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Thursday, February 7, 2013

What Nick Rowe Does at 6:00 PM

    There are many better things he could be doing. However, he instead reads and leaves comments over at Diary of a Republican Hater. You got to love him for that. Sorry I couldn't resist. Some of my recent posts have led to some pretty interesting and intense discussions in the comments section, in particular, this piece about "cash mysticism."

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/02/do-we-need-banks-and-phystical-cash.html?showComment=1360218187763#c4986681425841401035

    Mind you it's not clear what was resolved about 'bank mysticism' other than that nobody admits to having it. Here were the comments by Nick that inspired my title:

    " It's 6.00pm and I'm tired and drained after dealing with a load of Alleged Instructional Offences."

    "Every year I teach 330 students intro economics. They (and the taxpayer) pay me good money to do that. They have a good claim on my time. I give them my time, and try to explain things (like elasticity) to them. But I expect them to read the textbook too. You can see where I'm going with this thought."

     "I should be doing other things."

     http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/02/do-we-need-banks-and-phystical-cash.html?showComment=1360218187763#c4986681425841401035

      Nick you know I love you. In fairness he also did also weigh in with some great comments in a discussion with Tom Brown. Those quotes above weren't the whole story.

      Tom-who's incisive comments are always appreciated-had a great response to Nick's response. Nick then had a great response to that response where he said:

      "Tom: thanks for your polite response to my slightly less than polite comment."

      I appreciated it too as I had considered a response as well that was a "slightly less than polite comment.

      In all seriousness, while I take Nick's point, I would like to push back a little to his point that he teaches this stuff all day to students from whom he's paid. Isn't there a case to be made, however, to argue that Nick as an economist is part of a breed of what has been called "public intellectuals" or perhaps "civil servants" or "public servants?" Maybe I'm not using the exact phrase I want here but  don't economists as social scientists maybe owe society a little more than those in most other professions? If you're a carpenter I have no right to expect you to do work on my house after hours free of charge.

      However, don't social scientists owe society a little more, as privileged members of their society who have benefited disproportionately from it's fruits? Don't get me wrong, I don't mean they don't have a right to life as a private person-and can "do other things" at 6 in the evening!

     However, considering the quite large amount of authority we ascribe to them and their knowledge shouldn't they try to engage us more than telling us to go home and read a textbook? Again, I'm asking. I agree with Nick that if you read Keen you should be willing to read those he criticizes on their own terms.

    Whoever it is that Nick has in mind when he talks about "Someone who has taken the time to read Steve Keen's book, but is too scared to read any standard intro text for fear it might indoctrinate him....? Does not compute." it isn't me. I'm currently in the middle of a-if I say so myself-rather ambitious undertaking, I'm reading "Rational Expectations and Econometrics" edited by none other than Robert Lucas and Tom Sargent. If that doesn't show a willingness to listen on their terms nothing will.

   Nick may well be right that it would benefit us to read a first year textbook. Nevertheless, what's unusual in this request is that it's a discussion of issues that effect us all. These are social issues as well. Usually when we discuss political and social issues, we assume that you have an opinion regardless of what you have or haven't read.

   In Macro, the mainstream guys tell you that before they will even converse with you-go read a textbook.

   It's different is all. There are issues that effect us and our societies. Yet our opinion doesn't matter unless we've read a certain textbook.

    In fairness to Nick-and the other Market Monetarists-they in many ways bring economics much more to the man in the street than we've ever seen before. IN many ways this is a Golden Age of economics in terms of the level of participation of the man in the street-it's a like the old Salon's Circa 2013.

     Nick is very engaged and does bring a lot of knowledge to many as do the other MMers and other econ guys. Whatever you want to say about Sumner, I was barely aware of monetary policy until coming across him.

     I am fully willing to listen to both sides. However, a textbook is a pretty dry way to learn anything. From what I understand, many of the econ students don't read that much of the textbook. What's more let's look at comments made by UnlearningEcon-a guy who, at the least, actually has read the textbooks.  I had made this comment on a previous post:

      My vantage point is similar to Tom's in that I'm an interested layman. All the mathematical symbols are another language to me-though I find I'm starting to follow some of it easier-still have a long way to go.

     Often I'll read an argument form someone like Sumner that intuitively I feel is wrong but I lack the theoretical firepower to show why exactly. Sumner can therefore dismiss it as just being ignorant of econ or "public finance" or whatever.

