them cover to pursue more austere policies without any public pressure.

      The Fed didn't used to be so 'independent'-prior to Voclker and we had policy that was better for the average guy. To me why shoudn't the Fed be pressured from Congress and the President? It's not a law unto itself.

      Also the structure with all those regional governors needs to go. There are too many on the FOMC. Barney Frank had reccommended getting rid of the 5 unelected members-who are basically chosen by the banks-and it's a very good idea.

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    3. Maybe you're right Mike: but how does the Fed pursue more austere measures? You mean tight money? Shoot, maybe I'm not much of a democrat in this regard... I just can't help but have close to zero confidence in the public's ability to reason through a Fed decision. Why not just let us all vote on the policies similar to American Idol. Maybe it could be incorporated into American Idol... decide if Janet goes home after being off key, and whether or not we should still target 0% inflation? (after all, only nut job liberals could possibly think any inflation is good, right? Just use your horse sense! Don't let a bunch of fancy pointy headed intellectuals tell you what to do! Next week: should: we still continue the fraud of fiat money, or get back on the Gold standard as God intended?). I guess I'd have about as much confidence in the public's or politician's ability to think that through as if the American Idol crowd were voting on which way to twiddle the knobs at a nuclear power plant.

      I just can't help feeling like that's similar to putting Supreme Court justices up for election every two years.

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    4. ... actually, I'd be in favor of setting up an algorithm to run the Fed if possible. That would be ideal: take day to day decisions out of the hands of humans altogether. Maybe that's far from workable: I don't know. If it was, codify the algorithm into law, and then require a constitutional amendment to change it.

      I'd also be in favor of taking the decision about drawing voting districts out of the hands of humans: let an algorithm decide: codify the algorithm into law and require a constitutional amendment to change it.

      I'd also put drawing senate boundaries every 10 years into an algorithm, and have them redrawn every 10 years along with congressional boundaries. Why should Wyoming get as many senators as California? That's highly undemocratic.

      Either uncouple senate districts from states, give the states proportional senate representation, or redraw the state boundaries like this:

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/files/2013/11/electoral10-1100-1024x789.jpg

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  4. It seems to me that this idea of Fed independence goes hand and hand with something Sumner always says: 'there's no such thing as public opinion in economics.'

    Ie, independence of the Fed is a good thing as they are enlightened technocrats who know so much more what's good for the economy than the average American. I don't agree we should have democracy only in noneconomic matters which is what Sumner is implying here.

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  5. My point about Mark not understanding the struggles of others is not necessarily an assumption that he's rich, though I suspect he doesn't live paycheck to paycheck . It just seems that he's being awfully judgmental about the choices of people who need work. If they do something he doesn't like maybe he should see less pschopathy in them and more in the society that makes this necessary.

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    1. Sure, I understand your point. I just thought I'd let you know that story in case you hadn't heard it. I'm pretty sure he was exaggerating about the cat food.

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  6. I mean it's better that someone that is unemployed get a job in telemarketing than hold up a bank

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    1. ... at the very least! Lol

      Although I hear bank robbers were quite popular back in the Great Depression years... maybe if we were all voting on who should be punished during American Idol breaks... :D

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  7. Mike Sax,
    "…Now he has not for the first time . referred me both as a Marxist and suggested I'm a 'sociopath' because of my day job-telemarketing though I don't know that he did the two together in the past…"

    I suggested you are a sociopath because you said:

    "...If I get them to buy something they don't wholly need or perhaps shove them a little into it, why should I feel guilty? These same people don't give a crap about my struggles and if they elected better politicians we might have more socially beneficial things for people to do than telesales..."

    Mike Sax,
    "...While the MMers claim that fiscal policy doesn't matter they criticize fiscal stimulus but not fiscal contraction..."

    It’s not a question of criticizing, it’s a question of pointing out facts, and MM has been quite symmetric in its discussion of fiscal policy stance. For example many fiscalists have denied that there was an enormous fiscal expansion in the UK prior to the Great Recession. Similarly many fiscalists (evidently not you) deny there has been a fiscal contraction in the US the last four years based on unadjusted deficit measures or Daily Treasury statements. In both cases MM has consistently taken into account cyclical factors in measuring fiscal policy stance.

