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Friday, February 21, 2014

Supply Side Liberals: a Contradiction in Terms?

     I tend to think so. I like Miles Kimball, and think he's a nice guy personally-most Internet econ bloggers are. Sumner is the exception-even he's often a nice guy, just not to me, and not when you say anything 'mind numbingly stupid'-ie, Keynesian.

     http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=12472

     When I had the link to the post that showed that Sumner's goal is actually to create a RBC world Tom and others felt this wasn't what he was saying. I wonder if Tom can give me a good argument that this post doesn't prove Scott hates Keynesianism-I know, I'm taking him out of context, he doesn't hate Keynesianism as such just it's 'talk.'

     Tom was also wondering what a supply side liberal is and my response wasn't too flattering: I concluded that a 'supply side liberal' is just someone who tries to make himself more sympathetic by calling himself a 'liberal.'  Here was Tom's response to this:

     Actually I don't have a strong feeling about it since I'm not really too clear on what is meant by "supply-side" other than I associate that with the Reagan admin, trickle down econ, etc. I was more trying to feel out the level of self contradiction that you feel is contained in that description.

  What does "supply sider" mean to you?

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/02/assuming-we-can-should-we-try-to-end.html?showComment=1393003641981#c8832137156011611068

     I think I actually gave about as good an answer to this question as I've ever done-often I can be just a little bit polemical-in case you haven't noticed. Maybe this is why I like Krugman-he too is always criticized for just calling someone an idiot without explaining why exactly. The trouble is that someone like Krugman knows his stuff so well that it gets boring having to explain everything in the detail required for those who don't know the stuff at all. Often I don't give so much detail either-I can be rather 'terse.' So here is what supply sider means to me:

    "Someone who believes that only the supply side matters in terms of the economy's performance. A Supply Sider in the pejorative sense means someone who doesn't think the demand side matters."

    "In theory you could think both matter. Sumner for instance-and this is certainly not unique to him but is the believe of mainstream macro-ie, Neoclassical Macro as a hole-thinks that demand matters for the short term but that for the long term-'trend output growth'-the supply side is how you could possibly raise this trend."

   "When I use it pejoratively I have in mind someone who tells us that the problem in the economy isn't demand-so no stimulus will help, just supply side-'structural reforms' which usually mean things like cutting taxes for the rich-corporate, the capital gains rate, the top marginal rate, etc.-as well as deregulation, cracking down on unions-to make firms more 'competitive' in the global economy-and cutting government spending-ie, fiscal austerity."
   
     The trick is to be clear that when I and other liberals use the term SSer in a pejorative sense it doesn't mean just someone who thinks the supply side matters at all. It means someone who basically denies the demand side exists at all, or most importantly offers up SS remedies to a DS problem.

     The Reaganites were just a really egregious example of this-though I give a lot of respect to a SS theorist like Jude Wanniski who was pretty shrewd. He didn't deny demand side effects but argued that they're less important than supply side effects and that in fact the real difference is that SSers see both but Keynesians deny the SS. 

       In many ways I see SSers as related to Pre Keynesian Macro-of course there was no Macro before Keynes just Micro. So I see SSers as those who want to re-enshrine Micro on top or the pyramid it has rightly been supplanted from. 

     Now to me, none of these policies I mentioned under 'supply side' policies-busting unions, a low minimum wage, etc-are what most liberals are about.

   So what makes Miles a liberal? He calls himself one. Ok, technically he claims to care about the poor-but he thinks they can eat electronic money and lines of credit through the Federal Reserve. I'm just a little skeptical of this.On the question of Miles' idea of all electronic money as a panacea for the Zero Bound and also an end of inflation we had an interesting discussion-mostly about the idea of ending inflation. I really wanted to know even if we grant that doing this would end inflation, why would we want to do this? I have real reservations about this. What Tom says here confirms for me my reservations. 

     "Imagine what your instinct would tell you if the government announced that you had ten days to turn in all your cash because we were going fully electronic, and then within a year the government announced a new 0% inflation target and at the same time your bank announced that you'd be "earning" -2% on your deposit... and not only that, but every other bank had a similar rate: there was no escape!"

      http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/02/assuming-we-can-should-we-try-to-end.html

     In reality, inflation wouldn't so much end as a cost of living as it would no longer be called inflation but instead a negative deposit rate. 