     Unlearning is therefore a good resource. In general you just have to be bi-dimensional in reading both heterodox and mainstream econ. As long as the mainstream is Neoclassical you have to read Neoclassical stuff so you can even criticize it in an informed way. Snarky comments over at New Economic Perspectives may feel satisfying but at the end of the day have you furthered understanding? That's the question that counts.
        
      http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/02/mainstream-vs-heterdox-economic-ideas.html

     This is what he had to say about the situation:

     
     Thanks for the kind words!

     "This is exactly the problem I observed and the gap I tried to fill in the blogosphere. Economists talk in terms of their theories - none moreso than Sumner - so it can be difficult to converse with them if you don't really know it. Economic models can sometimes feel like a black box - I'd be willing to bet that a substantial proportion of undergraduates who can solve IS/LM problems don't really know or care what IS/LM is about."

      "Certain economists revel in this, as they think they have 'mastered' the discipline and therefore proven themselves. But in reality it's a massive problem, and employers have complained about the complete lack of real world, jargon free knowledge they find in their economics graduates. It only serves to strengthen both the beliefs of economists that they are oppressed mathematical superiors that nobody understands but everyone hates, along with the heterodox contention that they are lost in largely meaningless models and, while book smart, lack a good sense of what's important in science."

       "BTW, there is table of contents of all of my posts on DE here:

        http://jrm-research.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/a-year-ago-i-read-steve-keen-debunking.html

        I know Nick doesn't like the use of terms like "heterodox" and "establishment" or "orthodox":
    
        "Funnily enough, my "The supply of money is demand-determined" post was very unorthodox. Orthodox New Keynesian economists, and some monetarists, and most central bank economists, indeed most economists, would totally disagree with what I said there. It's much better to stop seeing economics through that orthodox/heterodox dichotomy. It doesn't work."

         but I do think the way that Keen and Unlearning use it has meaning.

          I guess one simple way to figure out if you're an establishment econ guy is this: if you want tell them to read the textbook, you're establishment. This doesn't make you a bad person or wrong even. Maybe you're right. But that's not a bad rule of thumb.

          More broadly, I think the mainstream econ world of today is for better or worse Neoclassical. The term isn't an insult as such. The school goes back to 1871 with Walaras, Menger, and Jevons founding the schools in their respective countries.

          There are certain ideas that the Neo school has: equilbirium, perfect competition, a downward sloping demand curve.

          There are differences among the different economists, some very major. Yet at the end of the day, everyone from Krugman to Sumner to even Bob Murphy would agree with much of it.

          I don't see either the heterodox guys or the mainstream guys as being all bad. I think that the mainstream guys need to try being a little less condescending-I think for the most part Nick isn't at all but quite the opposite, and you have to love David Glasner who is about as snark free as you could want.

           I think Scott is little more "flappable" but still he does devote lots of time and energy in bringing ideas to us that we previously had little exposure to.

          Yet I think that the heterodox guys are often full of unhelpful snark and cant themselves. Some seem to think that they ruder and more abrupt you are in denouncing anything you think is wrong, the more brilliant you must be. Their attitude can definitely rankle. I still love to think of that guy over at Sumner who declared some big pronouncement on how the modern monetary world works and then finished it off with 'and how do I know this? I work at a friggin bank!'

          While I said that I do think that the Market Monetarists are broadly speaking Neoclassical like most mainstream economists-Glasner has no problem admitting this, but most MMers want to feel that they are fighting against the establishment-they have been part of a real flowering in economics here on the blogosphere-though of course people like Stephen Williamson sniff at the blogs even as he himself writes one.

          My guess is that what we've entered is a new age of economics that will be characterized by a good deal of flux for sometime. The Economist did a piece back in late 2011 about new heterodox schools and listed MM, MMT, and Internet Austrianism.  

           Which school will "win?" My guess is it won't be clear for awhile. Different ideas from the different schools may all contribute different ideas. I think MMT may see some success in the coming years on the way to correctly understand the budget-the importance of deficit spending.

           Maybe-for arguments sake-thanks to Sumner in coming years economists will come to see NGDP to be more important than GDP.

