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Thursday, October 29, 2015

Where Jeb Lost it Last Night

It's universally accepted at this point that he bombed.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/insiders-bush-bombed-215324

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/10/jeb_bush_suffered_another_crushing_defeat_in_the_cnbc_debate_republican.html

Nate Silver, who's very fastidious about not buying into a narrative too quickly is saying this may be it for Jeb.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-cnbc-republican-debate/

Ok, so as we agree he lost, the next question is why he lost or when exactly it is that he lost. I have been watching Morning Joe this morning-not usually a guy I want to start my morning with but an important bellwether today.

I think he's actually spot on in his analysis. Rubio didn't so much win the debate as Jeb lost it. I think he's right about when Jeb let it get away from himself.

I had thought he did a pretty good job of going after Rubio on his Senate absenteeism. Some conservative pundits are now saying that Jeb was wrong to even bring it up. I think it is a legitimate question.

If he doesn't have time for his current job-and as some have noted, seems to hate his Senate job-how do we know the same thing wouldn't happen to him on his desired next job: POTUS?

I wasn't that bowled over by Rubio's response either: Well if not doing my job in the Senate was good enough for John McCain it's good enough for me and it was good enough for you too. You're just doing this now because someone told you it would help you. 

As Joe notes, at this point Jeb simply backs down. He says nothing more. This was a mistake. If he every had a chance last night-and I don't know that he did-it was there. He simply has to push back there.

Trump would have. Carson, Ted Cruz, Christie, Fiorina, most anyone  else on that stage would have. Anyone serious about winning the job would have. Jeb didn't. I think Jeb himself gives away the game here in something he said to Dana Bash..

"When pressed by Bash about whether other candidates onstage outperformed him, Bush interjected."

"I'm running for president of the United States. I'm running with heart. I'm not a performer. If they're looking for an entertainer-in-chief, I'm probably not your guy."

http://www.businessinsider.com/jeb-bush-cnbc-debate-2015-10

 He thinks he's above running for President. It's a sense of Bush entitlement.

His father had the same problem in 1992 when he was caught checking his watch. Noblesse Oblige

And there I think lies the problem. He feels above the process. This always came through with Poppy Bush as well. He doesn't like to think of himself as begging for votes. But that's the job. Before you get to govern you have to campaign. 
His brother turned out to be the smart brother. W always had more political savvy than this even though this is admittedly a bad year for the GOP with so many wildeyed candidates.

UPDATE: I should add that a big part of why I think Jeb failed to push back was the reaction of the audience to Rubio-it cheered him wildly. My sense is that the fix may have been in from the onset and that Rubio was the guy the establishment audience wanted to shine.

This sense might have further intimidated Jeb. 



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