The Endgame in Fiscal Fight According to Dems and Repubs

     It seems that the key is that the GOP wants Obama and the Dems to own entitlement cuts. Obama has to propose them first. If that happens then the GOP will give on taxes. Actually the endgame for both Republican and Democratic aides asked anonymously:

     "So what’s the endgame in the fiscal fight? Ron Fournier asks White House and GOP aidesto be candid about where they really see this battle going, and gets some revealing answers:

White House aides: The president keeps the channels of communication open to GOP lawmakers, a process that began over a high-cholesterol dinner last week. House and Senate pass disparate budgets and send them to a conference committee. A bipartisan group of senators, including those bending Obama’s ear, strike a deal. The Senate approves it, putting enormous pressure on the GOP-controlled House. That pressure is, effectively, political cover: Enough Republicans feel safe enough to cross party lines and join Democrats on a deal.

GOP House aides: This week’s opening bids from Ryan and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Patty Murray are strategically distasteful. Obama offers a budget in April that hints at serious entitlement reform. The president’s approval ratings continue to drop, putting pressure on Democrats to cut spending deeper than they would like, in order to protect the rest of the White House agenda. That allows a small but significant number of GOP lawmakers to back new taxes couched as reform.

The good news is that top GOP aides, when promised anonymity, are willing to talk about raising taxes a second time (they would spin it as broader tax reform) — but only if Democrats move much further on spending cuts and entitlements.

     "Careful readers will note something important here: The endgames envisioned by bothsides — Republicans included — require the GOP to accept the need to give on revenues in order to get entitlement cuts. It’s good to see it admitted forthrightly that the only conceivable way to a deal, as I’ve been arguing, is for Republicans to concede this point. But the way this is couched is revealing, and demonstrates another overlooked reason compromise is so hard: Republicans say they want entitlement cuts, but they want Dems to own them."

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/03/13/republicans-say-they-want-entitlement-cuts-but-they-want-dems-to-own-them/

    Basically the GOP wants entitlement cuts only if the Democrats get the political blame for them. This is something the White House must remain mindful of:

    "It’s true that Paul Ryan just rolled out a budget yesterday that deeply slashes entitlements, and it’s true that he’ll get savagely attacked by Dems for it. But that plan is of course going nowhere. For Republicans the real action in terms of how entitlement cuts will be used politically will turn on what, if anything, actually passes. Remember, Ryan rolled out similar plans to voucherize Medicare two years in a row — and that didn’t stop Republicans from attacking Dems over the Medicare cuts that actually passed into law as part of Obamacare."

    "If you doubt that Republicans don’t really want to have their fingerprints on the entitlement cuts they say they want, just check out this nugget from today’s big Politico piece, which explains why some Republicans may prefer the sequester to any compromise to avert it:

The prevailing view among House Republicans is that they have finally won the cuts they spent years fighting for and see little reason to tick off senior voters by cutting entitlements while also ticking off the base with new taxes. In truth, many Republicans aren’t very motivated themselves to start messing with entitlements if they don’t have to.

     "This is what all the nonsense you keep hearing from Republicans about whether Obama’s outreach is “serious” or “genuine” is really about. When Republicans say they’re “skeptical” that his outreach will amount to any “real,” as hey’re doing right now, what they really mean is that they won’t be happy until they see him propose entitlement cuts in a way that will give the President and Democrats — and not Republicans — ownership of them."

    At the end of the day maybe as unpleasant as the sequester is it's preferable to entitlement cuts? Again, with the oversight the GOP itself has talked about giving the President this may be the best of all worlds. Certainly the Dems can't let the GOP get away with proposing a budget like Ryan proposed yesterday and yet the Dems getting the blame on cutting entitlements.