           Then you have the more empirical work of many of the younger economists-they basically just put aside the endless theoretical wars and simply seek to observe economics empirically. Meanwhile maybe Noah Smith will become a prototype of the economist in future years where they will have more of a foundation in Physics. Recall Unlearning's point that many students have no knowledge of anything outside their specialty in econ today.

            At some point in the future a new consensus in economics might form. It won't be as earth shattering as Keynes writing GT or Lucas in the 70s. It will likely be evolutionary rather than revolutionary and not be driven solely by just one person or idea.

    

    


      

   

34 comments:

  1. Mike, thanks for the post. I have confidence that there are smart people on all sides of these debates.. not that some aren't wrong, because I'm sure that's the case in many instances. But I'm always trying to resolve the differences in world views between these different camps. I'm wondering if in some cases the disagreement arises from looking at things differently, and assigning causation to highly correlated events in different directions. OK, enough philosophy... as an example, I did a quick search to see what Sumner thought of the "balance sheet recession" idea... I was pretty sure he was going to be against it (and I was right), but I found a nice (old) post by David Beckworth:

    http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2011/01/do-we-really-have-balance-sheet.html

    Where he describes how he believed, and then came not to believe in the BS recession. Both Rowe and Sumner chime in there.

    The interesting thing about it to me is that I can imagine the "loan-creates deposits" crowd (of which I'm a member) getting in there and screaming at David "loanable funds is BS!!! The borrowers are paying back money created out of thin air!... not to lenders! All that debt repayment doesn't go to lenders really, it's just shrinking bank balance sheets!"

    And there's something to that. But in the article you link to above, wherein I was asking Rowe (via my simple example of buying a house when no money exists on any of the entities balance sheets to start off with) ... and asking "who's the intermediary? Nobody had money to start with!" Rowe pointed out that the house could have been transferred from y to x by x issuing an IOU to y (y would presumably charge interest too). And thus in that sense the bank was an intermediary.

    Similarly in the BS recession: say it was completely caused by a run up in house prices. You could claim that the banks were just intermediaries between buyers and sellers of the houses. So why aren't the sellers spending that money? That's where Beckworth seems to put the emphasis now. However it's not quite that simple (to me!)... he seems to imply that the flow of debt repayments plus massive amounts of interest (many times the principal) is going to the sellers... when that's clearly not the case. It would be if sellers had directly issued the mortgages to the buyers. Those payments are going to the intermediary: the bank.

    OK, I'm in danger or writing something really stupid here because I'm just writing and thinking off the cuff.. but do you see where I'm going with this? I'm wondering if there isn't room, to some extent, for both views... yes the banks were just intermediaries, but the flow of principal+interest is going to them now... the sellers long ago got their funds, and perhaps already implemented their planned spending or investment with it. The principal at this point is just shrinking the bank balance sheet, but the interest isn't...

    Perhaps monetary policy can be used to induce these parties (banks and sellers) to spend in constructive ways. It's not clear to me.

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  2. BTW, regarding the "physical cash mysticism" business... Rowe and "dtoh" (at Sumner's site) already chimed in ... still waiting for a definitive answer from Glasner. It's interesting to me though that Sumner conceded that dtoh's way of looking at things might be more "marketable." This is a case of interpreting cause and effect differently... because in dtoh's view the arrow of causation runs the other way with regard to "physical cash"... rather than being a cause of increased AD, it's an effect. Thus dtoh doesn't need to resort to "hot potatoes" in his explanation. This is much more intellectually satisfying to me since any theory relying on the existence of paper money doesn't pass my gut check. It'll be interesting to see if Sumner actually incorporates or adopts dtoh's explanations. If he does, then "physical cash mysticism" would be out with him too. Very much interested in Glasner's response too, since so far what he's written has the arrow of causation going opposite to that of dtoh, thus making paper money important (I think! If I'm reading him right). Honestly I think what Glasner said is that it's base money (MB) that's important, but with IOR > 0 the electronic reserve part of that is removed from the hot potato equation.

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  3. Hey Tom

    Im curious as to why Nick would claim the nature of "banks as intermediary" as he did? If they are simply the settling place of transactions (which they arent) then there is no need to remove them from the models. They are already not there. The fact is banks create money and extract money form the system. They are not simply middle men who connect me as a buyer with a seller. If thats all they do they are wayyyyyy overpaid. We could do it electronically via some public utility.

    I thought his answer was poor.

