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Wednesday, December 24, 2014

The Obama Bounce? Why the GOP is so Frustrated

     One can understand it. If they weren't overall such a nasty bunch I'd almost feel sorry for them. It's the whole idea of political capital. Paul Waldman has a post on Obama's coming bounce in the polls. 

     "President Obama’s approval ratings are about to start rising. In fact, they already have — just a couple of points here and there, showing up so far in some polls but not in others — but unless something unexpected happens, I can all but guarantee you that the trend will continue. The reason is the accretion of good news about the economy: the best quarterly growth in a decade, the Dow reaching an all-time highconsumer confidence higher than at any point since 2007, job growth strong, gas prices low. As Matt O’Brien wrote yesterday in a bit of (acknowledged) hyperbole, “This isn’t a blip. It’s a boom.”

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/12/24/how-good-economic-news-will-change-how-we-talk-about-obama/

      It's true that they already have as I've noted. 

      http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/12/obamas-recovering-poll-numbers.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DiaryOfARepublicanHater+%28Diary+of+a+Republican+Hater%29

       What really must drive the GOP crazy though is the idea that Obama has political capital as Waldman argues-according to him driven largely by the improving economy. 

       "There’s a kind of hidden scorecard that frames the media’s discussion of any new issue or controversy, one that tracks who’s up and who’s down. It gives rise to weird ideas such as “political capital,” a resource that nobody can define, yet some figures are supposed to possess and others are supposed to lack. When the economy is good, the president gets a few extra marks on that scorecard. Journalists and commentators, always interested in answering the “Why?” question, begin exploring what he’s doing right and why his opponents can’t do better. That exploration changes the tone of coverage significantly; suddenly everyone sees all kinds of positive stories about the president, while just a short time ago all the news about him was bad. As that filters down through the population, it can end up pushing his approval higher (again, even if only by a bit), which continues to feed the cycle."

       "Even if you could argue that it’s all built on vapor, it can end up affecting the decisions political actors make. The White House becomes a bit more confident and may take more policy risks. The opposition gets a bit more reluctant to force confrontations and may let some things slide."
      "This must drive them crazy as they are the ones who were supposed to have political capital, after Obama's 'November shellacking' in which all those Republicans won by explicitly running against him where even he admitted that his polices were on the ballot. The day after the election they were so confident that they now had political capital. This is not how it has worked out though. The GOP won the election but there's no question that Obama has won since then."
     What's more, his team had planned to win this post-election stretch for months. 
       "The midterms are done, and Obama feels that he doesn't have to worry about being the driving factor in any other Democrat’s election. He has spent a year nudging Americans to judge him less on legislative accomplishments and more on his executive actions. And now he has a fully Republican Congress that he can alternate butting up against and making deals with — but really not thinking much about it at all."
    “We were trapped in this debate of: ‘Is Obama helping or hurting?,’ ‘Was it a mistake to say his policies were on the ballot, or was it the right thing to do?’” a senior Obama aide said this week as the final details of American Alan Gross’ release from a Cuban prison — which enabled the deal with the island country — were being worked out. “We are more the masters of our own destiny than we were before.”

      "Republicans believe Obama is either delusional or in denial about the brutal election results for Democrats. But the White House started preparing for the post-election sprint well before November.
As they headed into the final weeks before the midterms that they always knew would be rough, the mood in the West Wing was dark. But, the Obama aide said, Obama and his staff were already plotting “how we were going to win the period between the midterms and the end of the year.”

        http://diaryofarepublicanhater.blogspot.com/2014/12/doesnt-seem-that-gop-win-has-exactly.htm

        Yet he is the one turning out to have political capital. 

        "President Obama’s policy change on Cuba was remarkable in many ways, not least because it came as such a surprise. The administration managed to keep the negotiations secret, then made a dramatic announcement on an issue that most people in politics hadn’t given much thought to in years. The result, particularly for a lame-duck president supposedly on the ropes after his party lost the midterm elections, was striking: Everyone was suddenly talking about Obama’s action — a widely popular one, it should be noted — and Republicans were stunned."

         "In his last two years in office, Obama seems to be creating a new version of the bully pulpit, one that takes executive action as the starting point but depends on Republicans playing their role. And what is that role? It’s equal-parts outrage and legislative nitpicking. To wit:
Opponents of President Obama’s diplomatic opening toward Cuba began plotting for the long road ahead to block the administration’s new policy, focusing on areas where congressional consent is necessary.
The most likely targets are funding for new diplomatic operations in Havana as well as the requirement for Senate confirmation of an ambassador, and while the issue has divided Republicans, key conservatives with long anti-Castro records occupy powerful positions in Congress and could thwart Obama’s overtures toward Cuban President Raúl Castro.
      "In other words, Obama seized the agenda, saw his initiative dominating the front pages and television news discussions and sent Republicans in Congress scrambling to find some legislative barrier they can throw in his path. The conflict, then, ends up pitting an active, forceful president against a reactive bunch of legislators spending their time devising arcane (and mostly fruitless) procedural schemes. They might be able to do something like holding up the confirmation of an ambassador, but that won’t keep the policy change from moving forward, and it will probably make them look petty and resentful in the process."

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/12/22/is-president-obama-reinventing-the-bully-pulpit/ 

     This is why they hate executive action so much: it makes them look silly and inconsequntial; mostly it makes them look impotent and powerless. They get furious and talk about red in front of a bull but can't actually do anything about it. 

      "This could well be the template for much of the next two years. As Glenn Thrush writes, Obama is “diving headlong into what amounts to a final campaign — this one to preserve his legacy, add policy points to the scoreboard, and — last but definitely not least — to inflict the same kind of punishment on his newly empowered Republican enemies, who delighted in tormenting him when he was on top.”

       "Moves like the Cuba change — or his executive actions on immigration and climate change — infuriate Republicans both because of their substance and because they shut them out of the process, leaving them able to do nothing but try to find some way to thwart what the president has initiated. Congress always takes secondary status to the president in political conflicts, but when the agenda no longer revolves around legislation, they’re degraded much further. While they may be able to force some issues into the news by passing legislation, Obama can do it much easier — and unlike them, he can actually see his actions take effect. Ironically, by moving the idea of significant legislation on major issues from an unlikely prospect to a virtual impossibility, the Republican takeover of Congress may have actually enhanced the power of Obama’s bully pulpit."
     Will you look at that? I get to agree with Scott Sumner on something:
      " And what’s up with the GOP?  Between defending torture and insisting that the 50 year old Cuban trade embargo will start paying off any day now, you have to wonder whether they have a secret plan to win in 2016 by locking up the reactionary vote."
       http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=28242

     

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