    Mike Sax:
    “…This is just gratuitous name calling. I would like to see one quote of me saying something Marxist in any meaningful way. Honestly, when I talk to MMers they really have no idea what my own beliefs are they're so hot to try to prove the absolute correctness of their beliefs…”

    Calling me a conservative is gratuitous name calling. I would like to see one quote of me saying something conservative in any meaningful way. Honestly, you really have no idea what my own beliefs are.

    Mike Sax,
    "...I remember when I mentioned my personal struggles over at Money Illusion, both Mark and Sumner pratically spit they were so full of contemptuous derision...Mark coldly told me he doesn't give a hoot about my 'life story' or something like thta...I call Mark prig here as he just shows not one drop of empathy. He's very concerned about some stuck up office manager who has a 'no solicitation policy' but never thinks that those who call her do so in part because she voted for jerkoff Republicans who care not a wit for those down on their luck..."

    Your personal life situation has no real bearing in an internet conversation about economic policy. I have no way at all of knowing if what you are saying is true or not. Furthermore you have no way of knowing what anyone else’s life situation is really like either. And this applies especially to the people you evidently feel no compunction at all about getting to do things which may not be in their own best interests.

    Mike Sax,
    "...So I think if you don't like telemarketers ask yourself if you favor the kinds of economic and social policies which tends to make them proliferate..."

    I favor NGDPLT specifically because I think it will severely reduce or even eliminate aggregate demand shocks as a cause of unemployment.

    Greg,
    "...When you say fiscal policy is irrelevant what you are really saying is that distribution of wealth is irrelevant..."

    No. When Don (or anyone) says fiscal policy is irrelevant to the task of stabilizing aggregate demand they are not saying anything at all about the other potential uses for fiscal policy.

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    1. ""...If I get them to buy something they don't wholly need or perhaps shove them a little into it, why should I feel guilty? These same people don't give a crap about my struggles and if they elected better politicians we might have more socially beneficial things for people to do than telesales."

      Ok, I don't see why that makes me a sociopath. You dont think that a better economy would probably leave us with fewer telemarketers? I got into it as it was an easier bar to entry and I couldn't get a job in my own chosen field-accounting.

      I seriously do think that people who hate telemarkerters ought to do more soul searching. I also do think it's notable that telermarketers are usually people on a lower income and social level than those they're calling. So I admit I don't feel too bad.

      Does that make me a sociopath? I think on the scale of evil, it's pretty forgivanble. Other things seem much worse to me-like what happened to that homeless man here in NY. I guess we have a different sense of morality but I think people ought to think about it.

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  8. "...When you keep claiming like this what effect do you imagine it would have on the political discussion if it's taken to hear[t]?...What's clear is that if this argument were taken to heart the GOP would have a much stronger hand in budget battles-in fighting for austerity...He certainly doesn't sound like someone with these commtiments and quite honestly, MM certainly is in no way going to make it easier to conserve the New Deal0it will make it harder as if it were believed that there's no fiscal multiplier that would only embolden conservatives even more in their bottomless desire to gut the New Deal..."

    Paul Krugman has termed the insistence by virtually the entire political and media establishment that budget deficits were the most important and urgent economic problem “fiscal fever”. In late December he pointed to evidence that this fever has broken:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/30/opinion/krugman-fiscal-fever-breaks.html

    I have read similar arguments elsewhere and I do think there is evidence that this is true. Here are the four reasons Krugman gives for why he thinks fiscal fever has broken:

    “…What changed? I’d suggest that at least four things happened to discredit deficit-cutting ideology.

    First, the political premise behind “centrism” — that moderate Republicans would be willing to meet Democrats halfway in a Grand Bargain combining tax hikes and spending cuts — became untenable. There are no moderate Republicans. To the extent that there are debates between the Tea Party and non-Tea Party wings of the G.O.P., they’re about political strategy, not policy substance.

    Second, a combination of rising tax receipts and falling spending has caused federal borrowing to plunge. This is actually a bad thing, because premature deficit-cutting damages our still-weak economy — in fact, we’d probably be close to full employment now but for the unprecedented fiscal austerity of the past three years. But a falling deficit has undermined the scare tactics so central to the “centrist” cause. Even longer-term projections of federal debt no longer look at all alarming.