    Most of their models do try and view banks as simple places where savers lend to borrowers.... which is also false as you know.

    They simply dont want to understand or they just want to be high paid apologists FOR modern banks and their rapacious activities. One or the other.

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  4. Yes, I see your concerns. I'll give the economists the benefit of the doubt and assume they're not apologists. But I don't think it's the case that they "don't want to understand" either... I'm going to assume they have the best of intentions... even if they are wrong! :^)

    Here's my summary of Nick's point: Credit worthy people's desire to take out loans at a fixed interest rate so they can buy stuff does not determine the stock of bank-created money because interest rates are not fixed in the long term: they are determined by the difference between the target inflation rate and the true inflation rate (the inflation rate "error signal".. thinking in terms here of a big feedback control system).

    I'm not fully with him on that. I'd say that perhaps credit worthy people's desire to take out loans so they can buy stuff and the inflation rate (or anticipated inflation rate) are two correlated values, but not perfectly correlated. Do I have any reason for saying that? No. That's just my intuition.

    If I'm correct then there's a degree of independence between desire and interest rates, which says that it's more accurate to state that both INFLUENCE the stock of bank-created money.

    So let's take Nick up on his offer to simplify further and get rid of ALL commercial banks (and keep my other simplifications): Now the CB has complete control over not only the full yield curve (interest rates at all maturities) but the stock of money as well. We can throw in that there's no taxes, gov bonds or gov spending and that the exact inflation rate is known precisely at all times (it's a noise free, zero delay continuous time signal) and that the CB controls the full yield curve in real time in response to the inflation rate "error signal." I don't think it makes sense to give the CB control over the stock of money in this case actually (say the total stock of money in and out of circulation), since they would then lose control over the full yield curve, wouldn't they? If the CB ran out of money, but people still wanted to borrow more, they've lost control of the interest rate, right?

    Now, under these circumstances, can the CB simultaneously keep the inflation rate on target and control the stock of money in circulation simply by manipulating the yield curve? If someone were to answer "yes" then that says that people's desire to take on debt is COMPLETELY determined by the yield curve and the inflation rate, doesn't it? Thus if there's a marginal increase in desire to take on more debt, this is met with an adjustment of the yield curve to counteract it exactly? OK, but then what happens to the rate of inflation? Isn't it P = M*V/Y? What about V and Y?... is the CB controlling those through the yield curve as well?

    How can these three things:

    1. People's desire to take on debt
    2. The yield curve
    3. The inflation rate

    Only have two degrees of freedom? That just seems wrong.

    Perhaps these are simple questions for the professional economist to answer... but not me!

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  5. " I'll give the economists the benefit of the doubt and assume they're not apologists. But I don't think it's the case that they "don't want to understand" either... I'm going to assume they have the best of intentions... even if they are wrong! :^)"

    I think your on the right track with your approach, Tom. I think it makes sense not to assume some sordid motives that can't really be proved and don't really explain anything anyway.

    No less a Neoclassical critic than Steve Keen himself aruges that you can't impugn ormotives-they are sincere and are not doing this for simple graft or vulgar "interest" like their in the pay of the banks.

    My assumption is that for the most part assuming "vulgar interests'-being in the pay of some nefarious interests or other-is usually not what drives things but rather ideology. I guess on the highest level Keynes is right-it's about ideas.

    While I am certainly a skeptic I do think we should make a good faith effort to understand where they're coming from-as you clearly do strive for.

    Indeed, even if you think they're totally wrong, it makes sense to assume their good faith. Speculatiing over nefarious motives is only a distraction.

    I do think that we-as in "we' "liberals", "progressives", "Keynesians", or "MMTers"-are basically right.

    However it's like I wrote here:

    " Often I'll read an argument form someone like Sumner that intuitively I feel is wrong but I lack the theoretical firepower to show why exactly. Sumner can therefore dismiss it as just being ignorant of econ or "public finance" or whatever."

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/02/mainstream-vs-heterdox-economic-ideas.html

    Being right isn't enough. We have to be able to make the case theoretically as well.

    Greg, don't get me wrong. I agree with you about a lot. I totally agree with everything you wrote here:

    "We have had privatization gone wild and frankly its undoing our society. Having private prison systems that seek investors and look to states to "guarantee" a level of occupancy to protect their returns??? I see that as nothing but sick and totally fucked up. The incentives are becoming perverted in too many areas."