    P.S. Yes, Sumner's right I'm not economist as I think my own personal intuitions and instincts are relevant in an economic discussion. Just because a theory or model totally contradicts what I know from experience or my understanding of human nature I should ignore this-who are you going to believe Tony Yates and Stephen Williamson or your lying eyes?

   http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/12/tony-yates-inside-mind-of-your-average.html

   http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/01/how-you-know-when-youre-reading.html

   http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/12/economics-intuition-and-praising-with.html
    

14 comments:

  1. Mike, have you read this part of Miles' blog?

    http://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/23959666073/what-is-a-supply-side-liberal

    As to your assertion that no macro existed before Keynes, that strikes me as a bold statement!! I'm going to look a few things up right now in real time: my first thought is all the stuff I've ever read at Glasner's: about Hawtrey and others that preceeded Keynes... and even going WAY back to John Stuart Mill, Say and Marx... OK, let's see what Wikipedia has to say:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_macroeconomic_thought

    OK, I think you're wrong ... but you're not as wrong as I thought:

    "Modern macroeconomics can be said to have begun with Keynes and the publication of his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money in 1936"

    I didn't know that! I knew that book was very influential, but I've never heard that before. Interesting.

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    1. How about the last sentence on Miles' page I linked to above?:

      "...tax distortions are serious AND redistribution is valuable. That makes me a supply-side liberal"

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    2. I'm not impressed until I hear how he actually plans to redistribute. If the sole way he plans to do this is lines of credit through the Fed I'm not impressed

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    3. I don't know how you still think I'm wrong at all after reading Wiki. It's not so much a bold statement as the truth-prior to Keynes we didn't have aggregates it was just methodological invidiualism.

      Macro was the birth of aggregates which Keynes started. You know the very statistics used by economists-GDP, etc. is Keynesian right? Even Milton Friedman admitted that.

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    4. ... perhaps what I should have written is "If there is such a thing as non-modern macro, then Wikipedia appears to contradict Mike" :D

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    5. BTW, I just went ahead and asked Miles if by redistribution he means "lines of credit through the Fed." ... but it went to spam. Hopefully he'll fish it out. I gave him a link back to here.

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    6. Hey Mike, Miles responded:

      "No, when I say "redistribution is valuable," I mean that if we could do it without bad side effects, taking money from the rich and giving it to the poor would be a good thing."

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  2. Krugman just wrote a few posts at least related to the discussion here.

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/02/21/hearsay-economics-2/?_php=true&_type=blogs&module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body&_r=0

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/02/21/structural-reform-is-the-last-refuge-of-scoundrels/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs&region=Body

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    1. The hearsay one references an article by Glasner that I helped inspire him to write (he mentions me in the piece actually: Glasner that is, not Krugman)

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  3. Tom if you don't think Macro started with Keynes when did it start? How do you differentiate Macro from Micro?

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  4. Mike, I took them at their word: "Modern" macro started with Keynes, but it seems there was some fooling around before that time in trying to explain the business cycle, etc. My history on the subject isn't good, maybe for all practical purposes you are right. If you define it in terms of when the concept of aggregate demand appeared, etc.

    Still, that's interesting to me: I didn't know that Keynes was the first to come up with the concept of aggregate demand. Very interesting! (Clearly I've never read any of those old timers in the original... otherwise I know this stuff, right?)

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  5. I think you can make a good argument that "supply-side liberal" is a term that applies well to most Democrats over the last few decades.

    As to the most recent appearance of self-proclaimed SSLs among bloggers and such , I suspect much of it represents a "brand-in-waiting" that Republicans will claim as their new , new thing , just in case the Tea Party brand completely implodes , which seems a distinct possibility.

    For the 2016 Republican platform , I expect to see some bold populist proposals , aka bribes to voters , similar to Bush's child tax credit , which won women voters over , big time. They would be displaying their supply-side liberal brand , just long enough to get elected. All of this will catch the Dems completely off-guard , as always.

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    1. Hey Anon,

      I think you are right. Virtually all in govt, Dems and Thugs, are neoliberal supply siders. I think the relationship between neoliberalism and supply side econ is pretty tight. Its the fear of high govt debts that drives neoliberal econ policy, so everything gets run through the CB, avoiding deficits and debt.

      Interestingly, to me anyway, I think most of the supply siders want to see less nominal levels of debt paying much more interest. If the 16 trillion of debt were cut by 2/3 but interest rates were tripled (leaving the costs of the debt exactly the same) the supply siders would be ecstatic. This is part of what Sumner means by quantity and not price when he talks about monetary policy.

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    2. SS is part of Neoliberalism. I think Sumner would certainly be estatic in that scenario.

      Here I was talking about the defintion of SS not which party is SS-it's more Republican but no question the Dems since Reagan have thought they needed to pick up large chunks of the NL playbook as Clinton did n the 80s-he accepted the imperative of balancing the budget, etc.

      If anything there's reason ton think the Dems have become a little less NL recently-hope at least. Obama just dropped the idea of COLA for social security and he's pushing things like raising the minimum wage. So maybe the Dems are going to be a little more liberal-rather than NL-in the next few years. Again, so I hope anyway.

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