    Speaking of scare tactics, 2013 was the year journalists and the public finally grew weary of the boys who cried wolf. There was a time when audiences listened raptly to forecasts of fiscal doom — for example, when Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, co-chairmen of Mr. Obama’s debt commission, warned that a severe fiscal crisis was likely within two years. But that was almost three years ago.

    Finally, over the course of 2013 the intellectual case for debt panic collapsed. Normally, technical debates among economists have relatively little impact on the political world, because politicians can almost always find experts — or, in many cases, “experts” — to tell them what they want to hear. But what happened in the year behind us may have been an exception…”

    (continued)

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    1. (continued)

      So in short:
      1) The political premise behind centrism became untenable.
      2) Rising receipts and falling spending has caused the deficit to plunge.
      3) Journalists and the public grew weary about warnings of a severe fiscal crisis.
      4) The intellectual case for debt panic (e.g. Reinhart and Rogoff) collapsed.

      The first reason is strictly political. It was the realization by the Democrats that there really are no moderate Republicans to bargain with. The second reason is attributable to a combination of fiscal policy and economic recovery. Between 2009 and 2013 the general government fiscal deficit fell by about 7% of GDP of which about 4% is due to tax increases and spending cuts and 3% is due to a smaller output gap. The third reason is probably attributable to the fact that the press and public now realize that the warnings of fiscal doom are totally without merit. The fourth reason came about because other economists starting subjecting the data to better and more careful analysis.

      Now, with those four reasons in mind what effect would the realization that the effect of fiscal policy on aggregate demand could be completely offset by monetary policy have? Or more succinctly, what would the realization that monetary policy always has the ability to set the level of NGDP have on fiscal fever?

      It would make no difference at all in terms of the immoderacy of the Republican Party. They never believed that the use of fiscal or monetary policy to regulate aggregate demand was desirable for the simple reason they believe that supply generates its own demand. On the other hand there may be centrist Democrats who would be less willing to bargain with Republicans if they truly believed monetary policy could increase revenue by closing the output gap, and thus reduce the deficit without raising taxes and cutting spending. And in fact reducing the output gap *has* contributed significantly to the reduction of the deficit, which means the whole imperative for reducing the deficit by means of increasing taxes and cutting spending alone should be seriously called into question. And finally, even if there were any truth to the idea that public debt reduces real growth, which there evidently isn’t, the realization that monetary policy can reduce the debt to GDP ratio simply by closing the NGDP gap renders the immediate problem of an elevated public debt ratio somewhat moot, and reduces one of the primary motivations for fiscal fever.

      In short, the realization that monetary policy always has the ability to set the level of NGDP shifts the responsibility for our apparent immediate problems with fiscal solvency away from the need for fiscal policymakers to raise taxes and cut spending, towards the need for monetary policymakers to stabilize aggregate demand about the full employment level and thus ensure fiscal deficits stay low and public debt ratios remain sustainable.

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    2. "Paul Krugman has termed the insistence by virtually the entire political and media establishment that budget deficits were the most important and urgent economic problem “fiscal fever”. In late December he pointed to evidence that this fever has broken:"

      On the matter of the fiscal multiplier Krugman would agree with me not Sumner.

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    3. I actually found these comments of yours interesting and food for thought but I keep getting confused-where krugman's quote is done and your comments start.

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    4. Ok, I think I figured it out. I find this interesting:

      "Now, with those four reasons in mind what effect would the realization that the effect of fiscal policy on aggregate demand could be completely offset by monetary policy have? Or more succinctly, what would the realization that monetary policy always has the ability to set the level of NGDP have on fiscal fever?"

      "It would make no difference at all in terms of the immoderacy of the Republican Party. They never believed that the use of fiscal or monetary policy to regulate aggregate demand was desirable for the simple reason they believe that supply generates its own demand. On the other hand there may be centrist Democrats who would be less willing to bargain with Republicans if they truly believed monetary policy could increase revenue by closing the output gap, and thus reduce the deficit without raising taxes and cutting spending. And in fact reducing the output gap *has* contributed significantly to the reduction of the deficit, which means the whole imperative for reducing the deficit by means of increasing taxes and cutting spending alone should be seriously called into question. And finally, even if there were any truth to the idea that public debt reduces real growth, which there evidently isn’t, the realization that monetary policy can reduce the debt to GDP ratio simply by closing the NGDP gap renders the immediate problem of an elevated public debt ratio somewhat moot, and reduces one of the primary motivations for fiscal fever."