    "The investments that need to be made are not just on local scales. Revamping our energy grid, improving our public transportation systems and health systems are not projects for a few smart individuals in private investment areas, these require the scale of govt investment we put into the Manhattan project and rural electrification of the 30s 40s, in my view. Make the investment, screw the returns. The returns will be "real " not financial profit."

    http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2013/02/do-we-need-banks-and-phystical-cash.html

    I'm not even sure I disagree with you on very much, some of what you say I'm more not sure about than disagree-simply don't know.

    Still, this is why I like Cullen: I desire to really know how the monetary world works. I have plenty of my own views and opinions. But positive knowledge is also important

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  6. Mike, thanks for the link to Unlearned Economics... I'd visited his site long ago, but I didn't realize all the good stuff on there! I'm very impressed that he went through Keen's book and made a whole series of posts on it, exploring the criticisms etc. He seems to really know a lot about economics and the history of economic thought. (I'm assuming Unlearned is a him, but I actually don't know. Do you?)

    BTW, what do you think of my assertion above (based on nothing more than intuition really) that the stock of money is probably INFLUENCED by BOTH the inflation rate target (assuming the CB is targeting inflation rates) AND the desire of people to borrow, but it's not absolutely determined by either: either separately or in combination. I wonder if Rowe would agree? I really can't tell from what he's written.

    BTW, I noticed Glasner has another post up debunking the money multiplier.

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  7. Yeah Tom, Unlearning-it's a him-is great. He's read the same textbooks Rowe, Krugman, Sumner, et. al have read-as has Keen.

    I'm not sure the answer to your question of which effects the stock of money, whether it's both inflation and the desire of people to borrow. It's a good question that I want to explore more.

    Glasner is among the Neoclassical economists about as openminded as they come.

    I will say this though-Krugman's a good guy. Don't let your understanding be shaped too much by that one "Flashing Neon sign" piece.

    Whatever he's supposed to be guility of-like belief in the money multiplier-is believed by the rest of them too.

    IN his book Keen, admitted that Krugman is about as rebellious as you'll find within th eschool.

    Of codurse Nick doesn't like the terms "mainstream" and "orthodox" but the real dividing line is Neoclassical on the one hand and heterodox on the other-and NIck is basically in the Neoclassical schhol.

    If someone tells you to read a textbook they probably are. This doesn't mean that I don't like Nick, and that he isn't a very smart guy who can teach you a hell of a lot.

    I appreciate your seaching mind on this Tom. I feel that we're on the same page there-the key is to understand things propoerly and not just throw around snark.

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  8. I mean read the Neon piece and Keen may have been right about what he wrote but don't let that be the only thing you know about Krugman.

    Not saying it is, but if you don't-you very may well already do so-try to read Krugman whenever you can. He's a great writer. His level of concisiion on difficult complex topics that can be made intelligble for a layman audience is something to behold. Very smart guy with a lot of knowledge. I'm very grateful he's out there.

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  9. I'm not a Krugman hater... I do read him!

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  10. Cool. I figured you do-just making sure. Keen can be a bit extravagant in his denunciations

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  11. Hey Tom let me ask you this. In you I get to conduct an actual survey-as you're an actual Diary of a REpublican Hater reader! LOL

    I know your thing is economics. Do you read much of my political stuff? I'm just curious how much different readers read of my political stuff vs. my economic stuff.

    Or is there a lot of compartmentalization where many just read econ or politics but not both.

    Greg I'm pretty sure you read both-right?

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    Replies
    1. Honestly, I haven't read as much political stuff. It does look intriguing, and I'm interested in politics, and I have read some of them. So mark me down as 70% economics 30% politics at this point. You're "Limbaugh is right" article did catch my eye and I read that one. Keep up the good work!

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    2. Historically I've been a mixed bag politically. I can even remember Nixon and Watergate when I was a little kid. I think my Dad was a Nixon fan... but can remember his profile done in tape on the cover of Newsweek... probably before my feet would touch the ground when I sat on the couch.

      After a brief dalliance w/ the Dems in college, I was even a Republican for about 14 years... right up until we invaded Iraq. I couldn't believe we were doing that and would have been surprised if we HAD found WMDs there. I'll never vote for someone whom I can't bear to hear attempt to speak again!!! The neo-cons became the personification of evil for me, and I couldn't believe that they'd captured all of right-wing politics and media. I was very pleased to see their downfall... even if it was just temporary... and then the Tea-Party came along!!

      Now I'm about as true blue as they get... even though I am an assault weapon owner (to me, it's just a toy... a very dangerous toy. I trust myself, but I don't know how I feel about the rest of you having access to those things!). In fact if Obama is a "Marxist" then I guess I'm at least one of those! My departure from the GOP came for two reasons:

      1) The GOP moved away from me

      2) I started paying more attention

      Technically I did return to the GOP last year though ... because I wanted to vote for the least unqualified person in their primary. I think ALL of us should re-register as Republicans for the same reason!!! What a rabble they had! Huntsman and Romney were the only two that even seemed semi-qualified (Oh, plus Buddy Roemer and I suppose Gary Johnston... though I'm a skeptic of libertarianism in general). I actually was frightened of that crew they put up. I'd feel a LOT better if it was LIKELY that both parties would offer up a reasonable candidate. I'd like to have an actual choice again!


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    3. Thanks Tom. I was just curious how many people read just econ or politics and how many read boht.

      I do think the country is on the right track with Obama re-elected.

      However, what I appreciate about you is your econ analysis-I want to understand this stuff properly!

      Interesting that you own an assulat weapon. I guess it just seems like we keep having these mass shootings and something has to be done about it. And while there are responsible people out there we can't let them get in the hands of peoplel like that guy in Newtown.

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    4. Here you go! I knew I'd seen this as a tyke!

      http://media-cache-ec5.pinterest.com/upload/108367934755018101_EcjQ3IzA_b.jpg

      1973... I was 7 years old. I'm shocked that I remember it was "Newsweek" too!

      There was even a corny joke then: "Q: What's behind the watergate? A: The Millhouse!"

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    5. Nice cover. Have you ever read that blowhard Major Freedom-he's some long winded hyper Rothbardian who used to leave these real long posts at the Money Illusion. Now he seems to stay mostly over at Bob Murphy.

      He and LOrd Keynes got into a comments war at Bob's recently. It's kind of funny.

      http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2013/02/dean-baker-is-not-very-creative.html#comment-57447

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    6. Assault weapons: totally agree. I'm not an NRA fan. Like I say, they are toys to me... I keep them locked up (I'm terrified a kid will get into them) and I keep a bat under the bed for self defense.

      Really there's no good reason to have them... but like many boys I was intrigued with guns as a kid. I grew up in the middle of the Mojave desert. No-one else in my family had any interest... except my half-brother (22 years older than me). He'd come up to the house with a paper shopping bag full of handguns, and then leave them there for me to play with until he came back for another visit! Crazy! I can't imagine parents letting their kids do that today. "Mom, can we stop at the gun store so I can buy some .357 ammo?... Ric said I could play with his Colt Python he left here." "OK, but you've got to use your allowance money for that!"

      My Dad bought me a Mini-14 when I was in Jr. High! No kidding! I liked it because it looked military, took a detachable high capacity magazine, and fired M-16 ammo!. The kid next door got one too (we were just two houses, with nothing else around). Anyway, we used to have a lot of fun blasting away... right in our backyards!....

      One thing that disturbs me about the anti-gun crowd is that they somehow got off on a tangent about "military features." What makes assault weapons dangerous is the ability to accept a high capacity detachable magazine. That's it! pistol grips, threaded barrels, collapsible stocks, bayonet lugs, flash hiders... none of that stuff make a bit of difference! If you do focus on one thing, it should be the high cap mags... and the ability of the weapons to accept them. If people are into all that other military style stuff... so be it... I don't think it makes a whit of difference safety wise.

      When CA outlawed them I got a couple more to grandfather them in before the ban kicked in (later as an adult). I certainly don't NEED to have them.... and I only drag them out once a year if that... usually because a friend wants to try it out. It's amusing how riled up folks get about protecting their their dangerous toys!

      So for selfish reasons I hope they aren't banned, or if they are that mine are again grandfathered in, but I can totally understand the other side! In fact, if nothing else I think we should have to pay a special tax and buy liability insurance (plus the national background check and close the gun show loophole, etc., and unhandcuff the ATF). I think that's where even if I was an NRA member I'd be upset... they're SO inflexible... I think they maybe lose sight of what's actually important to non-crazy law abiding citizens in their ranks!