      "In short, the realization that monetary policy always has the ability to set the level of NGDP shifts the responsibility for our apparent immediate problems with fiscal solvency away from the need for fiscal policymakers to raise taxes and cut spending, towards the need for monetary policymakers to stabilize aggregate demand about the full employment level and thus ensure fiscal deficits stay low and public debt ratios remain sustainable."

      I find this at least plausbile-which doesn't mean it would necessarily go down this way but that it's at least imaginable that it could.

      Maybe Democrats would react this way. My quess is the GOP repsonse would be 'Eureka! Sumner has proven once and for all that we don't need deficits even during a ercession. Now there's nor reason not to get to making 'tough choices' on what we can afford and what needs to be cut. Let's start with Congressman Ryan's very sensible plan to reform Medicare.'

      Still I will give you this is an interesting alternative way of looking at it, I got to think about it awhile and digest it.

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  9. "Calling me a conservative is gratuitous name calling. I would like to see one quote of me saying something conservative in any meaningful way. Honestly, you really have no idea what my own beliefs are."

    So you were engaging in tit for tat. You called me a Marxist not because there was any basis but because I called you a conservative. At best then we're in a sandbox.

    I cal you a conservative as I think that's the implications of Market Monetarism. Sumner too calls himself a conservative as did Milton Freidman. The goal-as Sumner has again and again put it-is to 'kill Keynesianism', 'drive a stake through the heart of Keynesianism', etc, etc.

    I think this has been the whole reason for being for conservative economics since Keynes-to 'crush the infamous thing' and I think that Monetarism of any sort is very much part of this 'white guard rebellion.'

    Monetarism is shrewd in that it accepts the reality of AD shortfalls-most other conservative schools don't-Austrian, RBC, Supply Side-however it defines AD as being purely nominal.

    You say you support the conservation of the New Deal and if that's true then we have the same political agenda. Yet everything you do in economics with 'holdiing the coats' of the Monetarists, et. al. is against this agenda. I know you claim that all you want to say is that AD should only be handled by the monetary authority but that's a very big concession to make to conservatives who want to destroy the New Deal and therefore I'm certainly not going to drink the Koolaid until I'm pretty clear for the basis of it.

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    1. What you should understand about me Mark is that I'm a skeptic of MM. I've never even said I'm sure it's wrong. I can see that the argument for it is plausbile. However, I see that the argument against it is also plausible and since I see no one else asking skeptical questions I kind of see this as my job to keep the conversation honest at least.

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    2. Liberal is to conservative as Marxist is to ______________?

      I say "reactionary."

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  10. "Your personal life situation has no real bearing in an internet conversation about economic policy. I have no way at all of knowing if what you are saying is true or not. Furthermore you have no way of knowing what anyone else’s life situation is really like either. And this applies especially to the people you evidently feel no compunction at all about getting to do things which may not be in their own best interests."

    I don't agree it's of no interest. It may not be to your taste, however others may feel it gives the topic life and breadth. Morgan Warstler seems not to have your view. I mean there's a reason why I'm passionate about these discussions and there's a reason I got into economics. You may not find it releveant-others do. True you can never have absolute proof of the truth of what someone may be saying-though that's true in 'real life' as well.

    I use 'scare quotes as in this day and age, the difference between real life and the merely 'make believe' life of the Internet if fuzzier and fuzzier. As I understand it, now a full 25% of married couples met online initially.

    My athpproach is not just of a bloodless academic economist. This is probably while some like Sumner find my style offputting-I actually think my own 'gut feelings' matter in a disucssion. I don't agree that all matters in economics is models like Tony Yates or Stephen Williamson.

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/12/tony-yates-inside-mind-of-your-average.html

    First and foremost, more than an economist, I'm a philosopher. So I tend to think that beyond the quibbles of various narrow specialists, there is the connection of the big ideas and fields. A philosopher is not intereted in any partiuclar discipline of knolwedge but knowledge as such and the way in that the particular disciplines actually are connected.

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  11. Speaking of 'intuition' I'd say that a big part of why you trust or don't trust someone is intuitive-not just the bloodless weighing of facts.

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