      In fact I think Obama should have taken Wayne LaPierre up on his proposal: He said the NRA would support armed guards in schools.... so Obama should have put that to the test and proposed a new tax on assault weapon ammunition, assault weapons, and high capacity magazine to pay for that! That would have been fun to watch!

      However, I can also understand the resentment that someone in Kansas must feel to have to have a national ban when the problem seems like it's happening in other states. Perhaps an outright ban should be up to the states.

      I do feel a little guilty though... I don't like to advertize to people that I have them. It's like being a fan of prostitutes or something during a syphilis outbreak.

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    7. Major Freedom... yes, I have. I usually steer clear though based on his handle. That just screams libertarian/Austrian/Dogmatic. But I'll take a look.

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    8. Ha... funny, I get the gist. The only time I ever spent much time over there was when David Graeber commented on Murphy's review... not of his book, but the interviews he did about the book! Murphy didn't show up for the 1st round of comments, but to his credit, he did collect all Graeber's comments and publish them as a cohesive whole in a subsequent post, to which he then responded. I thought Murphy recovered nicely from his 1st post actually. Graeber though left such an extensive set of comments you hardly had to read his book when he was done!

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  12. Mike

    I do read both. Im more inclined to comment on the econ stuff but I read most everything you write.

    Feel a need to further explain a comment I made earlier. When I said, "they dont want to understand or ...." , Im just pointing to the fact that the mechanics of banking and loan making have been hashed out by many. Nick and Scott simply want to ignore certain facts about banks. Like banks dont control the level of lending....ON THE UPSIDE. They can always say no and decrease the level of credit but they have NO WAY to increase the level of credit extension on their own. That requires people seeking credit. This includes the CB .... unless it just does helicopter drops which is......... fiscal policy. If its not a LOAN its not a bank activity.

    Scott and Nick hold their beliefs in a religious manner and cannot be persuaded. Its like getting a Catholic priest to become an atheist. They are blind to certain facts that could easily be ascertained but they dont even know they are blind. They have no interest in understanding a world where the CB cant make people increase their borrowing (without engaging in fiscal activity)because to them its a fantasy land. Its really true that you cant borrow your way out of a debt crisis and you cant keep lending your way to increased profit. Your lending eventually has to be paid back(with interest) in order to be profitable.

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  13. Thanks for taking my informal survey Greg. I thnk you're right about them not open to changing their views on this.

    Thing is though, their views are the domiannt econ views for now. So it will take time to hash it all out.

    My guess is that if we are to have the mainstream move beyond the Neoclassical toolbox-equilibrium-including "partial equilbrium"-EMH, rational espectations and perfect competition it will haappen in a evolutionary way where many different things will drive it.

    It's not like it used to be where someone like Keynes or even Lucas' counterrevolutionary project in the 70s can do it all himself.

    There's so much more heterogeneity in economics today. I think that MMT-and Cullen's MR-have a part to play but also the younger breed of econ guys like Noah Smith-who has a background in physics.

    The younger economists more interested in empirical work than debates over theory will be anotherh part of it.

    As some point we'll start to see a new consensus take shape.

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  14. For all that I think that Sumner's MMers may be part of it too. Sumner may be onto something by focusing more on NGDP than GDP. Any thoughts about this Tom?

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  15. Mike, perhaps... but the big part of MM that I still don't understand at all is what they refer to (I think) as the "transmission mechanism"... so suppose they can target NGDP just like they say... how does that actually raise GDP? I know I've seen reference to a "multiplier effect" for monetary stimulus, perhaps that's it.

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  16. No they have no transmission mechanism. I don't mean they're right about any of thta. Just that the guage of NGDP might be an important guage to focus on in the future-the aggregate spending in the ecoonmy.

    I'm not sure that;s the case but it seems pluasible-GDP+inflation

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    1. The thing is, GDP as it is currently reported, IS nominal! We dont report a real number (number of units sold say) we report number of units x price. Its the price that is important and becomes "the" number. This obsession with NGDP implies that we currently arent reporting NGDP. Now, it might be that the fed does not target it per se, but that is certainly the metric they look at to determine if the economy is moving in the direction they wish. So the only way the fed can directly affect prices of things which contribute to GDP in our economy (which are newly created output, not secondary or used items) is to actually buy those things themselves. If they want new house prices to rise, they need to buy new houses (or give the money to someone and tell them to buy new houses). If they want new car prices to rise same thing. Thing is if they actually engage in this activity, which our congress has currently expressly forbidden, they will be conducting fiscal policy.

      As Sumner and Rowe see it fiscal policy conducted by CB is monetary policy. They just want to call it a different name cuz they dont like fiscal.

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    2. So GDP is already NGDP? Because there are diferent numbers out there-one callled GDP the other NGDP..

      No doubt they just don't want anything that can be called fiscal policy. Yet if you saw that quote I left here of Sumner last night, there he goes again.

      If the Fed simply targeted NGDP-simly said 'that's our target'-it would have such a great effect the Fed would actually have to do a lot less than it is currently doing.

      "Geoff, Under NGDPLT the Fed would buy much less than today."

      http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=19266#comment-226273

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    3. The one thing that seemed like it could be advantagous about targeting NGDP is the reason Krugman gave-it might make higher inlfation more politically acceptable.

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    4. What Im saying is is that GDP is reported as a number that isnt necessarily inflation adjusted. When a company reports its sales numbers they tell what the nominal level of sales was, they say "We sold 50,000$ worth of new widgets last month". They dont just say "we sold 5000 widgets" and leave it to the people who report GDP to devise the $ value. The whole notion of nominal is flawed, I think, the way monetarists use it. AFAICT there is no good reason to distinguish. All transactions are made nominally, the conversion to real, using some measure of inflation, involves a changing measurement of inflation. Look at how the official inflation measures have been modified over the years to exclude certain goods that were included at an earlier time. Im just saying I think its unnecessary to target NGDP, just target GDP. Or stop calling our released numbers GDP and simply call them NGDP. It appears to me to be a solution looking for a problem.

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  17. You got me Mike! I really have nothing intelligent to say about using NGDP as a gauge.

    You're right... I saw no "transmission effect" but I did see "multiplier effect" references.

    Regarding the way I mis-read you before, I went back to this quote from dtoh when I asked him if there was something he was uncertain about wrt MM:

    "It not clear 100% clear to me how NGDP growth breaks down between RGDP growth and inflation."

    I recall reading that and thinking "yes, that really hasn't been covered, has it."

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  18. Anyway that's the kind of analysis I haven't seen where someone discusses whether or not it's a good gauge.

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  19. Think about it this way Tom. We're in a recession-say 2008.

    Is our goal higher NGDP? Forget about how we get there. Sumner is wrong in that he makes it a choice-either you do monetary stimulus which he deems good or you do fiscal which he deems bad.

    According to him the reason is becasue fiscal stimulus is relaly just a costly form of monetary stimulus.

    Like it was Lucas-Krugman criticized him back in 2009-who said that if the government pays X amount of dollars to build a bridge, then the only benefit to the economy is the money printed to pay for it, not the bridge itself.

    And then according to Sumner and company, fiscal spending like the bridge increase our debt which is held to be a very bad thing and then, of course, he presumes a kind of Ricardian Equivalance where at some point taxes will have to go up to pay for it.

    All this I'm very skeptical of and I think the MMTers-Fulwiler, Mosler, not to mention Cullen-can point to the fallcies in this well.

    But if you don't argue against fiscal stimulus, maybe NGDP is not a bad guage to use? It's a question much more than an assertion.

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  20. INteresting analysis on gun control as an owner of assault weapons by the way. I may just use some of your opinions in a future post about gun control.

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    1. Sure... be my guest! BTW, though my memories of that time are good ... looking back I wish I'd spent my time in other pursuits... for one thing, the invincibility of youth led me to damage my hearing and get tinnitus (ringing in the ears).

      I guess it was a matter of making lemonade out of lemons. We didn't have a cultural hub there, but we had lots of empty BLM real estate that was hard to damage with gas powered model planes, cars, home-make fireworks, cannons, rockets, etc. I guess I'm lucky I still have my fingers and toes! (and eyes!)

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  21. Speaking of Sumer, here he goes again:

    "Geoff, Under NGDPLT the Fed would buy much less than today."

    http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=19266#comment-226273

    That shows the tranmission mechanism is all "confidence" that the Fed will hit it's target

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